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2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

33

Miami Dolphins

27

MIA -1.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓

New England Patriots 33–27. Biggest swing: Q4 7:18, MIA +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑NE ↓
Q4 · 7:18NE 29 — MIA 27NE ballMIA 71%

47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:18MIA +32% win prob47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 7:39NE +22% win prob(7:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 14:07MIA +20% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill to NE 27 for 47 yards (31-C.Woodson).
  4. Q3 · 1:49MIA +18% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 38-R.Stevenson to MIA 21 for 55 yards (20-J.Brooks).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:34NE Touchdown

    (9:34) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NE 6 — MIA 0
  2. Q1 · 0:55NE Touchdown

    (:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NE 12 — MIA 0
  3. Q2 · 11:25MIA Touchdown

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 12 — MIA 7
  4. Q2 · 1:59NE Field goal

    (1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 7
  5. Q2 · 0:41MIA Touchdown

    (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 14
  6. Q3 · 10:46MIA Field goal

    (10:46) 47-R.Patterson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 17
  7. Q3 · 3:42MIA Field goal

    (3:42) 47-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 20
  8. Q3 · 0:12NE Touchdown

    (:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-25-T.Dodson, Defensive Holding, declined. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NE 23 — MIA 20
  9. Q4 · 7:39MIA Touchdown

    (7:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 23 — MIA 27
  10. Q4 · 7:18NE Touchdown

    47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 30 — MIA 27
  11. Q4 · 1:52NE Field goal

    (1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 33 — MIA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsDolphins
Offensive plays5352
Total yards338358 (edge)
Yards per play6.46.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.34 (edge)0.17
Success rate51% (edge)48%
Dropback rate57%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.62 (edge)0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.02 (edge)-0.07
Third downs7/12 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)16
Sacks taken3 (edge)5
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Dolphins outgained Patriots 358–338 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

26/32, 315 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.9 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

19/23, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

11 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Drake MayeQB

10 att, 31 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/7 for 109 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

8/10 for 92 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 3212685:31Touchdown +6
2MIAMIA 25551:35Punt
3NENE 3012757:05Touchdown +6
4MIAMIA 1710834:30Touchdown +7
5NENE 2516819:23Field goal +3
6MIAMIA 238771:23Touchdown +7
7NENE 4200:33End of half
8MIAMIA 298644:19Field goal +3
9NENE 175-81:28Punt
10MIAMIA 449355:36Field goal +3
11NENE 177953:31Touchdown +8
12MIAMIA 317162:59Punt
13NENE 137194:49Defensive touchdown
14NE—200:12Defensive touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 1310454:54Interception
16NEMIA 38480:25Field goal +3
17MIAMIA 408330:59Turnover on downs
18NENE 37200:48End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 95 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye19/2323020315.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson11544.901.3
Drake Maye10313.112.0
Antonio Gibson5275.400.2
TreVeyon Henderson3103.30-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson5588022%6.8
Austin Hooper3338013%2.3
Stefon Diggs4532022%3.4
TreVeyon Henderson223009%3.3
Kayshon Boutte111614%3.3
Hunter Henry139013%-1.7
Mack Hollins12819%1.7
DeMario Douglas11804%0.6
Antonio Gibson11104%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylinn Hawkins530.000
Christian Elliss430.000
Craig Woodson420.000
Marcus Jones410.000
Kyle Dugger310.000
Carlton Davis III220.000
Robert Spillane301.001
Harold Landry III211.000
Alex Austin300.000
Dell Pettus110.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa26/323152159.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane11302.70-2.8
Malik Washington3237.701.1
Ollie Gordon II188.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill67109022%8.2
De'Von Achane81092131%3.6
Jaylen Waddle5668119%5.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine231809%1.5
Alec Ingold221306%0.4
Dee Eskridge11803%0.4
Ollie Gordon II11503%-0.0
Malik Washington12206%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyrel Dodson630.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick440.000
Jordyn Brooks441.000
Bradley Chubb321.000
Matthew Butler120.000
Willie Gay Jr.120.000
Cameron Goode120.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu210.000
Rasul Douglas110.001
Jack Jones200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Closing total
43.5
NE moneyline
+105
MIA moneyline
-125

Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 60 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
89°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.