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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati10
BY 38final margin
VikingsMinnesota48
Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Minnesota Vikings 48. Final.
Vikings -3 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Minnesota Vikings 48, Bengals 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:25, 2nd and 9, on Isaiah Rodgers — 22.9 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:25 · 2nd and 9
Isaiah Rodgers
Vikings
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 38.
Minnesota Vikings 48–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:25, Vikings +22.9% win probability on one snap.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ1 14:41(14:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to CIN 48 for 1 yard (23-D.Hill). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 48.
5.6pts
Noah FantVikingsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 86-N.Fant to MIN 32 for 4 yards (2-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (2-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 34. 2-I.Rodgers for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 5 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.79 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -1.09 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.9 for VikingsExpected points +10.65 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:25CIN +23% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00CIN +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 86-N.Fant to MIN 32 for 4 yards (2-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (2-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 34. 2-I.Rodgers for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:41MIN +6% win prob(14:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to CIN 48 for 1 yard (23-D.Hill). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 48.
1st · 13:01MIN +5% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:45CIN +4% win prob(9:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 17 for -10 yards (sack split by 90-K.Jenkins and 99-M.Murphy).
1st · 12:53CIN +3% win prob(12:53) 30-C.Brown right end to CIN 28 for -1 yards (58-J.Greenard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Oliver's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:01 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.09 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.79Bengals: −0.79 expected points added per play
+0.12Vikings: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−1.09Bengals: −1.09 expected points added per play
+0.12Vikings: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Bengals: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.12Vikings: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Vikings’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.79.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's play-action rate, 10.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 2.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 32.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected, −9.5 pts, sat 11.1 points below their season number of +1.6 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 2.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.0% in week 2 against 53.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings32.3%
leaned — got home · +12.8 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 11.1 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Browning pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:25 · Bengals · 2nd & 9 at MIN 29 · gained nothing · -10.65 EP · −20.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 74 yards from the MIN 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
40%
Yards
523
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1055%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.6558%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.9960%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2021%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Bengals0Vikings6
Bengals0Vikings7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Bengals 12
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Bengals0Vikings13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Vikings 29
Bengals0Vikings14
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 17
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays
Bengals0Vikings17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 17
Bengals3Vikings17
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 27
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 26
Bengals3Vikings23
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 36
Bengals3Vikings24
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 32
Bengals3Vikings30
Bengals3Vikings31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Bengals 5
Fumble lost2 plays
Bengals3Vikings34
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Bengals 44
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 27
Bengals3Vikings40
Bengals3Vikings41
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Bengals 4
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Vikings 46
Bengals3Vikings47
Bengals3Vikings48
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Bengals 5
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Bengals9Vikings48
Bengals10Vikings48
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 38
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 27
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Bengals 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
