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2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Denver Broncos

28

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

29

DEN -2.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:00, IND +37% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑DEN ↓
Q4 · 0:00DEN 28 — IND 29IND ball · 1st & 10IND 63%

(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:00IND +37% win prob(:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
  2. Q4 · 0:03IND +32% win prob(:03) 3-S.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PENALTY on DEN-92-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.
  3. Q4 · 0:17DEN +22% win prob(:17) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DEN 42 for -2 yards (0-J.Cooper).
  4. Q4 · 1:50IND +20% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to DEN 43 for 7 yards (2-P.Surtain).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:54IND Field goal

    (11:54) 3-S.Shrader 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — IND 3
  2. Q1 · 8:30DEN Touchdown

    (8:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — IND 3
  3. Q1 · 4:22IND Field goal

    (4:22) 3-S.Shrader 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — IND 6
  4. Q2 · 14:16IND Touchdown

    (14:16) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — IND 13
  5. Q2 · 10:46DEN Touchdown

    (10:46) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — IND 13
  6. Q2 · 3:06DEN Touchdown

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — IND 13
  7. Q2 · 1:36IND Touchdown

    (1:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — IND 20
  8. Q3 · 11:17DEN Touchdown

    (11:17) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 28 — IND 20
  9. Q3 · 5:46IND Field goal

    (5:46) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: DEN 28 — IND 23
  10. Q4 · 8:37IND Field goal

    (8:37) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: DEN 28 — IND 26
  11. Q4 · 0:00IND Field goal

    (:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: DEN 28 — IND 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosColts
Offensive plays5467
Total yards324473 (edge)
Yards per play6.07.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.19 (edge)0.15
Success rate46%49% (edge)
Dropback rate59%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.05
Third downs4/96/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps1822 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

23/34, 316 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.0 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

22/30, 206 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.3 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

25 att, 165 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

14 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

8/9 for 89 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Tyler WarrenTE

4/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2810463:09Field goal +3
2DENDEN 368643:27Touchdown +7
3INDIND 309554:05Field goal +3
4DENDEN 35571:37Punt
5INDIND 158623:30Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 339673:30Touchdown +7
7INDIND 287273:14Turnover on downs
8DEN5011294:25Touchdown +7
9INDIND 198811:32Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 32541:13Punt
11INDIND 7110:18End of half
12DENDEN 409603:47Touchdown +7
13INDIND 4011475:31Field goal +3
14DENDEN 358252:59Punt
15INDIND 89474:41Turnover on downs
16DEN50371:37Interception
17INDIND 97812:52Field goal +3
18DENDEN 3511615:18Missed field goal
19INDIND 329263:15Field goal +3

11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix22/302063108.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins14765.413.1
Bo Nix3206.701.1
Troy Franklin11111.000.7
RJ Harvey581.60-2.6
Tyler Badie133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Troy Franklin8989130%5.8
Marvin Mims Jr.222417%1.7
Tyler Badie221907%2.4
Pat Bryant2318010%2.2
RJ Harvey121607%0.6
Evan Engram121207%-0.3
Adam Trautman3310110%1.5
J.K. Dobbins12907%0.3
Courtland Sutton146013%-5.7
Trent Sherfield11303%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Pat Surtain II920.001
Talanoa Hufanga550.000
Alex Singleton450.000
Brandon Jones340.001
Justin Strnad231.000
Riley Moss410.001
Zach Allen140.000
Jonathon Cooper220.000
Nik Bonitto120.000
Dondrea Tillman120.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones23/3431610111.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor251656.603.0
Daniel Jones620.31-0.5
Tyler Warren100.00-3.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Warren4779021%1.6
Alec Pierce4568015%2.9
Josh Downs6851024%2.1
Jonathan Taylor225016%4.9
Michael Pittman4540015%2.9
Adonai Mitchell2420012%0.2
Mo Alie-Cox11803%0.4
DJ Giddens01003%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross520.001
Joe Bachie340.000
DeForest Buckner600.000
Grover Stewart420.000
Zaire Franklin320.001
Mekhi Blackmon410.000
Kenny Moore II220.000
Camryn Bynum210.011
Xavien Howard120.000
Rodney Thomas100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Closing total
43.5
DEN moneyline
-130
IND moneyline
+110

Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 57 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
DEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Shane Steichen