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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q3 1:44, 2nd and 4, on Alvin Kamara — 19.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:44 · 2nd and 4
Alvin Kamara
49ers
(1:44) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown, 54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at SF 32.
San Francisco 49ers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q3 1:44, 49ers +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Saints at 4 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.08 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(1:44) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Luke Farrell's 11-yard touchdown catch with 3:32 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Luke Farrell11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jones · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categorySaints
49ers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Saints’s 67 at 60%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Saints 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's play-action rate, 37.5%, sat 18.7 points above their season number of 18.8% — they faked the run by 2.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers4.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 64 snaps
Saints-9.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 89%
Tendencies room →49ers60.0%right on their number · +5.0 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 50 early downs
Saints51.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 40%
Tendencies room →49ers23.8%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints37.5%off script — faked the run · +18.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+2.69× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 106%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →49ers30.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints23.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →49ers12.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints14.3%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 18.8% and 2.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
26/39, 279 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
2.7 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected
Passing · NO
25/34, 207 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
-2.8 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mac Jones banked 6.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 22.7 | +3.7 | 77% | 86% | 18% | 9% | 13 car, 55 yd · 6/7, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/39, 279 yd, 3 TD · 6 car, 6 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | +4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 207 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 14 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.9 | +4.1 | 87% | 88% | 26% | 36% | 5/10, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.0 | −3.3 | 86% | 83% | 18% | 0% | 21 car, 99 yd · 6/6, 21 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +2.1 | 96% | 90% | 26% | 22% | 5/9, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +6.1 | 70% | 70% | 15% | 22% | 4/5, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.4 | −5.2 | 100% | 93% | 29% | 49% | 6/10, 54 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +4.6 | 58% | 44% | 8% | 0% | 2/3, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | −1.4 | 89% | 91% | 16% | 39% | 1 car, -4 yd · 4/6, 56 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +4.0 | 34% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake TongesTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +0.3 | 79% | 81% | 13% | 3% | 4/5, 31 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +1.2 | 49% | 58% | 8% | 9% | 3/3, 32 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.1 | 68% | 75% | 6% | 10% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 2.9 | −1.6 | 23% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 2.0 | −2.2 | 15% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 5 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.5 | −0.1 | 14% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:44) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown, 54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at SF 32.
Q3 1:44 · Saints · 2nd & 4 at SF 30 · lost 2 · -5.69 EP · −18.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 84 yards from the NO 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
49ers6
Saints049ers9Saints049ers9Saints649ers9Saints749ers15Saints749ers16Saints7How the play was built
A man in motion.
49ers16Saints1349ers16Saints1449ers19Saints14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers25Saints1449ers26Saints1449ers26Saints2049ers26Saints21How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/39 | 279 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 26% | +1.5 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 16% | +4.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 25/34 | 207 | 3 | 0 | 3 | −2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_SF_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 47 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 18% | +5.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Jake Tonges | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Brayden Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Upton Stout | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marques Sigle | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykel Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 99 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Kendre Miller | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 29% | −1.7 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 15% | +3.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 9 | 49 | 1 | 26% | +1.8 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +2.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 18% | −6.4 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Rumph II | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
