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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

41

Tennessee Titans

20

IND -6 ✓O 43.5 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 41–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:20, IND +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑IND ↓
Q1 · 14:20IND 6 — TEN 0TEN ball · 3rd & 9IND 74%

(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:20IND +11% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 3:19IND +5% win prob(3:19) 3-S.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
  3. Q1 · 10:43TEN +5% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 1-J.Downs ran ob at TEN 13 for 29 yards (37-A.Hooker) [49-A.Key].
  4. Q1 · 12:45TEN +3% win prob(12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 14:20IND Touchdown

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 0
  2. Q1 · 12:45TEN Field goal

    (12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 3
  3. Q1 · 7:40IND Field goal

    (7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 3
  4. Q1 · 1:11IND Touchdown

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — TEN 3
  5. Q2 · 10:54TEN Field goal

    (10:54) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: IND 17 — TEN 6
  6. Q2 · 0:03IND Field goal

    (:03) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — TEN 6
  7. Q3 · 11:14IND Touchdown

    (11:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 27 — TEN 6
  8. Q3 · 5:11TEN Touchdown

    (5:11) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 27 — TEN 13
  9. Q3 · 1:36IND Touchdown

    (1:36) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 34 — TEN 13
  10. Q4 · 8:45TEN Touchdown

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 34 — TEN 20
  11. Q4 · 5:58IND Touchdown

    (5:58) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 41 — TEN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTitans
Offensive plays5065
Total yards368 (edge)282
Yards per play7.4 (edge)4.3
Expected points added / play0.39 (edge)-0.17
Success rate56% (edge)45%
Dropback rate54%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.48 (edge)-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.01
Third downs2/75/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1919
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

18/25, 228 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

23/38, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.5 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

17 att, 102 yds, 3 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

16 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/6 for 73 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/5 for 67 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 35410:49Defensive touchdown
2TENTEN 406211:31Field goal +3
3INDIND 3510695:03Field goal +3
4TENTEN 345-92:21Punt
5INDIND 2310764:09Touchdown +7
6TENTEN 2212595:17Field goal +3
7INDIND 40551:37Punt
8TENTEN 98443:39Missed field goal
9INDTEN 465142:19Missed field goal
10TENTEN 416202:38Missed field goal
11INDTEN 485300:37Field goal +3
12INDIND 338623:52Touchdown +7
13TENTEN 2715705:59Touchdown +7
14INDIND 209803:42Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 2318777:47Touchdown +7
16INDIND 427212:47Touchdown +7
17TENTEN 345-11:18Turnover on downs
18INDTEN 327114:35End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones18/2522810010.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor171026.033.5
Daniel Jones4276.804.9
Tyler Goodson263.00-0.5
DJ Giddens133.00-0.7
Anthony Richardson4-1-0.30-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman6673124%5.5
Alec Pierce4567020%4.6
Tyler Warren3538020%2.2
Josh Downs2334012%1.7
Jonathan Taylor3416016%-0.9
Adonai Mitchell02008%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin420.001
Nick Cross420.000
DeForest Buckner320.000
Grover Stewart140.000
Mekhi Blackmon410.000
Joe Bachie500.000
Austin Ajiake130.000
Samson Ebukam210.000
Laiatu Latu210.000
Camryn Bynum210.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cam Ward23/38219114-12.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard16452.81-1.2
Julius Chestnut22613.002.0
Cam Ward3124.001.2
Chimere Dike231.50-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chig Okonkwo5666018%1.3
Elic Ayomanor4538115%5.9
Tyler Lockett4437012%3.6
Calvin Ridley1727021%-4.5
Gunnar Helm332709%1.4
Tony Pollard2414012%-8.3
Van Jefferson11803%0.2
Chimere Dike342012%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier Woods510.001
Cody Barton510.000
Cedric Gray330.000
Amani Hooker500.002
Sebastian Joseph-Day310.000
Jeffery Simmons210.000
Kyzir White210.000
Joey Slye110.000
Roger McCreary110.000
Oluwafemi Oladejo110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -6
Closing total
43.5
IND moneyline
-245
TEN moneyline
+200

Colts closed -6 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 61 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
84°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
IND 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Brian Callahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.