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Green Bay Packers 10 at Cleveland Browns 13. Final.
Packers -8.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Cleveland Browns 13, Packers 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:27, 4th and 13, on Brandon McManus — 34.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:27 · 4th and 13
Brandon McManus
Browns
(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
U 41.5 ✓
Packers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, Browns +34.9% win probability on one snap.
34.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Grant DelpitBrownsQ4 3:18(3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at GB 29. 9-G.Delpit pushed ob at GB 4 for 25 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
17.8pts
Andre SzmytBrownsQ4 0:02(:02) 25-A.Szmyt 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Offside, declined.
25.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 19 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 13 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Packers162 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
Swing +34.9 for BrownsExpected points +3.08 for BrownsThe model had Browns 17 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:27GB +35% win prob(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
4th · 0:02CLE +26% win prob(:02) 25-A.Szmyt 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 3:18GB +18% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at GB 29. 9-G.Delpit pushed ob at GB 4 for 25 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
4th · 0:12CLE +15% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku to GB 37 for 8 yards (33-E.Williams).
4th · 2:47CLE +9% win prob(2:47) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to CLE 22 for 18 yards (21-D.Ward).
4th · 0:21CLE +8% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-1-M.Parsons, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andre Szmyt's 55-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:57Brandon McManus·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
3rd3:29John FitzPatrick·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–0
4th3:45Andre Szmyt·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+310–3
4th0:02Andre Szmyt·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.SunaharaLead never changed again+310–13
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBrowns
Packers4–2Browns
231Total yards221
3.9Yards per play3.9
37%Success rate29%
53%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays2
12First downs12
5Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.15Browns: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.25Browns: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 60 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Browns’s 56 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Browns 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns16.1%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.0%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.3 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 1 never used
75Sean RhyanG · Every snap100%65 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsC · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Jordan MorganG · Full-time98%64 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Full-time94%61 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time88%57 snaps
0Matthew GoldenWR · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
71Anthony BeltonT · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Rotational46%30 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Situational23%15 snaps
23Emanuel WilsonRB · Situational23%15 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Situational20%13 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Situational12%8 snaps
83Savion WilliamsWR · Situational9%6 snaps
70Darian KinnardT · Situational6%4 snaps
16Bo MeltonCB · Situational5%3 snaps
50Zach TomT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 3
Kamal HaddenCBWarren BrinsonDTDonovan JenningsG
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Malik WillisQB
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Full-time94%62 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
80Jamari ThrashWR · Situational18%12 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational9%6 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational8%5 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational6%4 snaps
79Dawand JonesT · Situational6%4 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Situational3%2 snaps
56Luke WyplerC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Cameron MitchellCBMike Hall Jr.DTDamontae KazeeFSZak ZinterGShedeur SandersQBRaheim SandersRBJack ConklinT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brandon McManus−32% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
Q4 0:27 · Packers · 4th & 13 at CLE 25 · gained nothing · -3.08 EP · −31.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 71 yards from the GB 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
451
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0457%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1566%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1371%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1038%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Packers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 27
The period ended14 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Browns 16
2nd quarter44 plays
Packers3Browns0
Field goal2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Packers 45
Punt18 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Browns 38
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Packers 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 31
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
Packers9Browns0
Packers10Browns0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Browns 3
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 44
4th quarter60 plays
Punt1 play
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 40
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 38
Packers10Browns3
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 25
Packers10Browns9
Packers10Browns10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Browns 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Packers10Browns13
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Packers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -8.5
Closing total
41.5
Packers moneyline
-470
Browns moneyline
+360
Packers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 23 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 78°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; partly cloudy.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Packers 10 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Kevin Stefanski
4th · 2:52CLE +6% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Doubs (26-M.Harden). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
3rd · 9:56CLE +6% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to CLE 48 for 31 yards (30-D.Bush).
