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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
JetsNew York27
BY 2final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay29
New York Jets 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29. Final.
Buccaneers -6.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29, Jets 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 6, on Chase McLaughlin — 35.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 6
Chase McLaughlin
Jets
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Jets +35.6% win probability on one snap.
35.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Emeka EgbukaBuccaneersQ4 1:36(1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (8-A.Cisco).
17.0pts
Chase McLaughlinBuccaneersQ4 0:03(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
28.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Jets179 of 191 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −35.6 for BuccaneersExpected points −9.27 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00NYJ +36% win prob(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03TB +28% win prob(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4th · 1:36TB +17% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (8-A.Cisco).
4th · 1:41TB +12% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 17-S.Shepard to NYJ 18 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). ** Injury Update: NYJ-1-A.Gardner has returned to the game.
1st · 5:30TB +11% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
2nd · 2:59NYJ +10% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor sacked at NYJ 32 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at NYJ 33.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 36-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:55Nick Folk·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
1st2:26Chase McLaughlin·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.Deckers+33–3
2nd14:04Nick Folk·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+36–3
4th0:03Chase McLaughlin·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+327–29
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Jets3–6Buccaneers
268Total yards348
4.4Yards per play5.5
44%Success rate33%
27%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays10
18First downs16
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Jets: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.42Buccaneers: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Jets: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.42Buccaneers: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 61 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 70.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Buccaneers21.7%
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 2.6 pts, 11.9 points above their season mean of -9.3 pts and 1.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
66Joe TippmannG · Every snap100%69 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Armand MembouT · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Olumuyiwa FashanuT · Every snap100%69 snaps
5Garrett WilsonWR · Every snap100%69 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
82Arian SmithWR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
85Mason TaylorTE · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
16Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
0Braelon AllenRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
10Allen LazardWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
32Isaiah DavisRB · Situational13%9 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational12%8 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jay TufeleDTJermaine Johnson IIOLBJustin FieldsQBKene NwangwuRBTony AdamsSSEsa PoleTJosh ReynoldsWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Chase McLaughlin−42% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:00 · Buccaneers · 4th & 6 at NYJ 25 · gained nothing · -9.27 EP · −42.3% win probability
177 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2667%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0463%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12-0.138%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2956%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1933%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5050%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Jets3Buccaneers0
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Buccaneers 17
Jets3Buccaneers3
Field goal16 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Jets 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Buccaneers 28
2nd quarter58 plays
Jets6Buccaneers3
Field goal2 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Jets6Buccaneers9
Jets6Buccaneers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Jets 5
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 44
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 36
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 24
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 41
Jets6Buccaneers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 15
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Jets6Buccaneers19
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 45
Jets6Buccaneers20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Jets6Buccaneers23
Field goal18 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Jets 9
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter63 plays
Punt3 plays
Jets12Buccaneers23
Jets13Buccaneers23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Buccaneers 11
Jets13Buccaneers26
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Jets 31
Jets19Buccaneers26
Jets20Buccaneers26
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Buccaneers 4
Jets26Buccaneers26
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Jets 20
Jets27Buccaneers26
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Jets27Buccaneers29
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Jets 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -6.5
Closing total
43.5
Jets moneyline
+275
Buccaneers moneyline
-345
Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 56 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 89°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Jets 7 days · Buccaneers 6 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Todd Bowles
2nd · 0:28NYJ +9% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 45. 35-J.Dean for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:51TB +9% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 30 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Jetscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Jets3
Buccaneers0
