For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 3
It turned at Q1 5:14, 4th and 6 — 13.8 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 30–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, Falcons +13.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:14 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Falcons
(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Bryce Young's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 6:52 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Panthers’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 0, Panthers 3.
Falcons outgained Panthers 332-225 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's blitz rate sent turned over: 23.3% in week 2 against 55.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.9% in week 2 against 62.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.4% in week 2 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 6.8% in week 2 against 29.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 2 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-3.3 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 66 snaps
Panthers-2.8 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Falcons62.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.5 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 50 early downs
Panthers41.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Falcons13.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Panthers29.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Falcons66.7%inside their normal wobble · +30.9 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers66.7%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 70%
Tendencies room →Falcons55.6%leaned — sent pressure · +17.9 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers24.4%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 30%
Tendencies room →Falcons11.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers4.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
ATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 55.6%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 37.7% and 1.4 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
18/36, 172 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-18.8 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
16/24, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.5 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
3/8 for 48 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bijan Robinson banked 1.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 16.1 | +1.4 | 80% | 89% | 15% | 0% | 13 car, 72 yd · 5/6, 39 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 11.6 | −5.4 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 16/24, 121 yd · 2 car, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | +0.1 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | −2.6 | 86% | 96% | 20% | 32% | 5/8, 55 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 9.6 | −6.5 | 62% | 63% | 13% | 10% | 17 car, 73 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −8.7 | 89% | 87% | 27% | 39% | 4/11, 44 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −0.8 | 82% | 98% | 15% | 12% | 4/6, 39 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.8 | −7.9 | 90% | 93% | 33% | 59% | 3/8, 48 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.8 | 70% | 67% | 12% | 10% | 2/5, 20 yd |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 3.8 | −9.5 | 77% | — | 0% | — | 18/36, 172 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 9 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.1 | 57% | 48% | 8% | 3% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.9 | 28% | 22% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.2 | 59% | 70% | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Nate CarterRB | 2.6 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −3.8 | 29% | 41% | 17% | 17% | 2/4, 6 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.9 | 38% | 36% | 5% | 11% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.1 | 34% | 22% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 97% | 100% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 1.4 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kirk CousinsQB | 1.2 | −0.4 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 5/7, 29 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −0.8 | 21% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, -5 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dalevon CampbellWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Andy DaltonQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q1 8:18 · Panthers · 4th & 3 at ATL 39 · gained 23 · +4.18 EP · +10.3% win probability
150 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 61 yards from the CAR 39 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons0
Panthers6Falcons0Panthers7Falcons0Panthers10Falcons0Panthers16Falcons0Panthers17Falcons0Panthers20Falcons0Panthers26Falcons0Panthers27Falcons0Panthers30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 18/36 | 172 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −18.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5/7 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Nate Carter | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 20% | +2.6 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Watts | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16/24 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_03_ATL_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 30 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| −5.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15% | −4.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15% | −1.1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −9.0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.3 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2% | −1.8 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalon Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 33% | +0.1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 17% | −3.2 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rozeboom | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevin Wallace | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Lathan Ransom | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demani Richardson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
