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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q4 7:18 — 31.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 33–27. Biggest swing: Q4 7:18, Patriots +31.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:18
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.27 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Antonio Gibson's 90-yard return touchdown with 7:18 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Mack Hollins8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Maye · kick no good, hit right upright+66–0Kayshon Boutte16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Maye · kick no good, wide right+612–0Antonio Gibson90-yd return TD90-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+730–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins outgained Patriots 358-338 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's blitz rate sent, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 57.6% in week 1 against 26.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.4% in week 1 against 48.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-0.6 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 52 snaps
Dolphins-2.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Patriots48.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 early downs
Dolphins62.5%inside their normal wobble · +11.6 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Patriots30.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Dolphins8.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −21.4 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.0%.
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Patriots2.7%off script — sat back · −25.5 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−2.29× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Dolphins26.7%leaned — sat back · −10.1 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots18.9%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Dolphins10.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 28.2% and 2.3 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
26/32, 315 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
9.9 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
19/23, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.0 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rhamondre Stevenson banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 26.3 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/23, 230 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.2 | +5.8 | 93% | 97% | 31% | 0% | 11 car, 30 yd · 8/10, 92 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 21.2 | +8.3 | 65% | 70% | 22% | 19% | 11 car, 54 yd · 5/5, 88 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/32, 315 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 17.8 | +6.5 | 82% | 89% | 19% | 39% | 5/6, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +6.1 | 84% | 92% | 22% | 50% | 6/7, 109 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 9.8 | +5.9 | 17% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +4.5 | 61% | 59% | 6% | 2% | 3 car, 23 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +5.8 | 72% | 73% | 4% | 12% | 1/1, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.6 | 65% | 57% | 9% | 12% | 1/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −0.7 | 52% | 57% | 22% | 25% | 4/5, 32 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +1.2 | 62% | 53% | 13% | 21% | 3/3, 38 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 6.0 | +1.7 | 32% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 3 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 30 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.4 | 28% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 3.3 | +0.3 | 35% | 30% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 2.3 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.6 | 85% | 87% | 13% | 9% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 1.8 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 25% | 37% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:18 · Patriots · Kickoff at MIA 35 · gained nothing · +6.01 EP · +30.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 83 yards from the MIA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots6
Dolphins0Patriots12Dolphins0Patriots12Dolphins6Patriots12Dolphins7Patriots15Dolphins7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots15Dolphins13Patriots15Dolphins14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots15Dolphins17Patriots15Dolphins20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots21Dolphins20Patriots23Dolphins20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Patriots23Dolphins26Patriots23Dolphins27Patriots29Dolphins27Patriots30Dolphins27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots33Dolphins27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/23 | 230 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +15.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Antonio Gibson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 22% | +6.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 26/32 | 315 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +9.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_NE_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 60 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 27 |
| 5.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 13% |
| +2.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 22% | +3.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +3.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 4% | +3.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −1.7 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Austin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 7 | 109 | 0 | 22% | +8.2 |
| De'Von Achane | 8 | 10 | 92 | 1 | 31% | +3.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 19% | +5.5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Dodson | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Butler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Goode | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chop Robinson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
