2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

San Francisco 49ersWinner

New Orleans Saints

SF -3 ✓O 40.5 ✓Dome49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

San Francisco 49ers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q3 1:44, SF +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:44SF 19 — NO 14NO ball · 2nd & 4SF 62%

(1:44) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:44SF +19% win prob(1:44) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (27-J.Brown, 54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at SF 32.
Q4 · 1:03SF +13% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 34 for -8 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-51-C.Ruiz at NO 27.
Q2 · 1:20NO +11% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 13:13SF +10% win prob(13:13) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:32SF Touchdown
(3:32) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 6 — NO 0
Q2 · 11:27SF Field goal
(11:27) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 9 — NO 0
Q2 · 1:20NO Touchdown
(1:20) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 9 — NO 7
Q2 · 0:11SF Touchdown
(:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 16 — NO 7
Q3 · 7:15NO Touchdown
(7:15) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 16 — NO 14
Q3 · 3:24SF Field goal
(3:24) 18-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 19 — NO 14
Q4 · 12:26SF Touchdown
(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 26 — NO 14
Q4 · 6:21NO Touchdown
(6:21) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 26 — NO 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Saints
Offensive plays	64	67
Total yards	347 (edge)	307
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	48% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	66%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Mac JonesQB

26/39, 279 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

25/34, 207 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

21 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

5/10 for 89 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

4/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 35	7	48	1:51	Missed field goal
2	SF	SF 30	4	0	0:25	Punt
3	NO	NO 40	6	19	1:23	Punt
4	SF	SF 20	15	65	7:56	Touchdown +6
5	NO	NO 32	5	4	2:00	Punt
6	SF	SF 35	9	39	5:02	Field goal +3
7	NO	NO 29	5	1	2:14	Punt
8	SF	SF 19	5	11	2:21	Punt
9	NO	NO 16	13	84	5:34	Touchdown +7
10	SF	SF 23	11	77	1:07	Touchdown +7
11	NO	NO 35	2	-1	0:07	End of half
12	SF	SF 40	7	7	2:41	Fumble
13	NO	SF 47	11	47	5:08	Touchdown +7
14	SF	SF 23	9	49	3:51	Field goal +3
15	NO	NO 35	5	18	1:42	Fumble
16	SF	SF 32	8	78	4:20	Touchdown +7
17	NO	NO 29	15	61	6:00	Touchdown +7
18	SF	SF 35	6	17	1:43	Punt
19	NO	NO 11	4	-1	1:33	Punt
20	SF	NO 49	4	4	0:22	Punt
21	NO	NO 6	8	27	1:43	Turnover on downs
22	SF	NO 27	3	0	0:57	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 84 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	26/39	279	3	0	3	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	13	55	4.2	0.9
Brian Robinson	6	20	3.3	-0.2
Mac Jones	6	6	1.0	-3.0
Ricky Pearsall	1	-4	-4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	5	10	89	1	26%	1.5
Ricky Pearsall	4	6	56	0	16%	4.9
Christian McCaffrey	6	7	52	1	18%	5.9
Kendrick Bourne	3	3	32	0	8%	2.1
Jake Tonges	4	5	31	0	13%	-1.0
Luke Farrell	2	3	15	1	8%	1.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	5	0	3%	0.2
Brayden Willis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Brian Robinson	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	6	4	0.0	1
Nick Bosa	3	6	1.0	0
Dee Winters	6	2	0.0	0
Renardo Green	5	0	0.0	1
Upton Stout	4	1	1.0	0
Mykel Williams	4	1	0.0	0
Marques Sigle	2	3	0.0	0
Bryce Huff	3	1	1.0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	1	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	3	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Spencer Rattler	25/34	207	3	0	3	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	21	99	4.7	0.4
Spencer Rattler	4	14	3.5	3.7
Kendre Miller	5	8	1.6	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	6	10	54	0	29%	-1.7
Rashid Shaheed	4	5	52	1	15%	3.1
Juwan Johnson	5	9	49	1	26%	1.8
Brandin Cooks	2	2	26	0	6%	2.7
Alvin Kamara	6	6	21	0	18%	-6.4
Devaughn Vele	1	1	3	1	3%	0.9
Kendre Miller	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	5	6	0.0	0
Jonas Sanker	5	3	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	4	2	2.0	0
Alontae Taylor	3	3	0.0	2
Isaac Yiadom	5	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	5	0	0.0	1
Pete Werner	5	0	0.0	2
Chris Rumph II	2	0	1.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	0	0.0	0
Quincy Riley	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 40.5
SF moneyline: -166
NO moneyline: +140

49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 47 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SF 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kellen Moore