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2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

New York Jets

27

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

29

TB -6.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, NYJ +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 2:00NYJ 26 — TB 26TB ball · 4th & 6TB 98%

(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:00NYJ +36% win prob(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:03TB +28% win prob(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
  3. Q4 · 1:36TB +17% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (8-A.Cisco).
  4. Q4 · 1:41TB +12% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 17-S.Shepard to NYJ 18 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). ** Injury Update: NYJ-1-A.Gardner has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:55NYJ Field goal

    (8:55) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — TB 0
  2. Q1 · 2:26TB Field goal

    (2:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — TB 3
  3. Q2 · 14:04NYJ Field goal

    (14:04) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — TB 3
  4. Q2 · 11:18TB Touchdown

    (11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — TB 10
  5. Q2 · 1:47TB Field goal

    (1:47) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — TB 13
  6. Q2 · 0:28TB Touchdown

    (:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 45. 35-J.Dean for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — TB 20
  7. Q3 · 5:54TB Field goal

    (5:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — TB 23
  8. Q4 · 10:16NYJ Touchdown

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — TB 23
  9. Q4 · 6:18TB Field goal

    (6:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — TB 26
  10. Q4 · 3:46NYJ Touchdown

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 20 — TB 26
  11. Q4 · 2:00NYJ Touchdown

    (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 27 — TB 26
  12. Q4 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: NYJ 27 — TB 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsBuccaneers
Offensive plays6163
Total yards268348 (edge)
Yards per play4.45.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.190.02 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)33%
Dropback rate75%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.120.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.38 (edge)-0.42
Third downs3/114/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)410 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)16
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

19/29, 233 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Tyrod TaylorQB

26/36, 197 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.9 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

25 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-10.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Tyrod TaylorQB

8 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Emeka EgbukaWR

6/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

10/13 for 84 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 2912376:09Field goal +3
2TBTB 3210426:31Field goal +3
3NYJNYJ 377493:19Field goal +3
4TBTB 239772:46Touchdown +7
5NYJNYJ 35582:06Turnover on downs
6TBNYJ 43471:29Punt
7NYJNYJ 18411:59Punt
8TBTB 304-21:30Punt
9NYJNYJ 383-51:19Fumble
10TBNYJ 33531:09Field goal +3
11NYJNYJ 355-100:21Punt
12TBTB 23480:37Punt
13NYJNYJ 343110:28Defensive touchdown
14NYJNYJ 32200:17End of half
15TBTB 2317779:09Field goal +3
16NYJNYJ 2811345:24Turnover on downs
17TBTB 39411:21Punt
18NYJNYJ 2011803:54Touchdown +7
19TBTB 279413:59Field goal +3
20NYJNYJ 2713632:33Touchdown +7
21TBTB 357451:51Field goal
22TBTB 348491:49Field goal +3

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyrod Taylor26/36197214-7.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyrod Taylor8486.002.2
Braelon Allen6305.00-2.3
Breece Hall9212.30-3.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson101384137%-1.3
Tyler Johnson233209%1.3
Breece Hall4631017%-0.2
Mason Taylor4618017%-1.7
Braelon Allen221706%1.1
Allen Lazard231319%0.9
Arian Smith22206%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood460.000
Brandon Stephens620.000
Marcelino McCrary-Ball250.000
Harrison Phillips150.500
Quinnen Williams320.000
Sauce Gardner410.000
Quincy Williams310.501
Michael Carter II310.000
Andre Cisco220.000
Malachi Moore220.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield19/292331018.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving25662.60-10.2
Baker Mayfield44411.005.7
Rachaad White5122.40-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Emeka Egbuka6885028%4.3
Sterling Shepard4580017%6.2
Bucky Irving4433014%0.9
Mike Evans4933131%0.3
Rachaad White11203%-0.4
Ryan Miller01003%-1.2
Tez Johnson01003%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David741.000
Zyon McCollum900.000
Tykee Smith430.001
Jacob Parrish411.000
Yaya Diaby221.000
Antoine Winfield Jr.211.000
SirVocea Dennis210.001
Haason Reddick210.000
Josh Hayes110.000
Anthony Nelson200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -6.5
Closing total
43.5
NYJ moneyline
+275
TB moneyline
-345

Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 56 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
88°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
NYJ 7 days · TB 6 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Todd Bowles