For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Los Angeles Rams 33 at Tennessee Titans 19. Final.
Rams -5.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Los Angeles Rams 33, Titans 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:37, 4th and 11, on Joey Slye — 11.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:37 · 4th and 11
Joey Slye
Titans
(3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Rams closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Rams 33–19. Biggest swing: Q3 3:37, Titans +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Elic AyomanorTitansQ2 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [10-J.Stewart].
10.4pts
Davante AdamsRamsQ3 12:52(12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to TEN 19 for 26 yards (38-L.Sneed). Penalty on TEN-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined.
10.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Titans at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.03 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Rams166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Swing +11.5 for TitansExpected points +2.90 for TitansThe model had Titans 14 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:37TEN +11% win prob(3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
2nd · 0:49TEN +10% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [10-J.Stewart].
3rd · 12:52TEN +10% win prob(12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to TEN 19 for 26 yards (38-L.Sneed). Penalty on TEN-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 11:15LA +10% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 21 for -8 yards (0-B.Young). FUMBLES (0-B.Young) [0-B.Young], touched at TEN 19, RECOVERED by LA-53-N.Landman at TEN 21.
3rd · 1:21TEN +10% win prob(1:21) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at TEN 1 for 7 yards (29-J.Brownlee). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:44TEN +9% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davis Allen's 8-yard touchdown catch with 1:21 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
2nd0:03Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+310–13
3rd9:33Joshua Karty·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+313–13
3rd3:37Joey Slye·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+313–16
3rd1:21Davis Allen·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+720–16
4th9:44Davante Adams·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+727–16
4th6:48Blake Corum·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by A.Key+633–16
4th2:44Joey Slye·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+333–19
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryTitans
Rams8–0Titans
445Total yards252
7.8Yards per play3.9
49%Success rate39%
45%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays5
20First downs17
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Rams: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Rams: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.03Titans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Titans’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Titans 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +4.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Titans17.6%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 29.3 points below their season mean of 49.3% and 1.5 times their own 19.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Justin DedichG · Every snap100%61 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%61 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time80%49 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation70%43 snaps
12Puka NacuaWR · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation64%39 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Nacua left+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:48) 12-P.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:48 · Rams · 4th & 1 at TEN 45 · gained 45 · +6.22 EP · +19.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 72 yards from the LA 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
46%
Yards
691
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.2160%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.3368%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4525%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 33
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams6Titans0
Rams7Titans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Titans 45
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 42
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 48
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams7Titans3
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Rams 35
Rams10Titans3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Titans 3
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Rams 43
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.0 seconds
Rams10Titans9
Rams10Titans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Rams 9
Intercepted2 plays
Rams10Titans13
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 19
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Rams13Titans13
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Titans 3
Rams13Titans16
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Rams 35
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Rams19Titans16
Rams20Titans16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Titans 8
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 19
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Rams26Titans16
Rams27Titans16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 16
Punt6 plays
Rams33Titans16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Titans 1
Rams33Titans19
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Rams 17
The period ended12 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
