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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 3
It turned at Q1 6:25, 2nd and 9, on Isaiah Rodgers — 22.9 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 48–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:25, Vikings +22.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:25 · 2nd and 9
Isaiah Rodgers
Vikings
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 5 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.79 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -1.09 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Oliver's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:01 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Josh Oliver12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson WentzLead never changed again+70–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.09 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Vikings’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Vikings 5.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.79.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's play-action rate, 10.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
MIN's sack or hit rate, 32.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
CIN's pass rate over expected, −9.5 pts, sat 11.1 points below their season number of +1.6 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.0% in week 2 against 53.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals-9.5 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −11.1 vs their 1.6 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−2.13× that swing) · 52 snaps
Vikings-2.9 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 84%
Tendencies room →Bengals53.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 41 early downs
Vikings40.0%leaned — ran early · −14.6 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Bengals25.8%leaned — faked the run · +9.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings10.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.6 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.89× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.0%.
Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 77%
Tendencies room →Bengals24.1%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 21.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings48.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Bengals13.8%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings32.3%leaned — got home · +12.8 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 11.1 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
14/20, 173 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.4 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
19/27, 140 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-18.1 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
5/7 for 75 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jordan Mason banked 11.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 23.6 | +11.2 | 60% | 66% | 0% | — | 16 car, 116 yd, 2 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +2.8 | 68% | 76% | 25% | 24% | 5/6, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | −0.6 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 173 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | +0.8 | 80% | 86% | 29% | 26% | 5/7, 75 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +4.7 | 68% | 68% | 12% | 7% | 2/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | 0.0 | 86% | 87% | 23% | 24% | 1 car, 9 yd · 5/6, 50 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +6.1 | 35% | 24% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen NailorWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −2.7 | 83% | 93% | 21% | 34% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 6.0 | −7.9 | 55% | 55% | 19% | 14% | 10 car, 3 yd · 4/5, 17 yd |
| Zavier ScottRB | 6.0 | 0.0 | 28% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 8 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 20 yd |
| Jake BrowningQB · Starter QB | 5.9 | −2.1 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 140 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −0.8 | 32% | 42% | 19% | 10% | 5/5, 26 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.7 | 82% | 87% | 8% | 31% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Cam AkersRB | 1.9 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tai FeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 20% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 1.7 | −0.8 | 18% | 16% | 0% | — | 5 car, 17 yd |
| Cam GrandyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.8 | 30% | 35% | 12% | 15% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Max BrosmerQB | 1.2 | −0.3 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 29 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.1 | −2.2 | 27% | 29% | 0% | — | 4 car, 21 yd |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brett RypienQB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben YurosekTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.8 | 75% | 90% | 8% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:25 · Bengals · 2nd & 9 at MIN 29 · gained nothing · -10.65 EP · −20.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 74 yards from the MIN 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals0
Vikings6Bengals0Vikings7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals0Vikings13Bengals0Vikings14Bengals0Vikings17Bengals3Vikings17Bengals3Vikings23Bengals3Vikings24Bengals3Vikings30Bengals3Vikings31Bengals3Vikings34Bengals3Vikings40Bengals3Vikings41Bengals3Vikings47Bengals3Vikings48Bengals9Vikings48Bengals10Vikings48Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 19/27 | 140 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −18.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Tahj Brooks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 23% | −3.9 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Battle | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 14/20 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +9.4 |
| Max Brosmer | 2/4 | 29 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_03_CIN_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 38.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 58 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Chase Brown | 10 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 | −6.3 |
| −9.8 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 12% | +2.7 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −11.4 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12% | −4.7 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barrett Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sample | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 16 | 116 | 7.3 | 2 | +5.1 |
| Zavier Scott | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 29% | +4.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 25% | +6.1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 21% | +1.2 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chaz Chambliss | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
