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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 18 at Green Bay Packers 27. Final.
Packers -3.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Green Bay Packers 27, Commanders 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 6:46, 2nd and 6, on Tucker Kraft — 12.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:46 · 2nd and 6
Tucker Kraft
Packers
(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Green Bay Packers 27–18. Biggest swing: Q1 6:46, Packers +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.ReedCommandersQ1 11:17(11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. GB-11-J.Reed was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
7.3pts
Jordan LoveCommandersQ1 10:30(10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).
8.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Commanders at 1 chunk play.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Commanders171 of 179 plays carry both curves
(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Swing +12.2 for PackersExpected points +4.19 for PackersThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:46GB +12% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).
1st · 10:30WAS +9% win prob(10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).
1st · 11:17WAS +7% win prob(11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. GB-11-J.Reed was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
1st · 5:10GB +6% win prob(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to WAS 5 for 14 yards (95-J.Newton). GB-85-T.Kraft was injured during the play.
1st · 11:09GB +6% win prob(11:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 30-C.Brooks to WAS 33 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves; 54-B.Wagner).
2nd · 0:04WAS +6% win prob(:04) 17-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Romeo Doubs's 5-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:35Romeo Doubs·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–7
Packers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Commanders: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Commanders: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.26Packers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 65 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Packers’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Packers19.2%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.8%, 25.9 points above their season mean of 51.8% and 2.4 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q1 6:46 · Packers · 2nd & 6 at GB 23 · gained 57 · +4.19 EP · +12.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 96 yards from the GB 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.2669%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0456%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2052%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1783%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Commanders 33
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders0Packers6
Commanders0Packers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Commanders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 30
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Packers 43
Commanders0Packers13
Commanders0Packers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Commanders 2
Commanders3Packers14
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Packers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 35
No good7 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Packers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Commanders 30
3rd quarter39 plays
No good8 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Packers 24
Commanders3Packers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 11
The period ended10 plays, from midfield to the Packers 32
4th quarter57 plays
Commanders9Packers17
Commanders10Packers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 20
Commanders10Packers23
Commanders10Packers24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Commanders 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 41
Commanders10Packers27
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 38
Commanders16Packers27
Commanders18Packers27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Packers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 48 to midfield
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3.5
Closing total
48.5
Commanders moneyline
+154
Packers moneyline
-185
Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Commanders 4 days · Packers 4 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Matt LaFleur
3rd · 12:14WAS +6% win prob(12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at GB 34 for -10 yards (sack split by 56-E.Cooper and 1-M.Parsons). Penalty on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 13:55GB +5% win prob(13:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
