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Seattle Seahawks 31 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Steelers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Seattle Seahawks 31, Steelers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:46 — 23.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:46
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
O 40.5 ✓
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 12:46, Seahawks +23.9% win probability on one snap.
23.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick HerbigSteelersQ2 3:41(3:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 51-N.Herbig (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. 51-N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (40-R.Ouzts; 88-A.Barner).
20.2pts
Derion KendrickSeahawksQ3 4:17(4:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at SEA -7. Touchback.
16.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Seahawks157 of 166 plays carry both curves
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
Swing −23.9 for SteelersExpected points −8.45 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:46SEA +24% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
2nd · 3:41SEA +20% win prob(3:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 51-N.Herbig (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. 51-N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (40-R.Ouzts; 88-A.Barner).
3rd · 4:17SEA +16% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at SEA -7. Touchback.
3rd · 6:05PIT +16% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren to SEA 5 for 65 yards (27-T.Woolen).
1st · 4:41SEA +12% win prob(4:41) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at SEA 46. 5-J.Ramsey to SEA 44 for 2 yards (40-R.Ouzts).
1st · 13:04PIT +9% win prob(13:04) 9-K.Walker right guard to PIT 33 for 13 yards (21-C.Clark).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 54-yard field goal with 12:51 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:34Tory Horton·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+77–0
1st4:51Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+37–3
1st2:18Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+37–6
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.19Steelers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.15Steelers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Steelers 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 29.4% in week 1 against 10.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.5 pts in week 1 against −1.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 8.3% in week 1 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Steelers22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 37.3 points above their season mean of 29.4% and 1.9 times their own 19.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Grey ZabelG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%65 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Full-time89%58 snaps
61Jalen SundellC · Full-time86%56 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Myers kicks−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
Q4 12:46 · Steelers · Kickoff at SEA 35 · gained nothing · -8.45 EP · −24.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.3456%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0773%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7143%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.2164%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.0577%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.5325%
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6+0.79100%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0120%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks6Steelers0
Seahawks7Steelers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Steelers 21
Seahawks7Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Seahawks 30
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Seahawks7Steelers6
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Seahawks 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Steelers 30
2nd quarter42 plays
No good7 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 17
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 14
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Steelers 29
Seahawks7Steelers12
Seahawks7Steelers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 2
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 36
Seahawks13Steelers14
Seahawks14Steelers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Steelers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Seahawks 4
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Seahawks 19
4th quarter49 plays
Seahawks17Steelers14
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Steelers 36
Seahawks23Steelers14
Seahawks24Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks24Steelers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks30Steelers17
Seahawks31Steelers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Steelers 10
Intercepted11 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended7 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
