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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 23. Final.
Chargers -2.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Broncos 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:46, 4th and 2, on Courtland Sutton — 19.1 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:46 · 4th and 2
Courtland Sutton
Broncos
(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Los Angeles Chargers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, Broncos +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ3 13:403-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 28 for 27 yards (52-J.Elliss). FUMBLES (52-J.Elliss), RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at LAC 30. ** Injury Update: LAC-12-D.Davis has returned to the game.
14.3pts
Keenan AllenChargersQ4 2:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
15.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 13 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.1 for ChargersExpected points −6.64 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:46LAC +19% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:44LAC +15% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
3rd · 13:40DEN +14% win prob3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 28 for 27 yards (52-J.Elliss). FUMBLES (52-J.Elliss), RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at LAC 30. ** Injury Update: LAC-12-D.Davis has returned to the game.
4th · 2:00DEN +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.
4th · 3:49LAC +13% win prob(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to DEN 24 for 22 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian), ball out of bounds at DEN 24.
4th · 14:21LAC +12% win prob(14:21) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 10 for 22 yards (32-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Face Mask, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 43-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:57Cameron Dicker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+30–3
4th0:05Cameron Dicker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos3–5Chargers
266Total yards376
5.7Yards per play4.7
28%Success rate40%
15%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
8First downs23
2Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Broncos: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Broncos: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 47 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Chargers’s 80 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 16.1 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +3.9 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Chargers15.6%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 25.5% and 1.7 times their own 15.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
Q4 2:44 · Chargers · 2nd & 6 at DEN 20 · gained 20 · +3.05 EP · +19.1% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 76 yards from the LAC 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
37%
Yards
641
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2961%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0073%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR14+0.0986%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1938%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0833%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.57100%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Broncos0Chargers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Broncos 13
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 40
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 43
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 21
2nd quarter46 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Broncos 27
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 46
Broncos0Chargers9
Broncos0Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Broncos 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Offense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZonePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Broncos6Chargers10
Broncos7Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos13Chargers10
Broncos14Chargers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Chargers 19
Fumble lost1 play
Broncos17Chargers10
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 24
Broncos17Chargers13
Field goal18 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 35
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Chargers 37
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Offense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Broncos20Chargers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 4
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Broncos 35
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 29
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Broncos20Chargers19
Broncos20Chargers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Broncos 20
Punt5 plays
Broncos20Chargers23
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Broncos 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
