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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Colts159 of 167 plays carry both curves
(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.3 for TitansExpected points −7.87 for TitansThe model had Titans 25 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:20IND +11% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:19IND +5% win prob(3:19) 3-S.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
1st · 10:43TEN +5% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 1-J.Downs ran ob at TEN 13 for 29 yards (37-A.Hooker) [49-A.Key].
1st · 12:45TEN +3% win prob(12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
1st · 7:40IND +3% win prob(7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2nd · 0:42IND +3% win prob(:42) 6-J.Slye 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
1st · 6:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenny Moore II's 32-yard touchdown with 14:20 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:20Kenny Moore II·32-yd defence TD32-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored itLead never changed again+77–0
1st12:45Joey Slye·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+37–3
1st7:40Spencer Shrader·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–3
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Colts: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.17Titans: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Colts: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.25Titans: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Colts: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 50 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Titans’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Titans 2.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 15.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Titans7.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.4%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.4 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Matt GoncalvesG · Every snap100%57 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Full-time88%50 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Full-time88%50 snaps
17Daniel JonesQB · Full-time88%50 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Full-time88%50 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time81%46 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation79%45 snaps
84Tyler WarrenTE · Heavy rotation68%39 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation51%29 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational49%28 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational42%24 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational16%9 snaps
21DJ GiddensRB · Situational14%8 snaps
68Dalton TuckerG · Situational12%7 snaps
63Danny PinterC · Situational12%7 snaps
75Jalen TravisT · Situational12%7 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Situational12%7 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational7%4 snaps
6Anthony GouldWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
JT TuimoloauDEChad MumaMLBRiley LeonardQBLuke TenutaTWill MalloryTE
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%70 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Cam WardQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Lloyd Cushenberry IIIC · Every snap100%70 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Full-time91%64 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time87%61 snaps
5Elic AyomanorWR · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
72Olisaemeka UdohT · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
4Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Rotational44%31 snaps
17Chimere DikeWR · Rotational41%29 snaps
84Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational39%27 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Rotational34%24 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational9%6 snaps
88David Martin-RobinsonTE · Situational1%1 snap
62Corey LevinC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Samuel WomackCBJarvis Brownlee Jr.CBKevin ZeitlerGJames WilliamsILBKevin Winston Jr.SSJC LathamTBryce OliverWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Ward pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:20 · Titans · 3rd & 9 at TEN 36 · gained nothing · -7.87 EP · −19.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
52%
Yards
647
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.2065%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3553%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.7745%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.1540%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Colts6Titans0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 36
Colts7Titans0
Colts7Titans3
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Colts 38
Colts10Titans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Titans 6
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 35
Colts16Titans3
Colts17Titans3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Titans 1
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Colts17Titans6
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Colts 24
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Colts 45
No good8 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Colts 47
No good5 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 32
No good9 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Colts 39
Colts20Titans6
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 18
3rd quarter39 plays
Colts26Titans6
Colts27Titans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Titans 20
Colts27Titans12
Colts27Titans13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Colts 1
Colts33Titans13
Colts34Titans13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Titans 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 40
4th quarter40 plays
Colts34Titans19
Colts34Titans20
Touchdown18 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Colts 2
Colts40Titans20
Colts41Titans20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Titans 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Titans 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
