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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta0
BY 30final margin
PanthersCarolina30
Atlanta Falcons 0 at Carolina Panthers 30. Final.
Falcons -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Carolina Panthers 30, Falcons 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:14, 4th and 6 — 13.8 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:14 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Falcons
(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
U 44.5 ✓
Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 30–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, Falcons +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
John Parker RomoPanthersQ1 10:54(10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
7.9pts
Chau Smith-WadePanthersQ3 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
10.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons152 of 160 plays carry both curves
(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
Swing −13.8 for PanthersExpected points −5.04 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 24 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:14CAR +14% win prob(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
3rd · 11:46ATL +10% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 10:54ATL +8% win prob(10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
1st · 1:25ATL +7% win prob(1:25) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 37 for no gain (94-L.London). PENALTY on CAR-64-C.Mays, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37 - No Play.
1st · 8:18CAR +7% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).
2nd · 13:09CAR +7% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson pushed ob at CAR 45 for 25 yards (21-N.Scott).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Bryce Young's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 6:52 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:52Bryce Young·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd5:29Ryan Fitzgerald·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+30–10
4th3:45Ryan Fitzgerald·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+30–30
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons6–3Panthers
332Total yards225
5.0Yards per play4.2
36%Success rate48%
38%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays2
18First downs14
0Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Falcons: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.50Falcons: −0.50 expected points added per play
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.01Panthers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Panthers’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 0, Panthers 3.
NoteFalcons outgained Panthers 332-225 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's blitz rate sent turned over: 23.3% in week 2 against 55.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.9% in week 2 against 62.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.4% in week 2 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 6.8% in week 2 against 29.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 2 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers4.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 55.6%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 37.7% and 1.4 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q1 8:18 · Panthers · 4th & 3 at ATL 39 · gained 23 · +4.18 EP · +10.3% win probability
150 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 61 yards from the CAR 39 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
41%
Yards
556
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.3567%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1959%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0533%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2756%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
No good11 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Panthers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Falcons0Panthers6
Falcons0Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Falcons 4
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 35
No good4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 31
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Falcons 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Panthers 43
Falcons0Panthers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Falcons 34
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 47
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 42
Falcons0Panthers16
Touchdown2 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 16
Falcons0Panthers17
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 45
Falcons0Panthers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 10
Intercepted12 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Panthers 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 23
4th quarter36 plays
Falcons0Panthers26
Falcons0Panthers27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 44
Falcons0Panthers30
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 23
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Panthers 41
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
