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Denver Broncos 28 at Indianapolis Colts 29. Final.
Broncos -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Indianapolis Colts 29, Broncos 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:00, 1st and 10, on Spencer Shrader — 37.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:00 · 1st and 10
Spencer Shrader
Colts
(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
O 43.5 ✓
Dome
Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:00, Colts +37.3% win probability on one snap.
37.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonathan TaylorBroncosQ4 0:17(:17) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DEN 42 for -2 yards (0-J.Cooper).
21.8pts
Spencer ShraderColtsQ4 0:03(:03) 3-S.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PENALTY on DEN-92-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.
32.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Broncos162 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing +37.3 for ColtsExpected points +0.60 for ColtsThe model had Broncos 4 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:00IND +37% win prob(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
4th · 0:03IND +32% win prob(:03) 3-S.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PENALTY on DEN-92-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.
4th · 0:17DEN +22% win prob(:17) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DEN 42 for -2 yards (0-J.Cooper).
4th · 1:50IND +20% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to DEN 43 for 7 yards (2-P.Surtain).
4th · 10:13IND +18% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard pushed ob at DEN 12 for 68 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
4th · 3:19DEN +17% win prob(3:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Spencer Shrader's 45-yard field goal with 0:00 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:54Spencer Shrader·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
1st8:30Marvin Mims Jr.·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–3
1st4:22Spencer Shrader·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+37–6
3rd5:46Spencer Shrader·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+328–23
4th8:37Spencer Shrader·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+328–26
4th0:00Spencer Shrader·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+328–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryColts
Broncos2–6Colts
324Total yards473
6.0Yards per play7.1
46%Success rate49%
44%Third-down rate46%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
18First downs22
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Broncos: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Broncos: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.30Colts: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.05Colts: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 54 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Colts’s 67 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Colts 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 1.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 41.2% in week 1 against 15.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Colts0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.7 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Spencer Shrader+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 0:00 · Colts · 1st & 10 at DEN 27 · gained nothing · +0.60 EP · +41.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 81 yards from the IND 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
51%
Yards
797
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2950%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2860%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1575%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.7314%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.6440%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Broncos0Colts3
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Broncos 11
Broncos6Colts3
Broncos7Colts3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Colts 23
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Broncos7Colts6
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 10
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 42
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Broncos 7
2nd quarter51 plays
Broncos7Colts12
Broncos7Colts13
Touchdown4 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.1 seconds
Broncos13Colts13
Broncos14Colts13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Colts 2
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Colts 28 to midfield
Broncos20Colts13
Broncos21Colts13
Touchdown14 plays, from midfield to the Colts 1
Broncos21Colts19
Broncos21Colts20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Broncos 7
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Broncos27Colts20
Broncos28Colts20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Colts 5
Broncos28Colts23
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Broncos 6
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Colts 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 25
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 30 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from midfield to the Colts 26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos28Colts26
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Broncos 10
No good12 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Colts 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos28Colts29
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Broncos 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
