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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q4 12:46 — 23.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 12:46, Seahawks +23.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:46
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
23.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Myers's 54-yard field goal with 12:51 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jason Myers54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+317–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categorySteelers
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Steelers 2.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 29.4% in week 1 against 10.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.5 pts in week 1 against −1.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 8.3% in week 1 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 64 snaps
Steelers1.1 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 75%
Tendencies room →Seahawks47.9%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 48 early downs
Steelers58.5%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks28.6%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers10.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.7 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks66.7%leaned — went for it · +37.3 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −32.6 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Seahawks10.3%leaned — sat back · −14.8 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.79× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Steelers51.4%leaned — sent pressure · +13.5 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Seahawks17.9%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Steelers22.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 37.3 points above their season mean of 29.4% and 1.9 times their own 19.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
22/33, 295 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.9 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
18/33, 203 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.2 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
8/10 for 103 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenneth Walker III banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 18.8 | +11.5 | 35% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 13 car, 105 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +3.7 | 65% | 89% | 33% | 42% | 8/10, 103 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.4 | +3.5 | 58% | 45% | 13% | 0% | 14 car, 48 yd · 4/4, 86 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +1.6 | 69% | 80% | 30% | 24% | 7/9, 90 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 295 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +3.6 | 40% | 51% | 13% | 32% | 2/4, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | −0.3 | 90% | 88% | 19% | 22% | 3/6, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +3.7 | 89% | 80% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −4.8 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 18/33, 203 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.9 | 56% | 57% | 13% | 1% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 6.6 | −3.9 | 42% | 50% | 16% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 3/5, 16 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −1.4 | 50% | 57% | 13% | 14% | 3/4, 31 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +0.4 | 40% | 51% | 10% | 2% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −3.7 | 92% | 85% | 13% | 43% | 1/4, 22 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.4 | 37% | 30% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.1 | 35% | 38% | 6% | 11% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 1.6 | +0.1 | 15% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 1.0 | −6.3 | 55% | 54% | 0% | — | 15 car, 10 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB | 0.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 0.1 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Robbie OuztsRB | 0.0 | — | 42% | 34% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game.
Q4 12:46 · Steelers · Kickoff at SEA 35 · gained nothing · -8.45 EP · −24.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks6
Steelers0Seahawks7Steelers0Seahawks7Steelers3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Seahawks7Steelers6How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Seahawks7Steelers12Seahawks7Steelers14Seahawks13Steelers14Seahawks14Steelers14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Seahawks17Steelers14Seahawks23Steelers14Seahawks24Steelers14Seahawks24Steelers17Seahawks30Steelers17Seahawks31Steelers17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/33 | 295 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 1 | +8.9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 15 | 10 | 0.7 | 0 | −8.7 |
| AJ Barner |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 10 | 103 | 0 | 33% | +5.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrice Knight | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy II |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/33 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −6.2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2/2 | 12 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_SEA_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 48 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.7 |
| 30% |
| +1.7 |
| Tory Horton | 2 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 13% | +1.9 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 10% | −2.3 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Coby Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Morris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Ouzts | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 13% | +5.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 13% | −3.4 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −2.3 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 19% | +2.0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −2.5 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sawyer | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yahya Black | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
