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Buffalo Bills 31, Dolphins 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:06, 1st and 10, on Terrel Bernard — 14.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:06 · 1st and 10
Terrel Bernard
Bills
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Bills closed -12.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 3:06, Bills +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ4 10:20(10:20) 16-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
12.2pts
Khalil ShakirBillsQ4 7:23(7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins149 of 162 plays carry both curves
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Swing +14.2 for BillsExpected points +5.82 for BillsThe model had Dolphins 12 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:06MIA +14% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
4th · 10:20BUF +12% win prob(10:20) 16-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
4th · 7:23BUF +10% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:22BUF +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:11BUF +7% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:34MIA +7% win prob(8:34) 31-O.Gordon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Khalil Shakir's 15-yard touchdown catch with 7:23 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st8:34Ollie Gordon II·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdown+77–0
4th0:27Matt Prater·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Ferguson+321–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins2–7Bills
276Total yards360
4.7Yards per play6.3
41%Success rate54%
67%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays8
19First downs20
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Dolphins: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.28Bills: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Dolphins: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.38Bills: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Dolphins: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.15Bills: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 2.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.6 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Q4 3:06 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at BUF 21 · gained nothing · -5.82 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 71 yards from the MIA 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
46%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.4063%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0767%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25-0.0344%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2325%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.3025%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Dolphins6Bills0
Dolphins7Bills0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 2
Dolphins7Bills6
Dolphins7Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Dolphins 20
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Dolphins 31
2nd quarter46 plays
Dolphins7Bills13
Dolphins7Bills14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 5
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 27
No good9 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Dolphins 14
Dolphins13Bills14
Dolphins14Bills14
Touchdown21 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Bills 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Dolphins14Bills20
Dolphins14Bills21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 27
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 41
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Bills 42
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Dolphins20Bills21
Dolphins21Bills21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 5
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Dolphins21Bills27
Dolphins21Bills28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Dolphins 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Bills 21
Dolphins21Bills31
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
