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Jacksonville Jaguars 27 at Cincinnati Bengals 31. Final.
Bengals -3.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Cincinnati Bengals 31, Jaguars 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:19, 3rd and 1, on Jake Browning — 25.9 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Cincinnati Bengals 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, Bengals +25.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:19 · 3rd and 1
Jake Browning
Bengals
(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tee HigginsBengalsQ3 2:46(2:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.6pts
Devin LloydJaguarsQ4 5:22(5:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at CIN 34. 0-D.Lloyd to CIN 12 for 22 yards (30-C.Brown).
22.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Jaguars170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +25.9 for BengalsExpected points +2.54 for BengalsThe model had Jaguars 11 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:19CIN +26% win prob(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:22JAX +23% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at CIN 34. 0-D.Lloyd to CIN 12 for 22 yards (30-C.Brown).
3rd · 2:46CIN +21% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:54CIN +20% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Iosivas (12-T.Hunter). PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at CIN 33 - No Play.
1st · 4:57JAX +14% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 12-T.Hunter INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Hill [91-T.Hendrickson] at CIN -3. Touchback.
3rd · 7:24JAX +14% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 31. 42-A.Wingard to CIN 30 for 39 yards (71-A.Mims).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Browning's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:19 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th11:47Cam Little·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+327–24
4th0:19Jake Browning·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBengals
Jaguars6–2Bengals
400Total yards350
5.7Yards per play5.4
50%Success rate43%
46%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays5
20First downs22
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.01Bengals: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.04Bengals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Jaguars: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 70 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 6, Bengals 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 51.4% in week 1 against 72.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Bengals9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 18.8%, 5.6 points above their season mean of 13.2% and 1.3 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Walker LittleT · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%71 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
73Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Full-time94%67 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Full-time90%64 snaps
5Dyami BrownWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation66%47 snaps
12Travis HunterWR · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
33Bhayshul TutenRB · Rotational25%18 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Situational24%17 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Situational17%12 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Situational15%11 snaps
84Hunter LongTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Montaric BrownCBBJ Green IIDEDanny StriggowDEKhalen SaundersDTWyatt MilumGCody SchraderRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Nick MullensQB
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%69 snaps
75Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Dylan FairchildG · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
71Amarius MimsT · Full-time91%63 snaps
5Tee HigginsWR · Full-time87%60 snaps
80Andrei IosivasWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
30Chase BrownRB · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
6Jake BrowningQB · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Rotational30%21 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
86Noah FantTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
82Mitchell TinsleyWR · Situational14%10 snaps
61Cody FordT · Situational9%6 snaps
15Charlie JonesWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Marco WilsonCBHoward Cross IIIDTMcKinnley JacksonDTCam GrandyTEJermaine BurtonWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Browning up+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:19 · Bengals · 3rd & goal at JAX 1 · gained 1 · +2.54 EP · +34.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 92 yards from the CIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
49%
Yards
750
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0475%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0165%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4654%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2278%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0640%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Jaguars6Bengals0
Jaguars7Bengals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Bengals 9
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Bengals 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.3 seconds
Jaguars7Bengals6
Jaguars7Bengals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Jaguars 4
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Jaguars13Bengals7
Jaguars14Bengals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Bengals 8
Punt11 plays, from the Bengals 34 to midfield
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 17
Jaguars14Bengals10
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jaguars17Bengals10
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Bengals 22
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Jaguars 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Jaguars17Bengals16
Jaguars17Bengals17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Jaguars 13
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Jaguars23Bengals17
Jaguars24Bengals17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Jaguars24Bengals23
Jaguars24Bengals24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
4th quarter58 plays
Jaguars27Bengals24
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Bengals 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars27Bengals30
Jaguars27Bengals31
Touchdown23 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
