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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Saints171 of 178 plays carry both curves
(11:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NO 26 for 29 yards (1-A.Taylor).
Swing +5.8 for SeahawksExpected points +2.30 for SeahawksThe model had Saints 16 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:42SEA +6% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NO 26 for 29 yards (1-A.Taylor).
1st · 7:51NO +6% win prob(7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:58NO +3% win prob(4:58) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 23-D.Bell, Center-49-Z.Wood, recovered by NO-53-J.Ford at NO 11.
1st · 12:30NO +2% win prob(12:30) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson.
1st · 12:26NO +2% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.
1st · 9:57SEA +2% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp (44-I.Stalbird). PENALTY on NO-90-B.Bresee, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at NO 24.
1st · 14:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 12-yard touchdown catch with 9:54 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:54Jaxon Smith-Njigba·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+70–7
1st7:51Tory Horton·95-yd return TD95-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–14
Seahawks ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Saints: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.14Seahawks: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.77Seahawks: +0.77 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Saints: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.27Seahawks: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 70 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 53 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 10.3% in week 2 against 31.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
NO's play-action rate turned over: 37.5% in week 2 against 17.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Seahawks15.6%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.4%, 11.5 points below their season mean of 47.8% and 1.2 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Kelvin Banks Jr.T · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Torricelli Simpkins IIIG · Every snap100%73 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Kroeger punts−8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:51 · Saints · 4th & 5 at NO 34 · gained nothing · -5.98 EP · −8.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0274%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2728%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.2669%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4638%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1917%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.760%
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Seahawks 45
Saints0Seahawks6
Saints0Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Saints 12
Saints0Seahawks13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 38
Saints0Seahawks14
Punt8 plays
Saints0Seahawks20
Saints0Seahawks21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 3
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Seahawks 33
2nd quarter56 plays
Saints3Seahawks21
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 9
Saints3Seahawks27
Saints3Seahawks28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 14
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 32
Saints3Seahawks34
Saints3Seahawks35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Saints 1
No good13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Seahawks 33
Saints3Seahawks38
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Saints 38
Saints6Seahawks38
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Seahawks 5
3rd quarter38 plays
Saints6Seahawks41
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Saints 25
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 28
Saints6Seahawks44
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Saints 19
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Seahawks 34
4th quarter39 plays
Saints12Seahawks44
Saints13Seahawks44
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 39
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Seahawks 37
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 16
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Saints 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
