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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Cowboys159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.0 for BearsExpected points +4.73 for BearsThe model had Bears 12 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:21CHI +15% win prob(4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:27CHI +13% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (54-S.Williams).
1st · 10:40CHI +13% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:43CHI +12% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to DAL 10 for 29 yards (6-D.Wilson; 20-K.Elam).
1st · 12:40DAL +8% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end to CHI 28 for 22 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), RECOVERED by CHI-29-T.Stevenson at CHI 28. 29-T.Stevenson pushed ob at CHI 24 for -4 yards (33-J.Williams).
2nd · 10:18CHI +8% win prob(10:18) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to CHI 21 for 21 yards (26-N.Wright).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 30-yard field goal with 4:19 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.30Bears: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.60Bears: +0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Cowboys: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bears’s 55 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Bears 5.
NoteCowboys outgained Bears 398-387 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.2% in week 2 against 42.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 11 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bears14.6%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 16.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q2 6:27 · Bears · 3rd & 9 at CHI 36 · gained 41 · +3.54 EP · +14.0% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 91 yards from the DAL 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0881%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2858%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4344%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1344%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cowboys0Bears6
Cowboys0Bears7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Cowboys 35
Cowboys3Bears7
Field goal14 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Bears 34
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Cowboys3Bears13
Cowboys3Bears14
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Bears 17
2nd quarter47 plays
Cowboys6Bears14
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 10
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 36
Cowboys12Bears14
Cowboys14Bears14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Bears 2
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cowboys14Bears17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Cowboys 11
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys14Bears23
Cowboys14Bears24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Cowboys 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Bears 45
Cowboys14Bears30
Cowboys14Bears31
Touchdown20 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 31
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Cowboys 44
Intercepted16 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Bears 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 27
Intercepted10 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Bears 15
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
