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Houston Texans 10 at Jacksonville Jaguars 17. Final.
Jaguars -1.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Texans 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:25, 1st and 10, on Nico Collins — 19.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:25 · 1st and 10
Nico Collins
Texans
(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jaguars closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 9:25, Texans +19.8% win probability on one snap.
19.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor LawrenceTexansQ4 6:18(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).
14.6pts
Nico CollinsJaguarsQ4 3:58(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (3-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (3-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-0-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 17 for 2 yards (86-D.Schultz; 19-X.Hutchinson).
19.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Texans at 2 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.8 for JaguarsExpected points −4.30 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 3 points higher than the market did.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:25JAX +20% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:58HOU +19% win prob(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (3-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (3-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-0-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 17 for 2 yards (86-D.Schultz; 19-X.Hutchinson).
4th · 6:18HOU +15% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).
4th · 0:27HOU +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson (41-J.Hines-Allen) at JAX 4. 26-An.Johnson to JAX 4 for no gain (19-X.Hutchinson).
4th · 2:00JAX +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at HOU 10 for 46 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
4th · 13:56HOU +10% win prob(13:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at JAX 19. 2-J.Lewis to JAX 25 for 6 yards (86-D.Schultz).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Etienne's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 1:52 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:52Travis Etienne·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans2–6Jaguars
272Total yards292
4.8Yards per play4.5
32%Success rate37%
33%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays4
11First downs15
2Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Texans: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Texans: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Texans: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.12Jaguars: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 65 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars11.9%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.3%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 54.8% and 1.4 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:25 · Texans · 1st & 10 at 50 · gained 50 · +4.30 EP · +23.0% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 83 yards from the JAX 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
35%
Yards
562
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0875%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1779%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4336%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.3427%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 42
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 10
No good9 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Jaguars 27
Texans0Jaguars6
Texans0Jaguars7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 36
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 46
Texans3Jaguars7
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Jaguars 9
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 25
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 44
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 33
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 48
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Texans3Jaguars10
Field goal17 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Texans 17
Punt6 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Texans 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 42
4th quarter53 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Jaguars 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 14
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans9Jaguars10
Texans10Jaguars10
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Texans 47
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Jaguars 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans10Jaguars16
Texans10Jaguars17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Texans 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Jaguars 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -1.5
Closing total
43.5
Texans moneyline
+105
Jaguars moneyline
-125
Jaguars closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 27 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; 0.02 in of precipitation; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Texans 6 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Liam Coen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 9:33HOU +9% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at 50. 5-J.Pitre to 50 for no gain (11-P.Washington).
3rd · 8:00JAX +9% win prob(8:00) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PENALTY on HOU-95-D.Barnett, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 33 - No Play.
