For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q4 13:07, 2nd and 6, on Andrew Mukuba — 28.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:07 · 2nd and 6
Andrew Mukuba
Eagles
(13:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba [98-J.Carter] at PHI 0. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (71-J.Simmons).
Philadelphia Eagles 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:07, Eagles +28.7% win probability on one snap.
28.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 1 giveaway.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(13:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba [98-J.Carter] at PHI 0. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (71-J.Simmons).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Elliott's 51-yard field goal with 11:33 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jake Elliott51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+313–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryChiefs
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 56 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Chiefs 3.
Chiefs outgained Eagles 294-218 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's blitz rate sent, 64.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 12.6 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 17.6% in week 1 against 39.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 1 against 23.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-11.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 56 snaps
Chiefs4.4 ptsright on their number · +0.5 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles41.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 41 early downs
Chiefs66.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Eagles12.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.4 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Chiefs26.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles25.0%right on their number · −7.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs60.0%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Eagles39.5%leaned — sent pressure · +13.3 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs64.0%off script — sent pressure · +24.3 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 33%
Tendencies room →Eagles23.7%leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs16.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
KC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 64.0%, 24.3 points above their season mean of 39.7% and 2.1 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
16/29, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.2 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
15/22, 101 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.9 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Patrick Mahomes banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 22.1 | +6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/29, 187 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.4 | +1.6 | 83% | 80% | 10% | 0% | 22 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +5.4 | 75% | 66% | 17% | 55% | 2/5, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/22, 101 yd · 9 car, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | −0.6 | 77% | 66% | 21% | 12% | 4/6, 61 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −0.4 | 75% | 92% | 29% | 62% | 4/6, 53 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +0.7 | 75% | 66% | 17% | 7% | 5/5, 30 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.7 | −2.7 | 97% | 96% | 38% | 35% | 5/8, 27 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 4.4 | −0.5 | 40% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 31 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 3.9 | −3.1 | 58% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 10 car, 22 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| AJ DillonRB | 1.9 | +0.2 | 17% | 16% | 0% | — | 3 car, 19 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.4 | 88% | 84% | 10% | 5% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.9 | 70% | 61% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 57% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 37% | 72% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −6.6 | 65% | 47% | 17% | 17% | 1/5, 1 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brashard SmithRB | 0.2 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba [98-J.Carter] at PHI 0. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (71-J.Simmons).
Q4 13:07 · Chiefs · 2nd & goal at PHI 6 · gained nothing · -7.05 EP · −30.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 74 yards from the KC 20 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Chiefs0Eagles7Chiefs0Eagles7Chiefs3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Eagles7Chiefs9Eagles7Chiefs10Eagles10Chiefs10How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Eagles13Chiefs10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Eagles19Chiefs10Eagles20Chiefs10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Eagles20Chiefs16Eagles20Chiefs17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/22 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 29% | +2.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 38% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jihaad Campbell | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_PHI_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 37 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
| 66 |
| 9.4 |
| 1 |
| +6.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 21% | −0.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 17% | +3.1 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17% | −0.0 |
| Nikko Remigio | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17% | −4.0 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
