2025 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 18, 2025 · New Era Field
Miami Dolphins
21
Buffalo BillsWinner
31
Buffalo Bills 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 3:06, MIA +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 3:06MIA +14% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
- Q4 · 10:20BUF +12% win prob(10:20) 16-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
- Q4 · 7:23BUF +10% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 12:22BUF +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 8:34MIA Touchdown
(8:34) 31-O.Gordon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 0 - Q1 · 4:11BUF Touchdown
(4:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 7 - Q2 · 12:00BUF Touchdown
(12:00) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 85-J.Hawes for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 14 - Q2 · 0:11MIA Touchdown
(:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 14 - Q3 · 10:25BUF Touchdown
(10:25) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 21 - Q4 · 12:22MIA Touchdown
(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 21 — BUF 21 - Q4 · 7:23BUF Touchdown
(7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 21 — BUF 28 - Q4 · 0:27BUF Field goal
(:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: MIA 21 — BUF 31
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 57 |
| Total yards | 276 | 360 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.05 | 0.28 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 54% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 59% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 | 0.38 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.06 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Third downs | 10/15 (edge) | 6/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
22/28, 213 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
10.6 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
22/34, 146 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | BUF 47 | 12 | 52 | 6:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 15 | 9 | 65 | 4:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 15 | 5 | 7 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 37 | 11 | 63 | 5:30 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 26 | 5 | 1 | 1:10 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 27 | 9 | 52 | 4:41 | Missed field goal | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 29 | 17 | 71 | 5:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 30 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 39 | 10 | 69 | 4:37 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 29 | 5 | -1 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 20 | 4 | 7 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIA | MIA 36 | 4 | 5 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 16 | 7 | 15 | 2:34 | Punt | |
| 14 | MIA | MIA 33 | 10 | 72 | 5:40 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 35 | 11 | 50 | 5:01 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 37 | 10 | 42 | 4:17 | Interception | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 41 | 6 | 39 | 2:38 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 35 | 4 | 27 | 0:22 | End of game |
8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 72 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/34 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.3 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 30% | 5.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 18% | 2.5 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 27% | -4.6 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | -0.1 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 15% | -2.1 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Dodson | 11 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/28 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 22% | 5.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 15% | 4.0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 11% | -0.3 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7% | 3.0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 15% | 1.1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | -0.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | -0.4 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 0.2 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4% | 1.2 |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -12.5
- Closing total
- 50.5
- MIA moneyline
- +550
- BUF moneyline
- -800
Bills closed -12.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 52 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 68°F, wind 7 mph
- Referee
- Alan Eck
- Rest
- MIA 4 days · BUF 4 days
- Coaches
- Mike McDaniel vs Sean McDermott
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.