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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 52, Bears 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:38, 3rd and 9, on Rome Odunze — 7.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:38 · 3rd and 9
Rome Odunze
Bears
(8:38) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 31.
Detroit Lions 52–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:38, Bears +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D'Andre SwiftLionsQ1 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to DET 32 for 1 yard (32-B.Branch). FUMBLES (32-B.Branch), touched at DET 32, RECOVERED by DET-46-J.Campbell at DET 30. 46-J.Campbell to DET 32 for 2 yards (73-J.Jackson).
7.1pts
Rome OdunzeBearsQ2 2:00(2:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.9pts
What separated them
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.81 expected points per dropback, against Bears at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.46 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears163 of 170 plays carry both curves
(8:38) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.9 for LionsExpected points −3.90 for LionsThe model had Bears 10 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:38DET +8% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:38CHI +7% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to DET 32 for 1 yard (32-B.Branch). FUMBLES (32-B.Branch), touched at DET 32, RECOVERED by DET-46-J.Campbell at DET 30. 46-J.Campbell to DET 32 for 2 yards (73-J.Jackson).
2nd · 2:00DET +7% win prob(2:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:19CHI +6% win prob(13:19) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 37 for no gain (55-D.Barnes). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 14:15DET +5% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CHI 17 for 9 yards (1-J.Johnson, 53-T.Edwards).
1st · 3:23DET +5% win prob(3:23) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 1 for 32 yards (29-T.Stevenson, 31-K.Byard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:45 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th8:03Amon-Ra St. Brown·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+721–52
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryLions
Bears1–8Lions
339Total yards511
5.3Yards per play8.8
36%Success rate55%
54%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns6
9Explosive plays10
18First downs25
4Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.41Lions: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.81Lions: +0.81 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.46Bears: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.01Lions: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Lions’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Lions 8.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 14.0% in week 1 against 41.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Lions10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.4%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 25.9% and 1.5 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:38) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:38 · Bears · 3rd & 9 at DET 28 · gained 28 · +3.90 EP · +12.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 84 yards from the DET 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
47%
Yards
850
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4659%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.0250%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.3670%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3229%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Bears0Lions6
Bears0Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Bears 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bears6Lions7
Bears7Lions7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Lions 28
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 30 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 18
Bears7Lions13
Bears7Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Bears 1
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Lions 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 37
No good4 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Lions 41
Bears7Lions20
Bears7Lions21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Bears 8
Bears13Lions21
Bears14Lions21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Lions 6
Bears14Lions27
Bears14Lions28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Bears 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 25
Bears14Lions31
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Bears 11
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 46
Bears14Lions37
Bears14Lions38
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 43
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Bears 11
4th quarter39 plays
Bears14Lions44
Bears14Lions45
Touchdown2 plays
Bears20Lions45
Bears21Lions45
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Lions 3
Bears21Lions51
Bears21Lions52
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 23
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 33
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Lions 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -6
Closing total
46.5
Bears moneyline
+220
Lions moneyline
-270
Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 73 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Bears 6 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 12:02CHI +5% win prob(12:02) 59-G.Manu, 65-K.Eguakun and 95-P.O'Connor reported in as eligible. 39-J.Bates 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
1st · 12:17DET +5% win prob(12:17) 0-J.Gibbs left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
