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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles26
BY 7final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia33
Los Angeles Rams 26 at Philadelphia Eagles 33. Final.
Eagles -3.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles 33, Rams 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 3, on Joshua Karty — 66.8 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 3
Joshua Karty
Eagles
(:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Philadelphia Eagles 33–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Eagles +66.8% win probability on one snap.
66.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ4 4:48(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown ran ob at LA 15 for 23 yards (2-J.McCollough).
16.2pts
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ4 1:51(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Rams at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 7 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Rams163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +66.8 for EaglesExpected points +9.35 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 6 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03LA +67% win prob(:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:51PHI +26% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:48PHI +16% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown ran ob at LA 15 for 23 yards (2-J.McCollough).
1st · 1:28PHI +13% win prob(1:28) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55LA +13% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown.
1st · 13:32LA +11% win prob(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 53-Z.Baun at LA 38. 53-Z.Baun to LA 38 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeVonta Smith's 4-yard touchdown catch with 1:51 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Rams: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.11Eagles: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 65 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Eagles’s 63 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 25.0% in week 2 against 100.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 36.0 points.
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.0 pts in week 2 against −5.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteLA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 55.3%, 30.3 points above their season mean of 25.0% and 2.7 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
67Justin DedichG · Every snap100%66 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%66 snaps
12Puka NacuaWR · Full-time91%60 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Full-time88%58 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time86%57 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
87Davis AllenTE · Rotational38%25 snaps
5Tutu AtwellWR · Rotational38%25 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational32%21 snaps
22Blake CorumRB · Situational24%16 snaps
50Beaux LimmerC · Situational12%8 snaps
15Konata MumpfieldWR · Situational11%7 snaps
Inactive · 5
Steve AvilaGNick HamptonOLBStetson BennettQBD.J. HumphriesTTerrance FergusonTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joshua Karty−61% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:03 · Rams · 3rd & 3 at PHI 26 · gained nothing · -9.35 EP · −60.8% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1266%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1263%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.5019%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.6425%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 36
Rams0Eagles6
Rams0Eagles7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 1
Rams3Eagles7
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 33
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams9Eagles7
Rams10Eagles7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Eagles 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 21
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt1 play
Rams13Eagles7
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Eagles 2
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 12
Rams16Eagles7
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Eagles 15
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 15
Rams19Eagles7
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 13
Rams25Eagles7
Rams26Eagles7
Touchdown2 plays
Rams26Eagles13
Rams26Eagles14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Rams 33
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Eagles 49
Rams26Eagles20
Rams26Eagles21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Rams 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 45
4th quarter49 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Eagles 46
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Rams 47
No good7 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Rams26Eagles27
Touchdown19 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Rams 4
Rams26Eagles33
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
