2025 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 15, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -2.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:09, HOU +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:09TB 20 — HOU 19TB ball · 2nd & 2HOU 50%

(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:09HOU +32% win prob(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:06TB +27% win prob4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (57-J.Bullock).
Q4 · 6:23TB +20% win prob(6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).
Q4 · 11:19TB +17% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:58HOU Touchdown
(11:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — HOU 7
Q1 · 7:17TB Touchdown
(7:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Miller for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — HOU 7
Q1 · 3:29HOU Field goal
(3:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TB 7 — HOU 10
Q2 · 9:48TB Touchdown
(9:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — HOU 10
Q4 · 5:27HOU Field goal
(5:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TB 14 — HOU 13
Q4 · 2:16HOU Touchdown
(2:16) 21-N.Chubb right guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 14 — HOU 19
Q4 · 0:09TB Touchdown
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 20 — HOU 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Texans
Offensive plays	73	46
Total yards	360 (edge)	266
Yards per play	4.9	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	52% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	63%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

25/38, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

13/24, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

17 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

10 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

5/11 for 56 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

3/9 for 52 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · -4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 36	8	64	3:07	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 35	11	75	4:41	Touchdown +7
3	HOU	HOU 34	8	54	3:47	Field goal +3
4	TB	TB 23	16	72	8:44	Touchdown +7
5	HOU	HOU 22	7	20	2:09	Punt
6	TB	TB 13	7	13	4:49	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 30	6	22	2:13	Punt
8	TB	TB 20	4	9	0:28	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 29	1	0	0:02	End of half
10	TB	TB 28	8	15	3:37	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 20	6	19	3:22	Punt
12	TB	TB 8	6	13	2:21	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 33	4	-5	1:35	Punt
14	TB	TB 21	9	60	3:04	Missed field goal
15	HOU	HOU 28	10	66	4:46	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 1	8	29	4:59	Punt
17	HOU	TB 35	4	0	0:54	Field goal +3
18	TB	TB 35	5	-6	2:22	Punt
19	HOU	TB 26	3	26	0:50	Touchdown +6
20	TB	TB 20	13	80	2:04	Touchdown +6
21	HOU	—	1	0	0:06	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/38	215	2	0	4	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bucky Irving	17	71	4.2	0	-0.0
Rachaad White	10	65	6.5	1	5.2
Baker Mayfield	3	33	11.0	0	5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	5	11	56	0	31%	-0.1
Bucky Irving	6	6	50	0	17%	2.3
Sterling Shepard	4	4	34	0	11%	2.5
Emeka Egbuka	4	7	29	1	19%	1.9
Cade Otton	3	4	25	0	11%	1.1
Ryan Miller	1	1	20	1	3%	2.8
Rachaad White	2	2	1	0	6%	-1.2
Payne Durham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tykee Smith	4	2	1.0	0
Zyon McCollum	4	1	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.	4	0	0.0	0
Kaevon Merriweather	2	1	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	3	0	0.0	0
Lavonte David	1	1	0.5	1
Yaya Diaby	1	1	0.0	0
SirVocea Dennis	2	0	0.0	0
Deion Jones	2	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	13/24	207	1	0	3	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	12	43	3.6	1	-0.2
C.J. Stroud	4	27	6.8	0	1.9
Woody Marks	3	14	4.7	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	3	9	52	1	39%	-4.0
Woody Marks	1	1	37	0	4%	2.8
Nick Chubb	2	2	29	0	9%	1.9
Xavier Hutchinson	2	3	29	0	13%	2.2
Dalton Schultz	3	4	29	0	17%	1.2
Jayden Higgins	1	1	28	0	4%	1.6
Justin Watson	1	2	3	0	9%	-1.5
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Henry To'oTo'o	7	4	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	8	2	0.0	1
Jalen Pitre	4	1	0.0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	5	0	0.0	0
Kamari Lassiter	4	1	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	3	2	2.0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	3	1	1.0	0
Foley Fatukasi	3	0	0.0	0
Calen Bullock	3	0	0.0	0
Derek Stingley Jr.	3	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
TB moneyline: +114
HOU moneyline: -135

Texans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 39 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TB 8 days · HOU 8 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs DeMeco Ryans