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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Las Vegas Raiders 9. Final.
Chargers -3.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Raiders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 2nd and 3, on Quentin Johnston — 10.9 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 2nd and 3
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–9. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Chargers +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daiyan HenleyChargersQ1 14:53(14:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (32-A.Gilman) at LV 33. 0-D.Henley to LV 25 for 8 yards (87-M.Mayer).
7.2pts
Dont'e Thornton Jr.RaidersQ1 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 10-D.Thornton to LAC 40 for 20 yards (32-A.Gilman).
7.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — -0.20 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.67 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.9 for RaidersExpected points −5.36 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 10 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00LV +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:46LV +7% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 10-D.Thornton to LAC 40 for 20 yards (32-A.Gilman).
1st · 14:53LAC +7% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (32-A.Gilman) at LV 33. 0-D.Henley to LV 25 for 8 yards (87-M.Mayer).
1st · 9:53LAC +7% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LAC 36 for -10 yards (52-K.Mack).
1st · 1:54LV +7% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 24 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at LV 24.
1st · 9:07LV +7% win prob(9:07) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keenan Allen's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:28 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:47Cameron Dicker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+33–0
1st9:07Daniel Carlson·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–3
3rd7:33Cameron Dicker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+320–6
4th11:19Daniel Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+320–9
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryRaiders
Chargers7–2Raiders
319Total yards218
6.0Yards per play3.4
43%Success rate31%
36%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays6
14First downs13
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Chargers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.39Raiders: −0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Chargers: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.46Raiders: −0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.67Chargers: −0.67 expected points added per play
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 53 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 65 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Raiders 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +14.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
LV's blitz rate sent, 37.5%, sat 15.5 points above their season number of 22.0% — they sent pressure by 2.3 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Raiders9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteLV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 22.0% and 2.3 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:00 · Chargers · 2nd & 3 at LAC 40 · gained 60 · +5.36 EP · +11.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 91 yards from the LAC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
39%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.4078%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.4068%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.4660%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3550%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.8938%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.3740%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Chargers3Raiders0
Field goal4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 20
Chargers3Raiders3
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Chargers 26
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 19
Chargers9Raiders3
Chargers10Raiders3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Raiders 7
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Chargers10Raiders6
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Chargers 13
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 36
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Chargers16Raiders6
Chargers17Raiders6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Chargers 12
3rd quarter30 plays
Chargers20Raiders6
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Raiders 1
The period ended15 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Chargers 32
4th quarter47 plays
Chargers20Raiders9
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 14
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to midfield
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 15
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 40
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 34
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
