For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Patriots156 of 167 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 7:18Patriots 29 — Dolphins 27NE ballMIA 71%
Patriots 29%Dolphins 71%
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.5 for DolphinsExpected points −6.01 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:18MIA +32% win prob47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:39NE +22% win prob(7:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:07MIA +20% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill to NE 27 for 47 yards (31-C.Woodson).
3rd · 1:49MIA +18% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 38-R.Stevenson to MIA 21 for 55 yards (20-J.Brooks).
4th · 0:53NE +15% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).
4th · 2:21NE +15% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 6-M.Washington INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Mapu at NE 42. 15-M.Mapu to MIA 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Gibson's 90-yard return touchdown with 7:18 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:34Mack Hollins·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Mayefrom Drake Maye · kick no good, hit right upright+66–0
1st0:55Kayshon Boutte·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Mayefrom Drake Maye · kick no good, wide right+612–0
2nd11:25Jaylen Waddle·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+712–7
2nd1:59Andy Borregales·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+315–7
2nd0:41De'Von Achane·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+715–14
3rd10:46Riley Patterson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+315–17
3rd3:42Riley Patterson·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+315–20
4th7:39Malik Washington·74-yd return TD74-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+723–27
4th7:18Antonio Gibson·90-yd return TD90-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+730–27
4th1:52Andy Borregales·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+333–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Patriots6–2Dolphins
338Total yards358
6.4Yards per play6.9
51%Success rate48%
58%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
18First downs16
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Patriots: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.17Dolphins: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Patriots: +0.62 expected points added per play
+0.27Dolphins: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Dolphins 3.
NoteDolphins outgained Patriots 358-338 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's blitz rate sent, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 1.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 57.6% in week 1 against 26.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.4% in week 1 against 48.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Dolphins10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 28.2% and 2.3 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
58Jared WilsonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%60 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time85%51 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Rotational32%19 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Situational17%10 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Situational17%10 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Christian GonzalezCBCaedan WallaceGEric GregoryNTKeion WhiteOLBTommy DeVitoQBEfton Chism IIIWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Patterson kicks+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:18 · Patriots · Kickoff at MIA 35 · gained nothing · +6.01 EP · +30.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 83 yards from the MIA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
43%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.6348%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3235%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR19+0.7384%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.0544%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11-0.5873%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.44100%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.10100%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots6Dolphins0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Dolphins 8
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Patriots12Dolphins0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 16
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 26
2nd quarter42 plays
Patriots12Dolphins6
Patriots12Dolphins7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Patriots 18
Patriots15Dolphins7
Field goal21 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 4
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Patriots15Dolphins13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Patriots 29
Patriots15Dolphins14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Patriots15Dolphins17
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Patriots 22
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 20
Patriots15Dolphins20
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Patriots 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Patriots21Dolphins20
Patriots23Dolphins20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Dolphins 6
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Patriots23Dolphins26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 24
Patriots23Dolphins27
Patriots29Dolphins27
Patriots30Dolphins27
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to midfield
Patriots33Dolphins27
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Patriots 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
