2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -1.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓49ers closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, SF +46% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04ARI 15 — SF 16SF ball · 3rd & 11SF 54%

(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04SF +46% win prob(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Q4 · 5:19ARI +24% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson at ARI 21. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 39 for 18 yards (71-T.Williams).
Q4 · 3:26ARI +24% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Q4 · 12:06SF +17% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (13-K.Clark).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 8:48ARI Field goal
(8:48) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SF 0
Q2 · 4:26SF Field goal
(4:26) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SF 3
Q2 · 0:20SF Field goal
(:20) 18-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SF 6
Q3 · 6:40ARI Field goal
(6:40) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 6
Q4 · 10:54SF Touchdown
(10:54) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [5-B.Browning]. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 13
Q4 · 8:42ARI Touchdown
(8:42) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 13
Q4 · 3:26ARI Safety
(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Score after this play: ARI 15 — SF 13
Q4 · 0:04SF Field goal
(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ARI 15 — SF 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	64	60
Total yards	260	356 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	39%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Mac JonesQB

27/41, 284 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/35, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Trey BensonRB

10 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

8/11 for 117 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

10/15 for 88 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 39	11	32	6:46	Missed field goal
2	SF	SF 47	4	6	1:22	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 8	12	32	6:01	Punt
4	SF	SF 23	4	1	0:57	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 35	12	49	6:09	Field goal +3
6	SF	SF 32	10	49	4:23	Field goal +3
7	ARI	ARI 28	5	9	2:14	Punt
8	SF	SF 14	11	63	1:51	Field goal +3
9	ARI	ARI 37	2	-5	0:17	End of half
10	SF	SF 35	7	21	1:48	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 14	15	82	6:35	Field goal +3
12	SF	SF 36	12	73	6:22	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 2	4	9	1:16	Punt
14	SF	ARI 48	7	48	3:09	Touchdown +7
15	ARI	ARI 35	6	32	2:13	Touchdown +7
16	SF	SF 28	7	36	3:29	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 39	4	5	1:39	Punt
18	SF	SF 6	1	0	0:14	Safety
19	ARI	ARI 35	7	15	1:29	Punt
20	SF	SF 20	10	59	1:46	Field goal +3

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	22/35	159	1	0	1	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trey Benson	10	42	4.2	-0.5
Kyler Murray	6	37	6.2	2.6
James Conner	9	22	2.4	0.3
Greg Dortch	1	5	5.0	0.0
Emari Demercado	2	0	0.0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Harrison Jr.	3	6	44	0	18%	1.9
Trey McBride	5	8	43	1	24%	0.7
Zay Jones	2	3	25	0	9%	1.9
James Conner	3	4	15	0	12%	-0.1
Trey Benson	3	4	9	0	12%	-3.1
Tip Reiman	2	3	8	0	9%	-0.6
Elijah Higgins	1	1	7	0	3%	1.0
Michael Wilson	1	2	5	0	6%	2.4
Greg Dortch	2	2	3	0	6%	-1.0
Emari Demercado	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mack Wilson	6	6	0.0	0	2
Akeem Davis-Gaither	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	3	3	0.0	0	0
Kei'Trel Clark	3	2	0.0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Max Melton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	1	1	1.0	0	0
Denzel Burke	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	27/41	284	1	1	1	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	17	52	3.1	-6.0
Brian Robinson	2	22	11.0	1.1
Mac Jones	1	-1	-1.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ricky Pearsall	8	11	117	0	29%	4.0
Christian McCaffrey	10	15	88	0	39%	-2.2
Kendrick Bourne	4	6	38	0	16%	0.1
Jake Tonges	2	3	21	0	8%	0.7
Skyy Moore	1	1	10	0	3%	0.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	1	1	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	5	6	0.0	2
Dee Winters	4	4	0.0	1
Sam Okuayinonu	2	5	0.0	0
Marques Sigle	2	5	0.0	0
Bryce Huff	2	3	1.0	1
Upton Stout	3	2	0.0	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	2	2	0.0	0
Renardo Green	1	3	0.0	0
Jason Pinnock	3	0	0.0	0
Jordan Elliott	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1.5
Closing total: 44.5
ARI moneyline: +105
SF moneyline: -125

49ers closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.