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2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

27

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

31

CIN -3.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, CIN +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:19JAX 27 — CIN 30CIN ball · 3rd & 1CIN 69%

(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:19CIN +26% win prob(:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 5:22JAX +23% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at CIN 34. 0-D.Lloyd to CIN 12 for 22 yards (30-C.Brown).
  3. Q3 · 2:46CIN +21% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 1:54CIN +20% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Iosivas (12-T.Hunter). PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at CIN 33 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:57JAX Touchdown

    (10:57) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 5-D.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — CIN 0
  2. Q1 · 0:10CIN Touchdown

    (:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 11:00JAX Touchdown

    (11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 3:32CIN Field goal

    (3:32) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — CIN 10
  5. Q2 · 1:39JAX Field goal

    (1:39) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — CIN 10
  6. Q3 · 11:09CIN Touchdown

    (11:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-J.Hines-Allen]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — CIN 17
  7. Q3 · 4:13JAX Touchdown

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 1-T.Etienne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — CIN 17
  8. Q3 · 2:46CIN Touchdown

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — CIN 24
  9. Q4 · 11:47JAX Field goal

    (11:47) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — CIN 24
  10. Q4 · 0:19CIN Touchdown

    (:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — CIN 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBengals
Offensive plays7065
Total yards400 (edge)350
Yards per play5.7 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.01
Success rate50% (edge)43%
Dropback rate63%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)0.08
Third downs6/13 (edge)6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)45 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2022 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/42, 271 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

5.0 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

21/32, 241 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

14 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

16 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

14/16 for 165 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

5/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 3111694:09Touchdown +7
2CINCIN 265-21:35Punt
3JAXJAX 288644:24Interception
4CINCIN 2012804:45Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 2510754:13Touchdown +7
6CINCIN 348122:58Punt
7JAXJAX 13340:52Interception
8CINJAX 307173:36Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 358461:53Field goal +3
10CINCIN 405241:09Interception
11JAXJAX 27290:26End of half
12CINCIN 249763:55Touchdown +7
13JAXJAX 19591:46Punt
14CINCIN 234162:09Interception
15JAXCIN 306353:02Touchdown +7
16CINJAX 475471:29Touchdown +7
17JAXJAX 2514535:56Field goal +3
18CINCIN 375-20:58Punt
19JAXJAX 1210414:42Punt
20CINCIN 123110:51Interception
21JAXCIN 12451:30Turnover on downs
22CINCIN 816713:24Touchdown +7
23JAXJAX 352-100:18End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence24/422713215.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne14715.10-0.6
Bhayshul Tuten8425.301.9
LeQuint Allen Jr.2136.500.7
Dyami Brown199.000.8
Trevor Lawrence242.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington5576012%7.2
Dyami Brown5757117%5.4
Brian Thomas Jr.41249029%-7.1
Bhayshul Tuten223215%4.1
Travis Hunter3622015%-4.9
Travis Etienne231817%1.3
Brenton Strange3517012%0.1
Tim Patrick01002%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jourdan Lewis530.001
Foye Oluokun341.001
Eric Murray510.011
Devin Lloyd230.011
Travon Walker321.001
Josh Hines-Allen320.000
Tyson Campbell320.003
DaVon Hamilton220.000
Travis Hunter200.001
Andrew Wingard200.011

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jake Browning21/32241231-2.0
Joe Burrow7/13761020.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown16472.90-1.2
Jake Browning111.012.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase1416165137%11.1
Tee Higgins3856119%3.0
Noah Fant342809%-0.0
Chase Brown231807%2.1
Mike Gesicki341809%-4.5
Mitchell Tinsley111312%1.7
Andrei Iosivas1512012%-8.5
Drew Sample12705%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Geno Stone720.000
Daxton Hill900.011
Logan Wilson440.001
Demetrius Knight Jr.230.000
Tedarrell Slaton310.000
Oren Burks220.000
Jordan Battle130.011
Kris Jenkins210.000
Cam Taylor-Britt210.002
Trey Hendrickson211.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Closing total
49.5
JAX moneyline
+160
CIN moneyline
-192

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 58 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
85°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
JAX 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Zac Taylor