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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos

20

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

23

LAC -2.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, LAC +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑DEN ↓
Q2 · 0:46DEN 6 — LAC 10DEN ball · 4th & 2LAC 83%

(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:46LAC +19% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:44LAC +15% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
  3. Q3 · 13:40DEN +14% win prob3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 28 for 27 yards (52-J.Elliss). FUMBLES (52-J.Elliss), RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at LAC 30. ** Injury Update: LAC-12-D.Davis has returned to the game.
  4. Q4 · 2:00DEN +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:57LAC Field goal

    (11:57) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LAC 3
  2. Q2 · 1:56LAC Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 0:46DEN Touchdown

    (:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LAC 10
  4. Q3 · 13:49DEN Touchdown

    (13:49) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LAC 10
  5. Q3 · 12:06DEN Field goal

    (12:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: DEN 17 — LAC 10
  6. Q3 · 5:38LAC Field goal

    (5:38) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: DEN 17 — LAC 13
  7. Q4 · 12:24DEN Field goal

    (12:24) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: DEN 20 — LAC 13
  8. Q4 · 2:44LAC Touchdown

    (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 20 — LAC 20
  9. Q4 · 0:05LAC Field goal

    (:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: DEN 20 — LAC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosChargers
Offensive plays4780
Total yards266376 (edge)
Yards per play5.7 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play-0.05-0.04 (edge)
Success rate28%40% (edge)
Dropback rate68%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.05-0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04-0.03 (edge)
Third downs2/138/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps823 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)5
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

28/47, 300 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

14/25, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.5 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

11 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Omarion HamptonRB

19 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/8 for 118 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 12.2 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

6/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 319383:06Field goal +3
2DENDEN 33571:38Punt
3LACLAC 218233:21Punt
4DENDEN 39492:07Punt
5LACLAC 184-82:13Punt
6DENLAC 464-20:55Punt
7LACLAC 1212616:17Interception
8DENDEN 98284:33Punt
9LACLAC 4610543:57Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 289721:15Touchdown +7
11LACLAC 255110:34Punt
12DENDEN 20100:04End of half
13DENDEN 345661:20Touchdown +7
14LAC—100:08Fumble
15DENLAC 30461:30Field goal +3
16LACLAC 2515516:27Field goal +3
17DENDEN 34511:57Punt
18LACLAC 14451:27Punt
19DENDEN 4110564:50Field goal +3
20LACLAC 2211374:36Punt
21DENDEN 204232:37Punt
22LACLAC 248612:31Touchdown +7
23DENDEN 22500:54Punt
24LACLAC 328431:43Field goal +3

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 72 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix14/25153102-1.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins11837.512.1
Bo Nix8334.10-1.5
RJ Harvey221.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton68118135%12.2
RJ Harvey3314013%-2.2
Lucas Krull12909%-1.4
Troy Franklin248017%-2.5
Marvin Mims Jr.144017%-3.0
J.K. Dobbins12009%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton480.000
Brandon Jones650.011
Talanoa Hufanga420.002
Riley Moss420.001
Justin Strnad050.001
Ja'Quan McMillian410.000
Eyioma Uwazurike220.000
Jonathon Cooper221.000
Nik Bonitto312.000
Dondrea Tillman220.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert28/47300115-2.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Omarion Hampton19703.71-1.3
Najee Harris6284.700.4
Justin Herbert263.000.6
Derius Davis122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quentin Johnston6989020%3.9
Keenan Allen71165124%4.3
Omarion Hampton6759016%2.1
Oronde Gadsden II5746016%0.4
Ladd McConkey4741016%1.1
Tyler Conklin02004%-1.6
Tucker Fisk01002%-0.7
Tre Harris01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James921.000
Tony Jefferson410.001
Daiyan Henley220.000
Caleb Murphy210.000
Troy Dye211.000
Jamaree Caldwell120.000
Tarheeb Still300.000
Tuli Tuipulotu110.000
Alohi Gilman200.000
Benjamin St-Juste110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Closing total
45.5
DEN moneyline
+130
LAC moneyline
-155

Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 43 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DEN 7 days · LAC 6 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Jim Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.