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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.3 for CommandersExpected points +5.72 for CommandersThe model had Raiders 3 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:42WAS +14% win prob(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00WAS +10% win prob8-D.Carlson kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to WAS 4. 1-D.Samuel to LV 27 for 69 yards (27-T.McCollum).
1st · 1:25LV +9% win prob(1:25) 16-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
1st · 5:01WAS +7% win prob(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 23 for 9 yards (30-D.Holmes; 20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 23.
1st · 11:51WAS +7% win prob(11:51) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at WAS 15 for 45 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
2nd · 6:27WAS +7% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to WAS 24 for 17 yards (54-B.Wagner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jeremy McNichols's 60-yard rushing touchdown with 3:42 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th2:12Luke McCaffrey·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+724–41
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryCommanders
Raiders2–6Commanders
356Total yards400
5.6Yards per play7.5
36%Success rate49%
21%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
19First downs16
5Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Raiders: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.28Commanders: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Raiders: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.57Commanders: +0.57 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Raiders: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Commanders’s 53 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Commanders 5.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's play-action rate, 45.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 7.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, −15.4 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 2.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.8% in week 2 against 25.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.8% in week 2 against 34.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Commanders25.7%
leaned — got home · +11.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 11.5 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.8 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
61Jordan MeredithC · Every snap100%66 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Full-time98%65 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time83%55 snaps
2Ashton JeantyRB · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Heavy rotation59%39 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.McNichols up+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:42 · Commanders · 2nd & 5 at WAS 40 · gained 60 · +5.72 EP · +16.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 83 yards from the LV 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0161%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0459%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15+0.020%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2831%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5857%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Raiders0Commanders6
Raiders0Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 2
Raiders3Commanders7
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Commanders 14
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Raiders 49
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 28
No good12 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Raiders 19
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Raiders3Commanders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Raiders 27
Raiders9Commanders10
Raiders10Commanders10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Commanders 10
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Raiders10Commanders16
Raiders10Commanders17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 40
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 41
Raiders10Commanders20
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Raiders 37
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 36
Punt5 plays
Raiders10Commanders26
Touchdown4 plays
Raiders10Commanders27
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Raiders 30
Raiders10Commanders33
Raiders10Commanders34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Raiders 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Commanders 43
4th quarter48 plays
Raiders16Commanders34
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 10
Punt12 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Raiders 29
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Commanders 49
The period ended7 plays
Raiders22Commanders34
Raiders24Commanders34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 39
Raiders24Commanders40
Raiders24Commanders41
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Raiders 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -2.5
Closing total
43.5
Raiders moneyline
+130
Commanders moneyline
-155
Commanders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 65 — over by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Raiders 6 days · Commanders 10 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Dan Quinn
1st · 8:02
LV +7% win prob
(8:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end to LV 27 for 22 yards (99-T.Booker). FUMBLES (99-T.Booker), touched at LV 21, RECOVERED by LV-36-K.Kelly at LV 21. 36-K.Kelly to LV 24 for 3 yards (19-C.Moore).
3rd · 9:54LV +6% win prob(9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
