2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston Texans

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -1.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Jaguars closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 9:25, JAX +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:25HOU 9 — JAX 10HOU ball · 1st & 10JAX 76%

(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:25JAX +20% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:58HOU +19% win prob(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (3-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (3-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-0-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 17 for 2 yards (86-D.Schultz; 19-X.Hutchinson).
Q4 · 6:18HOU +15% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).
Q4 · 0:27HOU +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson (41-J.Hines-Allen) at JAX 4. 26-An.Johnson to JAX 4 for no gain (19-X.Hutchinson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:09JAX Touchdown
(2:09) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — JAX 7
Q2 · 6:57HOU Field goal
(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — JAX 7
Q3 · 6:27JAX Field goal
(6:27) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — JAX 10
Q4 · 9:25HOU Touchdown
(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — JAX 10
Q4 · 1:52JAX Touchdown
(1:52) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — JAX 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	272	292 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.21	-0.16 (edge)
Success rate	32%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	4/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/40, 222 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -17.0% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

25/38, 204 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-4.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

9 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

8/11 for 104 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brenton StrangeTE

6/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 35	5	7	1:37	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 3	4	7	2:13	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 48	8	24	4:30	Missed field goal
4	JAX	JAX 42	10	47	4:34	Touchdown +7
5	HOU	HOU 20	5	-4	1:37	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 31	7	15	1:38	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 20	13	61	6:57	Field goal +3
8	JAX	JAX 20	5	5	1:09	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 35	4	9	1:28	Punt
10	JAX	JAX 31	4	-11	2:24	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 42	4	11	1:00	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 19	6	25	0:49	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 18	1	0	0:04	End of half
14	JAX	JAX 20	14	64	8:37	Field goal +3
15	HOU	HOU 30	6	4	2:38	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 46	5	25	2:34	Missed field goal
17	HOU	HOU 37	5	31	2:23	Interception
18	JAX	JAX 25	4	7	1:40	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 8	4	6	2:25	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 33	3	0	0:18	Interception
21	HOU	50	2	50	0:08	Touchdown +7
22	JAX	JAX 28	8	25	3:03	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	HOU 47	5	32	2:27	Fumble
24	JAX	JAX 17	8	83	1:59	Touchdown +7
25	HOU	HOU 26	10	41	1:28	Interception
26	JAX	JAX 4	1	0	0:20	End of game

5 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 83 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	25/38	204	1	2	2	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	9	38	4.2	-1.1
Woody Marks	6	27	4.5	-2.8
C.J. Stroud	4	22	5.5	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	8	11	104	1	31%	4.0
Dalton Schultz	5	6	39	0	17%	1.8
Christian Kirk	3	8	25	0	22%	-7.8
Xavier Hutchinson	3	3	16	0	8%	-0.1
Woody Marks	1	2	9	0	6%	-0.6
Jayden Higgins	1	1	5	0	3%	0.7
Jaylin Noel	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.3
Nick Chubb	3	4	2	0	11%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	4	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kamari Lassiter	5	0	0.0	0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Tremon Smith	3	1	0.0	0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	3	1	1.0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tommy Togiai	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Pitre	3	0	0.0	1	3
Dylan Horton	2	1	0.5	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	20/40	222	0	1	2	-9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	16	56	3.5	1	-1.8
Bhayshul Tuten	6	21	3.5	1	-0.9
Trevor Lawrence	2	9	4.5	0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brenton Strange	6	7	61	18%	2.1
Brian Thomas Jr.	2	6	55	16%	0.4
Parker Washington	4	11	34	29%	-8.0
Travis Hunter	1	2	21	5%	1.3
Tim Patrick	1	1	16	3%	0.9
Hunter Long	2	3	12	8%	-0.5
LeQuint Allen Jr.	1	1	9	3%	-0.5
Johnny Mundt	1	1	7	3%	0.4
Dyami Brown	2	3	7	8%	0.2
Travis Etienne	0	2	0	5%	-1.3
Bhayshul Tuten	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tyson Campbell	7	0	0	1
Andrew Wingard	4	2	0	0
Devin Lloyd	4	2	0	0
Foye Oluokun	5	1	0	0
Travis Hunter	3	2	0	0
Antonio Johnson	1	3	1	1
Dennis Gardeck	3	1	0	1
Dawuane Smoot	2	2	0	0
Eric Murray	2	2	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	3	1	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -1.5
Closing total: 43.5
HOU moneyline: +105
JAX moneyline: -125

Jaguars closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 27 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: HOU 6 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Liam Coen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.