2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina PanthersWinner

ATL -5.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 30–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, CAR +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:14ATL 0 — CAR 7ATL ball · 4th & 6CAR 57%

(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:14CAR +14% win prob(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
Q3 · 11:46ATL +10% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 10:54ATL +8% win prob(10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q1 · 1:25ATL +7% win prob(1:25) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 37 for no gain (94-L.London). PENALTY on CAR-64-C.Mays, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:52CAR Touchdown
(6:52) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 7
Q2 · 5:29CAR Field goal
(5:29) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 10
Q3 · 11:46CAR Touchdown
(11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 17
Q3 · 4:52CAR Field goal
(4:52) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 20
Q4 · 10:51CAR Touchdown
(10:51) 73-B.Walton reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 27
Q4 · 3:45CAR Field goal
(3:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	66	54
Total yards	332 (edge)	225
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	36%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Falcons outgained Panthers 332–225 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

18/36, 172 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.8 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

16/24, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.5 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

17 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

13 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

5/8 for 55 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

3/8 for 48 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 27	11	42	4:10	Missed field goal
2	CAR	CAR 39	10	61	4:06	Touchdown +7
3	ATL	ATL 26	5	9	1:39	Punt
4	ATL	CAR 33	4	-3	1:37	Missed field goal
5	CAR	CAR 45	6	23	3:24	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 10	9	47	4:19	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 13	10	53	5:21	Field goal +3
8	ATL	ATL 20	7	24	2:48	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 31	4	4	1:35	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 21	4	47	1:01	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 29	7	13	2:36	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 14	2	2	0:45	Defensive touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 10	7	35	2:15	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	ATL 45	9	10	4:36	Field goal +3
15	ATL	ATL 20	12	49	3:31	Interception
16	CAR	ATL 30	10	30	5:29	Touchdown +7
17	ATL	ATL 10	9	34	2:46	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	ATL 44	7	31	4:21	Field goal +3
19	ATL	ATL 22	8	46	3:11	Fumble
20	CAR	CAR 29	1	0	0:30	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 61 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Michael Penix Jr.	18/36	172	0	2	0	-18.8
Kirk Cousins	5/7	29	0	0	0	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	13	72	5.5	1.0
Nate Carter	7	46	6.6	-0.7
Michael Penix Jr.	2	9	4.5	-0.7
Tyler Allgeier	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	5	8	55	20%	2.6
Darnell Mooney	4	11	44	27%	-5.9
Bijan Robinson	5	6	39	15%	-4.3
Kyle Pitts	4	6	39	15%	-1.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	5	20	12%	-9.0
David Sills	1	2	9	5%	0.3
Tyler Allgeier	1	2	0	5%	-1.3
Charlie Woerner	1	1	-5	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kaden Elliss	4	4	1.0	0
Xavier Watts	7	1	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	3	4	0.0	0
Billy Bowman Jr.	3	1	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	3	0.0	0
Dee Alford	2	1	0.0	2
Zach Harrison	2	1	0.0	0
Jalon Walker	2	1	0.0	0
LaCale London	3	0	0.0	0
Mike Hughes	1	2	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	16/24	121	0	0	1	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	17	73	4.3	0	-1.8
Rico Dowdle	10	30	3.0	1	2.2
Bryce Young	2	8	4.0	1	1.6
Andy Dalton	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	3	8	48	33%	0.1
Tommy Tremble	2	2	16	8%	0.5
Brycen Tremayne	2	2	15	8%	0.9
Ja'Tavion Sanders	2	2	11	8%	1.4
Mitchell Evans	1	1	9	4%	0.8
Rico Dowdle	1	1	8	4%	0.7
Hunter Renfrow	2	4	6	17%	-3.2
David Moore	1	1	5	4%	-0.3
Chuba Hubbard	2	3	3	13%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Christian Rozeboom	5	3	0	0
Mike Jackson	5	1	1	1
Tre'von Moehrig	4	2	0	0
Chau Smith-Wade	5	0	1	1
Trevin Wallace	3	2	0	0
Lathan Ransom	4	1	0	0
Jaycee Horn	3	0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	1	0	0
Bam Martin-Scott	1	1	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
ATL moneyline: -225
CAR moneyline: +185

Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 30 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.