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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Houston Texans 19. Final.
Texans -2.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Texans 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:09, 2nd and 2, on Rachaad White — 31.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:09 · 2nd and 2
Rachaad White
Buccaneers
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:09, Buccaneers +31.6% win probability on one snap.
31.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ4 6:23(6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).
19.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ4 0:064-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (57-J.Bullock).
26.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.03 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Buccaneers158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.6 for TexansExpected points −2.56 for TexansThe model had Texans 8 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:09HOU +32% win prob(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:06TB +27% win prob4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (57-J.Bullock).
4th · 6:23TB +20% win prob(6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).
4th · 11:19TB +17% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.
4th · 4:00TB +15% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 29 for -8 yards (51-W.Anderson).
4th · 0:52HOU +15% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 7-B.Irving to HOU 23 for 22 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair) [95-D.Barnett].
4th · 2:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rachaad White's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:09 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th5:27Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+314–13
4th2:16Nick Chubb·25-yd TD run25-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+614–19
4th0:09Rachaad White·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+620–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryTexans
Buccaneers6–2Texans
360Total yards266
4.9Yards per play5.8
52%Success rate39%
43%Third-down rate22%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays7
22First downs11
4Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Buccaneers: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 46 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Texans 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 1.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans15.2%
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 17.1% and 1.5 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.White right+36% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:09 · Buccaneers · 2nd & goal at HOU 2 · gained 2 · +2.56 EP · +36.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
46%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.1268%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0781%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0931%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1915%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Buccaneers0Texans6
Buccaneers0Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers6Texans7
Buccaneers7Texans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Texans 20
Buccaneers7Texans10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 44
2nd quarter42 plays
Buccaneers13Texans10
Buccaneers14Texans10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 15
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 42
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 48
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 21
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 36
No good9 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Texans 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 40
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 1 to the Buccaneers 48
Buccaneers14Texans13
Field goal4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers14Texans19
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers20Texans19
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Texans 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
