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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 22, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 3
It turned at Q4 8:31, 1st and 10, on Derrick Henry — 18.7 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:31 · 1st and 10
Derrick Henry
Lions
(8:31) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-4-D.Reed at BAL 19. 4-D.Reed to BAL 16 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Detroit Lions 38–30. Biggest swing: Q4 8:31, Lions +18.7% win probability on one snap.
18.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Ravens at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(8:31) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-4-D.Reed at BAL 19. 4-D.Reed to BAL 16 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jahmyr Gibbs's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Mark Andrews27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jackson · two-point no good+638–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryRavens
Lions ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Ravens’s 55 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Ravens 6.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's blitz rate sent, 56.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
DET's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 41.4% in week 2 against 17.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-9.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 65 snaps
Ravens2.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.3 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 85%
Tendencies room →Lions33.3%leaned — ran early · −20.3 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 48 early downs
Ravens66.7%leaned — passed early · +20.8 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions17.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.7 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens25.6%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Lions75.0%right on their number · +9.4 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 61%
Tendencies room →Lions56.4%off script — sent pressure · +24.6 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens48.3%leaned — sent pressure · +18.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions17.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens20.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
DET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.4%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 31.8% and 2.2 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
21/27, 288 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
11.0 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected
Passing · DET
20/28, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
14.2 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/8 for 77 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
David Montgomery banked 19.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 29.4 | +19.5 | 37% | 31% | 4% | 2% | 12 car, 151 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 27.1 | +15.3 | 81% | 77% | 21% | 23% | 6/6, 91 yd, 2 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 27.0 | +7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 288 yd, 3 TD · 7 car, 35 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 26.9 | −0.3 | 69% | 72% | 23% | 0% | 22 car, 67 yd, 2 TD · 5/6, 32 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | +4.5 | 85% | 97% | 31% | 37% | 7/8, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.3 | +3.5 | 60% | 64% | 25% | 33% | 5/7, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/28, 202 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 6 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.7 | −4.8 | 49% | 36% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd · 12 car, 50 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 7.5 | +1.0 | 51% | 56% | 14% | 6% | 3/4, 45 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +0.2 | 84% | 90% | 15% | 12% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.0 | 91% | 90% | 12% | 26% | 2/3, 43 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +2.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.8 | 51% | 36% | 11% | 12% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.2 | 86% | 87% | 11% | 3% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.1 | 25% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.4 | 49% | 48% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 56% | 56% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 21% | 38% | 8% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:53) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to BAL 13 for 72 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q3 2:53 · Lions · 2nd & 10 at DET 15 · gained 72 · +5.44 EP · +18.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 98 yards from the DET 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions6
Ravens0Lions7Ravens0Lions7Ravens6Lions7Ravens7Lions13Ravens7Lions14Ravens7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Lions14Ravens13Lions14Ravens14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Lions14Ravens20Lions14Ravens21Lions20Ravens21Lions21Ravens21How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Lions27Ravens21Lions28Ravens21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions28Ravens24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Lions31Ravens24Lions37Ravens24Lions38Ravens24Lions38Ravens30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/28 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 151 | 12.6 | 2 | +11.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 2 | +1.2 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 31% | +8.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 12% | +4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 8 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Anzalone |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/27 | 288 | 3 | 0 | 7 | +11.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_03_DET_BAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 68 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +4.4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 23% | −1.1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 | −5.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 6 | 91 | 2 | 21% | +10.1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 25% | +6.2 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 14% | +0.7 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4% | +2.8 |
| Charlie Kolar | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.5 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Tampa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
