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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · FedExField

Las Vegas Raiders

24

Washington CommandersWinner

41

WAS -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓

Washington Commanders 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:42, WAS +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑LV ↓
Q2 · 3:42LV 10 — WAS 16WAS ball · 2nd & 5WAS 57%

(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 3:42WAS +14% win prob(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 15:00WAS +10% win prob8-D.Carlson kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to WAS 4. 1-D.Samuel to LV 27 for 69 yards (27-T.McCollum).
  3. Q1 · 1:25LV +9% win prob(1:25) 16-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
  4. Q1 · 5:01WAS +7% win prob(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 23 for 9 yards (30-D.Holmes; 20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 23.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:56WAS Touchdown

    (11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — WAS 7
  2. Q1 · 9:49LV Field goal

    (9:49) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — WAS 7
  3. Q2 · 10:00WAS Field goal

    (10:00) 16-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — WAS 10
  4. Q2 · 4:26LV Touchdown

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — WAS 10
  5. Q2 · 3:42WAS Touchdown

    (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — WAS 17
  6. Q2 · 0:04WAS Field goal

    (:04) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — WAS 20
  7. Q3 · 9:54WAS Touchdown

    (9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — WAS 27
  8. Q3 · 3:07WAS Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — WAS 34
  9. Q4 · 13:03LV Touchdown

    (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 1-T.Tucker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 16 — WAS 34
  10. Q4 · 3:45LV Touchdown

    (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LV 24 — WAS 34
  11. Q4 · 2:12WAS Touchdown

    (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-L.McCaffrey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 24 — WAS 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersCommanders
Offensive plays6453
Total yards356400 (edge)
Yards per play5.67.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.040.28 (edge)
Success rate36%49% (edge)
Dropback rate55%42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.350.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.320.07 (edge)
Third downs3/145/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken51 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

19/29, 289 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.2 expected points added · +11.7% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

15/21, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +14.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

17 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

6 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Tre TuckerWR

8/9 for 145 yds, 3 TD

33% of team targets · 15.7 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

3/4 for 74 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASLV 277273:09Touchdown +7
2LVLV 406462:05Field goal +3
3WASWAS 295441:57Fumble
4LVLV 24442:26Punt
5WASWAS 2410524:01Missed field goal
6LVLV 27401:06Punt
7WASWAS 288595:20Field goal +3
8LVLV 2011855:36Touchdown +7
9WASWAS 354650:49Touchdown +7
10LVLV 30963:04Punt
11WASWAS 354120:27Field goal +3
12LVLV 305-22:17Punt
13WASWAS 21411:50Punt
14LVLV 364-21:18Defensive touchdown
15LVLV 19864:12Punt
16WASWAS 376632:20Touchdown +7
17LVLV 3013755:06Touchdown +6
18WASWAS 2912426:09Punt
19LVLV 77442:00Turnover on downs
20WASWAS 494-110:28Punt
21LVLV 174850:38Touchdown +8
22WASLV 465461:37Touchdown +7
23LVLV 30492:05End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith19/2928930512.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty17633.70-5.3
Zamir White5193.80-2.9
Geno Smith252.504.0
Tre Tucker144.00-0.3
Dylan Laube320.70-4.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tre Tucker89145333%15.7
Jakobi Meyers3463015%4.0
Brock Bowers4538019%0.4
Dont'e Thornton Jr.2429015%0.2
Jack Bech111004%2.0
Zamir White12407%-1.2
Dylan Laube01004%-0.3
Michael Mayer01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Maxx Crosby431.000
Kyu Blu Kelly410.001
Germaine Pratt140.000
Adam Butler410.000
Jeremy Chinn410.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao140.000
Elandon Roberts310.000
Devin White130.000
Darien Porter400.000
Thomas Booker210.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota15/2120710110.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeremy McNichols47819.516.8
Marcus Mariota6406.71-2.0
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11393.50-1.9
Jacory Croskey-Merritt8263.310.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.3186.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin3474022%5.4
Luke McCaffrey3356117%6.8
Zach Ertz3338017%2.1
Chris Moore2225011%2.4
Deebo Samuel Sr.2311017%1.7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11506%-0.2
Jaylin Lane12-2011%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner652.000
Frankie Luvu430.000
Daron Payne420.000
Mike Sainristil320.000
Dorance Armstrong221.000
Jeremy Reaves220.000
Marshon Lattimore210.001
Noah Igbinoghene210.001
Jordan Magee300.000
Quan Martin120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Closing total
43.5
LV moneyline
+130
WAS moneyline
-155

Commanders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 65 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
LV 6 days · WAS 10 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Dan Quinn