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Arizona Cardinals 15 at San Francisco 49ers 16. Final.
49ers -1.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
San Francisco 49ers 16, Cardinals 15 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 11, on Eddy Pineiro — 46.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 11
Eddy Pineiro
49ers
(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
49ers closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, 49ers +46.2% win probability on one snap.
46.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonCardinalsQ4 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson at ARI 21. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 39 for 18 yards (71-T.Williams).
23.6pts
Mac JonesCardinalsQ4 3:26(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
23.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Swing +46.2 for 49ersExpected points +0.26 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 4 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04SF +46% win prob(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
4th · 5:19ARI +24% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson at ARI 21. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 39 for 18 yards (71-T.Williams).
4th · 3:26ARI +24% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
4th · 12:06SF +17% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (13-K.Clark).
4th · 1:54ARI +16% win prob(1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
3rd · 0:20ARI +16% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (2-Ma.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 35-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd8:48Chad Ryland·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–0
2nd4:26Eddy Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+33–3
2nd0:20Eddy Pineiro·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+33–6
3rd6:40Chad Ryland·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+36–6
4th10:54Kyle Juszczyk·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+76–13
4th3:26Cardinals·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+215–13
4th0:04Eddy Pineiro·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+315–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals2–549ers
260Total yards356
4.1Yards per play5.9
39%Success rate52%
33%Third-down rate20%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays6
15First downs18
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.0649ers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.0449ers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Cardinals: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.2649ers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, 49ers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers10.0%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 19.5%, 8.1 points above their season mean of 11.4% and 1.6 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Evan BrownG · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%66 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsOL · Every snap100%66 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time88%58 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Full-time80%53 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
33Trey BensonRB · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
87Tip ReimanTE · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
17Zay JonesWR · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Situational24%16 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Situational15%10 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Situational14%9 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational11%7 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Will JohnsonCBWill HernandezGXavier ThomasOLBBam KnightRBParis Johnson Jr.TXavier WeaverWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Eddy Pineiro+43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:04 · 49ers · 3rd & 11 at ARI 17 · gained nothing · +0.26 EP · +42.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 77 yards from the ARI 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
47%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0878%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0987%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1245%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.0855%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1344%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.270%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
No good14 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the 49ers 39
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Cardinals 45
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the 49ers 26
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Cardinals349ers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the 49ers 16
Cardinals349ers3
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Cardinals 19
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals349ers6
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Cardinals 33
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cardinals649ers6
Field goal17 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the 49ers 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw9.8 seconds
Punt3 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cardinals649ers12
Cardinals649ers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 1
Cardinals1249ers13
Cardinals1349ers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the 49ers 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Cardinals 36
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 44
Cardinals1549ers13
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to midfield
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Cardinals1549ers16
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Cardinals 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -1.5
Closing total
44.5
Cardinals moneyline
+105
49ers moneyline
-125
49ers closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 14:22
ARI +14% win prob
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left [98-M.Williams]. PENALTY on ARI-1-K.Murray, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 11.
4th · 9:29SF +14% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on SF-0-R.Green, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at SF 34 - No Play.
