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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 17 at Baltimore Ravens 41. Final.
Ravens -12.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Baltimore Ravens 41, Browns 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:12, 4th and 8 — 6.7 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:12 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Ravens closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Baltimore Ravens 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:12, Ravens +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRavensQ1 6:57(6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).
4.9pts
Nate WigginsRavensQ3 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins [0-R.Smith] at BAL 34. 2-N.Wiggins to CLE 5 for 61 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
5.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns169 of 178 plays carry both curves
(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Swing +6.7 for RavensExpected points +3.79 for RavensThe model had Browns 16 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:12CLE +7% win prob(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).
3rd · 11:46CLE +6% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins [0-R.Smith] at BAL 34. 2-N.Wiggins to CLE 5 for 61 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
1st · 6:57CLE +5% win prob(6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).
1st · 11:36BAL +4% win prob(11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
1st · 10:03BAL +4% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace to BAL 24 for 10 yards (9-G.Delpit).
1st · 2:10CLE +4% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 12 for -10 yards (sack split by 95-M.Garrett and 99-C.Thomas).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Loop's 43-yard field goal with 3:10 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:10Tyler Loop·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+30–3
Browns ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Browns: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.12Ravens: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Browns: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.32Ravens: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Browns: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.26Ravens: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 72 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Ravens’s 50 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Ravens 5.
NoteBrowns outgained Ravens 322-246 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens17.6%
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.5 pts, 16.1 points above their season mean of -8.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%73 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%73 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Full-time95%69 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Full-time90%66 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time88%64 snaps
79Dawand JonesT · Full-time86%63 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time82%60 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Rotational48%35 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Rotational38%28 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Rotational27%20 snaps
80Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational23%17 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Situational14%10 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Situational10%7 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Situational5%4 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational1%1 snap
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Mike Hall Jr.DTZak ZinterGShedeur SandersQBRaheim SandersRBJack ConklinT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:46) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins [0-R.Smith] at BAL 34. 2-N.Wiggins to CLE 5 for 61 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
Q3 11:46 · Browns · 3rd & 4 at CLE 46 · gained nothing · -7.27 EP · −10.4% win probability
167 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 76 yards from the BAL 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
564
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35-0.3471%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1869%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1876%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1156%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.6633%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 42
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 31
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 19
Browns0Ravens3
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 25
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 45
Browns0Ravens9
Browns0Ravens10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 15
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Ravens 40
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 15
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 46
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Ravens 13
Browns3Ravens10
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Ravens 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 32
3rd quarter43 plays
Browns3Ravens13
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Browns 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 46
Browns3Ravens19
Browns3Ravens20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 2
Browns9Ravens20
Browns10Ravens20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Ravens 18
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Browns 34
4th quarter46 plays
Browns10Ravens26
Browns10Ravens27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 14
Browns10Ravens33
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Ravens 33
Browns10Ravens34
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 42
Browns10Ravens40
Browns10Ravens41
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 23
Browns16Ravens41
Browns17Ravens41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Ravens 8
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
