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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Soldier Field

Dallas Cowboys

14

Chicago BearsWinner

31

DAL -1.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:21, CHI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑DAL ↓
Q1 · 4:21DAL 3 — CHI 13CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 55%

(4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:21CHI +15% win prob(4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 6:27CHI +13% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (54-S.Williams).
  3. Q1 · 10:40CHI +13% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 0:43CHI +12% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to DAL 10 for 29 yards (6-D.Wilson; 20-K.Elam).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:40CHI Touchdown

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — CHI 7
  2. Q1 · 4:26DAL Field goal

    (4:26) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — CHI 7
  3. Q1 · 4:21CHI Touchdown

    (4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — CHI 14
  4. Q2 · 13:53DAL Field goal

    (13:53) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 6 — CHI 14
  5. Q2 · 8:01DAL Touchdown

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — CHI 14
  6. Q2 · 4:19CHI Field goal

    (4:19) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — CHI 17
  7. Q2 · 0:30CHI Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — CHI 24
  8. Q3 · 0:14CHI Touchdown

    (:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — CHI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysBears
Offensive plays6855
Total yards398 (edge)387
Yards per play5.97.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.040.30 (edge)
Success rate49%49% (edge)
Dropback rate71%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.60 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.03
Third downs3/118/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)18
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Cowboys outgained Bears 398–387 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

19/28, 298 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

31/40, 251 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.9 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Javonte WilliamsRB

10 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Miles SandersRB

9 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Luther Burden IIIWR

3/3 for 101 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Jake FergusonTE

13/14 for 82 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 195-21:47Punt
2DALDAL 432290:42Fumble
3CHICHI 246711:56Touchdown +7
4DALDAL 2012466:14Field goal +3
5CHICHI 353650:11Touchdown +7
6DALDAL 3511555:21Field goal +3
7CHICHI 355111:40Punt
8DALDAL 438544:12Touchdown +8
9CHICHI 359593:42Field goal +3
10DALDAL 24561:50Punt
11CHICHI 298712:00Touchdown +7
12DALDAL 222120:25End of half
13DALDAL 289184:57Punt
14CHICHI 2420769:54Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 345351:37Interception
16CHICHI 278294:34Punt
17DALDAL 815854:11Interception
18CHICHI 20470:26Punt
19DALDAL 329583:29Interception
20CHICHI 20200:52End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott31/40251122-1.9
Joe Milton III3/541010-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams10767.60-0.2
Miles Sanders9414.600.3
KaVontae Turpin144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jake Ferguson131482032%-0.0
George Pickens5968120%0.1
KaVontae Turpin236407%0.7
Jalen Tolbert3624014%-0.6
Ryan Flournoy232107%2.8
Javonte Williams5516011%-0.2
Miles Sanders331207%-1.0
Luke Schoonmaker11502%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Donovan Wilson440.001
Jack Sanborn340.000
Kenneth Murray, Jr.330.000
Reddy Steward320.000
Trikweze Bridges310.000
Osa Odighizuwa120.000
Malik Hooker300.000
Marshawn Kneeland210.000
Juanyeh Thomas300.000
James Houston110.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams19/2829840018.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift13332.50-0.1
Kyle Monangai6162.70-1.8
Caleb Williams5122.40-0.1
Olamide Zaccheaus11212.000.6
Luther Burden III177.001.3
DJ Moore372.30-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Luther Burden III33101111%5.3
Rome Odunze3762125%2.6
D'Andre Swift3445014%1.5
Colston Loveland1331011%0.6
Olamide Zaccheaus3424014%0.6
DJ Moore4521118%4.6
Cole Kmet111014%3.3
Kyle Monangai11404%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds390.022
Noah Sewell650.000
Kevin Byard520.011
Nahshon Wright430.000
Nick McCloud500.000
Dominique Robinson311.000
Dayo Odeyingbo130.000
Daniel Hardy210.000
Tyrique Stevenson210.002
Jaquan Brisker210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Closing total
49.5
DAL moneyline
-125
CHI moneyline
+105

Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 45 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
82°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
DAL 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Ben Johnson