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2025 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 22, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

38

Baltimore Ravens

30

BAL -4.5 upsetO 53.5 ✓

Detroit Lions 38–30. Biggest swing: Q4 8:31, DET +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑DET ↓
Q4 · 8:31DET 28 — BAL 24BAL ball · 1st & 10DET 64%

(8:31) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-4-D.Reed at BAL 19. 4-D.Reed to BAL 16 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:31DET +19% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-4-D.Reed at BAL 19. 4-D.Reed to BAL 16 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson).
  2. Q3 · 2:53BAL +17% win prob(2:53) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to BAL 13 for 72 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
  3. Q4 · 15:00BAL +16% win prob(15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 8:55BAL +14% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:19DET Touchdown

    (9:19) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — BAL 0
  2. Q1 · 5:47BAL Touchdown

    (5:47) 22-D.Henry right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-P.O'Connor, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — BAL 7
  3. Q2 · 5:57DET Touchdown

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — BAL 7
  4. Q2 · 0:27BAL Touchdown

    (:27) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — BAL 14
  5. Q3 · 8:55BAL Touchdown

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — BAL 21
  6. Q3 · 5:18DET Touchdown

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — BAL 21
  7. Q4 · 15:00DET Touchdown

    (15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 28 — BAL 21
  8. Q4 · 9:44BAL Field goal

    (9:44) 33-T.Loop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: DET 28 — BAL 24
  9. Q4 · 6:39DET Field goal

    (6:39) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 31 — BAL 24
  10. Q4 · 1:50DET Touchdown

    (1:50) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 38 — BAL 24
  11. Q4 · 0:35BAL Touchdown

    (:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 38 — BAL 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsRavens
Offensive plays6555
Total yards427 (edge)318
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play0.39 (edge)0.07
Success rate58% (edge)47%
Dropback rate45%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.50 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.31 (edge)-0.40
Third downs7/146/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)19
Sacks taken0 (edge)7
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

21/27, 288 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.0 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

20/28, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.2 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

12 att, 151 yds, 2 TD

11.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

22 att, 67 yds, 2 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

6/6 for 91 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/8 for 77 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 3313675:44Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 208753:36Touchdown +7
3DETDET 32582:24Punt
4BALBAL 27471:33Punt
5DETDET 2199810:48Touchdown +7
6BALBAL 499314:31Turnover on downs
7DETDET 20400:28Punt
8BALDET 495330:32Touchdown +7
9DETDET 335190:24Missed field goal
10BALBAL 2713676:09Touchdown +7
11DETDET 409603:38Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 40501:37Punt
13DETDET 48963:41Touchdown +7
14BALBAL 2811395:15Field goal +3
15DETDET 35551:09Punt
16BALBAL 21100:05Fumble
17DETBAL 16441:51Field goal +3
18BALBAL 31512:11Punt
19DETDET 308702:42Touchdown +7
20BALBAL 358651:13Touchdown +6
21DETBAL 45200:29End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 98 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff20/2820210014.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery1215112.6211.1
Jahmyr Gibbs22673.021.2
Jared Goff461.50-2.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown7877131%8.7
Jameson Williams2343012%4.5
Sam LaPorta4433015%4.4
Jahmyr Gibbs5632023%-1.1
David Montgomery111304%0.8
Kalif Raymond12408%-1.4
Isaac TeSlaa02008%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell801.000
Derrick Barnes431.000
Brian Branch510.001
Alex Anzalone130.500
Al-Quadin Muhammad312.500
Kerby Joseph300.000
Terrion Arnold210.000
Zach Cunningham200.000
Rock Ya-Sin110.000
D.J. Reed200.001

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson21/2728830711.0
Derrick Henry0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry12504.21-5.6
Lamar Jackson7355.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews6691221%10.1
Rashod Bateman5763125%6.2
Justice Hill3445014%0.7
Devontez Walker113404%2.8
Charlie Kolar2322011%1.2
DeAndre Hopkins121307%0.5
Zay Flowers2313011%0.3
Derrick Henry11704%0.4
Tylan Wallace01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyle Hamilton540.000
John Jenkins530.000
Malaki Starks350.000
Roquan Smith610.000
Teddye Buchanan340.000
Marlon Humphrey310.000
Broderick Washington130.000
Mike Green220.000
Chidobe Awuzie210.000
T.J. Tampa300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Closing total
53.5
DET moneyline
+200
BAL moneyline
-245

Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 68 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
74°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
DET 8 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs John Harbaugh