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2025 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 11, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Washington Commanders

18

Green Bay PackersWinner

27

GB -3.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 27–18. Biggest swing: Q1 6:46, GB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑WAS ↓
Q1 · 6:46WAS 0 — GB 0GB ball · 2nd & 6GB 58%

(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 6:46GB +12% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).
  2. Q1 · 10:30WAS +9% win prob(10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).
  3. Q1 · 11:17WAS +7% win prob(11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. GB-11-J.Reed was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 5:10GB +6% win prob(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to WAS 5 for 14 yards (95-J.Newton). GB-85-T.Kraft was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:35GB Touchdown

    (4:35) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — GB 7
  2. Q2 · 7:38GB Touchdown

    (7:38) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — GB 14
  3. Q2 · 4:32WAS Field goal

    (4:32) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — GB 14
  4. Q3 · 6:40GB Field goal

    (6:40) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — GB 17
  5. Q4 · 13:55WAS Touchdown

    (13:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — GB 17
  6. Q4 · 9:01GB Touchdown

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — GB 24
  7. Q4 · 6:47GB Field goal

    (6:47) 17-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — GB 27
  8. Q4 · 2:58WAS Touchdown

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-L.Van Ness]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 18 — GB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersPackers
Offensive plays6461
Total yards230406 (edge)
Yards per play3.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.180.16 (edge)
Success rate36%51% (edge)
Dropback rate80%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.210.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.03 (edge)
Third downs5/165/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)16 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1320 (edge)
Sacks taken42 (edge)
Turnovers00

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

19/31, 292 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

24/42, 200 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-9.2 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

23 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

7 att, 17 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Tucker KraftTE

6/7 for 124 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Zach ErtzTE

6/8 for 64 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 2810494:35Turnover on downs
2WASWAS 33462:17Punt
3GBGB 48963:35Touchdown +7
4WASWAS 35552:33Punt
5GBGB 24462:11Punt
6WASWAS 457122:25Punt
7GBGB 811924:50Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 3010373:07Field goal +3
9GBGB 27592:25Punt
10WASWAS 436221:48Missed field goal
11GBGB 483220:14Missed field goal
12WASGB 448103:06Missed field goal
13GBGB 4210695:17Field goal +3
14WASWAS 27571:33Punt
15GBGB 9421:33Punt
16WAS5012454:46Touchdown +7
17GBGB 3511604:48Touchdown +7
18WASWAS 35561:15Turnover on downs
19GBWAS 40421:00Field goal +3
20WASWAS 3511673:49Touchdown +8
21GBGB 485-11:06Punt
22WASWAS 206130:55Turnover on downs
23GBWAS 33200:52End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels24/42200204-9.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels7172.40-2.2
Austin Ekeler8172.10-0.9
Jacory Croskey-Merritt4174.300.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zach Ertz6864120%4.7
Terry McLaurin5948023%-0.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.7844120%1.5
Luke McCaffrey111903%2.3
Noah Brown149010%-2.1
Austin Ekeler247010%-2.4
Ben Sinnott11703%0.3
Jaylin Lane142010%-4.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner380.000
Quan Martin430.000
Mike Sainristil510.000
Marshon Lattimore510.001
Dorance Armstrong421.000
Will Harris320.000
Jeremy Reaves220.000
Jacob Martin210.500
Javontae Jean-Baptiste110.000
Jonathan Jones110.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love19/312922026.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs23843.71-2.0
Savion Williams22412.001.8
Matthew Golden2157.501.1
Jordan Love3124.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tucker Kraft67124126%10.7
Dontayvion Wicks4644022%2.5
Malik Heath113704%2.2
Luke Musgrave223207%2.4
Romeo Doubs3528119%1.2
Chris Brooks3427015%-1.5
Matthew Golden02007%-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper730.500
Quay Walker440.000
Evan Williams230.000
Javon Bullard500.000
Karl Brooks030.500
Rashan Gary211.000
Lukas Van Ness300.000
Xavier McKinney300.001
Devonte Wyatt201.002
Keisean Nixon200.005

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3.5
Closing total
48.5
WAS moneyline
+154
GB moneyline
-185

Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
65°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
WAS 4 days · GB 4 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Matt LaFleur