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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 18, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 3
It turned at Q4 3:06, 1st and 10, on Terrel Bernard — 14.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 3:06, Bills +14.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:06 · 1st and 10
Terrel Bernard
Bills
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Khalil Shakir's 15-yard touchdown catch with 7:23 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Khalil Shakir15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh AllenLead never changed again+721–288 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Bills 5.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-11.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 59 snaps
Bills4.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.6 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins53.5%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 43 early downs
Bills52.2%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Dolphins20.0%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bills21.9%right on their number · −5.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 59%
Tendencies room →Dolphins34.4%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills28.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Dolphins6.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.6 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
22/28, 213 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
10.6 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
22/34, 146 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Khalil Shakir banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/28, 213 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 25 yd |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.8 | +4.8 | 67% | 56% | 11% | 5% | 19 car, 108 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +5.9 | 55% | 63% | 22% | 45% | 5/6, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Committee Back | 16.1 | −3.5 | 77% | 94% | 27% | 0% | 12 car, 62 yd · 7/9, 29 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | −2.7 | 87% | 94% | 30% | 77% | 5/10, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 14.9 | +4.8 | 87% | 89% | 18% | 13% | 5/6, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +8.3 | 70% | 81% | 15% | 0% | 4/4, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/34, 146 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 9.8 | +1.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | — | 9 car, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +3.4 | 43% | 22% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −3.4 | 54% | 66% | 15% | 9% | 2 car, 20 yd · 3/5, 12 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.6 | 23% | 28% | 11% | 8% | 1 car, 11 yd · 2/3, 30 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −2.3 | 75% | 84% | 15% | 14% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.1 | 20% | 19% | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 3.1 | −1.4 | 25% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 3 car, 13 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.1 | 43% | 60% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 43% | 47% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 56% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Q4 3:06 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at BUF 21 · gained nothing · -5.82 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 71 yards from the MIA 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins6
Bills0Dolphins7Bills0Dolphins7Bills6Dolphins7Bills7Dolphins7Bills13Dolphins7Bills14Dolphins13Bills14Dolphins14Bills14Dolphins14Bills20Dolphins14Bills21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Dolphins20Bills21Dolphins21Bills21How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins21Bills27Dolphins21Bills28How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins21Bills31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/34 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Malik Washington |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 30% | +5.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Dodson | 11 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/28 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_03_MIA_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -12.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 52 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 20 |
| 10.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| +2.5 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 27% | −4.6 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 22% | +5.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 15% | +4.0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7% | +3.0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −0.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Strong | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
