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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 3
It turned at Q4 7:48, 1st and 10, on Drake Maye — 25.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:48 · 1st and 10
Drake Maye
Steelers
(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig) [51-N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38. 90-T.Watt to PIT 38 for no gain (71-M.Onwenu).
Pittsburgh Steelers 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 7:48, Steelers +25.7% win probability on one snap.
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 5 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.68 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig) [51-N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38. 90-T.Watt to PIT 38 for no gain (71-M.Onwenu).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Calvin Austin III's 17-yard touchdown catch with 2:20 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Calvin Austin III17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+721–145 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 46 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Patriots’s 71 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Patriots 4.
Patriots outgained Steelers 369-205 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 10.3% in week 2 against 25.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 2.7% in week 2 against 33.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-4.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 46 snaps
Patriots5.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 78%
Tendencies room →Steelers45.9%leaned — ran early · −9.2 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 37 early downs
Patriots62.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Steelers25.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Patriots27.7%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.6%.
Patriots100.0%leaned — went for it · +57.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers38.3%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Patriots33.3%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Steelers17.0%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Patriots12.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 57.0 points above their season mean of 43.0% and 1.7 times their own 33.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
28/37, 268 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
16/23, 139 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.2 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
3/3 for 38 yds, 0 TD
8% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Hunter Henry banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 29.0 | +8.2 | 81% | 79% | 31% | 32% | 8/11, 90 yd, 2 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/37, 268 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 45 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −10.4 | 80% | 75% | 27% | 0% | 18 car, 47 yd · 5/6, 34 yd |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | +3.2 | 72% | 75% | 23% | 62% | 3/5, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 12.2 | +5.0 | 89% | 92% | 18% | 30% | 3/4, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 11.7 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 139 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 1 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 9.6 | +2.1 | 26% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 16 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 10 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −2.4 | 46% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 11 car, 28 yd · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.5 | 62% | 47% | 11% | 10% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +1.5 | 53% | 47% | 8% | 6% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.4 | 83% | 83% | 14% | 7% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.1 | 76% | 66% | 8% | 14% | 2/3, 28 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −0.2 | 65% | 49% | 8% | 16% | 2/3, 28 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 4.6 | −3.9 | 36% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 4 car, 18 yd · 3/3, 38 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −4.8 | 39% | 43% | 14% | 13% | 2/5, 7 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 12% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.3 | 70% | 63% | 14% | 20% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 0.8 | −2.1 | 26% | 13% | 0% | — | 7 car, 28 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Patriots · 4th & 2 at PIT 16 · gained 16 · +4.10 EP · +23.9% win probability
148 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 92 yards from the NE 6 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Steelers6
Patriots0Steelers7Patriots0Steelers13Patriots0Steelers14Patriots0Steelers14Patriots6Steelers14Patriots7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers14Patriots13Steelers14Patriots14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers20Patriots14Steelers21Patriots14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/23 | 139 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 27% | −0.6 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 23% | −2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Payton Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 28/37 | 268 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_03_PIT_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 18% | +2.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 14% | +3.5 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −3.0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sawyer | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
| 45 |
| 6.4 |
| 0 |
| +2.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | −9.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 31% | +9.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 8% | −1.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +1.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14% | −3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Harold Landry III | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Schooler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
