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Dallas Cowboys 40, Giants 37 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:33, 1st and 10, on Malik Nabers — 59.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 1st and 10
Malik Nabers
Giants
(:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 40–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Giants +59.4% win probability on one snap.
59.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wan'Dale RobinsonGiantsQ4 2:50(2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
37.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysOT 3:01(3:01) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NYG 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 21 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 2-J.Thomas).
35.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 8 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 7 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants204 of 221 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −59.4 for CowboysExpected points −5.49 for CowboysThe model had Giants 15 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:33DAL +59% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:50DAL +38% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 3:01DAL +36% win prob(3:01) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NYG 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 21 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 2-J.Thomas).
Overtime · 2:09DAL +29% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at DAL 30. 6-D.Wilson to DAL 30 for no gain (1-M.Nabers).
Overtime · 4:59DAL +27% win prob(4:59) 12-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-J.Tolbert.
4th · 0:05DAL +26% win prob(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aubrey's 46-yard field goal with 0:04 left in overtime put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:15Graham Gano·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
1st1:09Graham Gano·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+36–0
2nd8:30Brandon Aubrey·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+36–3
2nd5:43Malik Nabers·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+713–3
2nd2:16KaVontae Turpin·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+713–10
4th2:50Wan'Dale Robinson·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+730–27
4th0:56George Pickens·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+730–34
4th0:33Malik Nabers·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+737–34
4th0:05Brandon Aubrey·64-yd field goal64-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+337–37
Overtime0:04Brandon Aubrey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+337–40
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants4–2Cowboys
506Total yards478
7.8Yards per play5.8
46%Success rate46%
43%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
22First downs26
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Giants ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.13Cowboys: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Giants: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.17Cowboys: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Giants: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 65 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 83 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Giants 8, Cowboys 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Cowboys15.6%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.6 pts, 12.7 points above their season mean of -5.0 pts and 1.4 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Wilson pass+50% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:33 · Giants · 1st & 10 at DAL 48 · gained 48 · +5.49 EP · +50.4% win probability
202 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 221 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 202 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 215. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 90 yards from the DAL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
221 of 221 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
221
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
46%
Yards
984
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1368%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2276%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2256%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0758%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1357%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
221 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
221 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Giants3Cowboys0
Field goal21 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 15
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 41
Giants6Cowboys0
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Cowboys 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Cowboys 34
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 25
Giants6Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants12Cowboys3
Giants13Cowboys3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Cowboys 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Giants13Cowboys9
Giants13Cowboys10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Giants 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 28
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Giants 48
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 10
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Giants13Cowboys16
Giants13Cowboys17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Giants 30
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Giants16Cowboys17
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Cowboys 10
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Giants 23
4th quarter60 plays
Giants16Cowboys20
Field goal3 plays
Giants22Cowboys20
Giants23Cowboys20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Cowboys 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Giants23Cowboys26
Giants23Cowboys27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Giants 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants29Cowboys27
Giants30Cowboys27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Cowboys 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Giants30Cowboys33
Giants30Cowboys34
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Giants 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Giants36Cowboys34
Giants37Cowboys34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Cowboys 48
Giants37Cowboys37
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Giants 46
Overtime29 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 43
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 35
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 43
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Giants37Cowboys40
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
