2025 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 21, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

New England Patriots

PIT -1.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Steelers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 7:48, PIT +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:48PIT 14 — NE 14NE ball · 1st & 10NE 64%

(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig) [51-N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38. 90-T.Watt to PIT 38 for no gain (71-M.Onwenu).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:48PIT +26% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 39 for -6 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig) [51-N.Herbig], touched at PIT 37, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38. 90-T.Watt to PIT 38 for no gain (71-M.Onwenu).
Q3 · 13:17PIT +19% win prob(13:17) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (97-Ca.Heyward). FUMBLES (97-Ca.Heyward), touched at PIT 0, RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT -1. Touchback.
Q4 · 15:00NE +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:46PIT +15% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 14-R.Spillane [44-K.Chaisson] at PIT 48. 14-R.Spillane pushed ob at PIT 11 for 37 yards (4-D.Metcalf).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:29PIT Touchdown
(8:29) 14-K.Gainwell left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — NE 0
Q2 · 13:53PIT Touchdown
(13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — NE 0
Q2 · 9:04NE Touchdown
(9:04) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — NE 7
Q4 · 15:00NE Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — NE 14
Q4 · 2:20PIT Touchdown
(2:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 21 — NE 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Patriots
Offensive plays	46	71
Total yards	205	369 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	50% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	52%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.68
Third downs	4/9	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	5

Patriots outgained Steelers 369–205 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

28/37, 268 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

16/23, 139 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.2 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

18 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Drake MayeQB

7 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

8/11 for 90 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

3/3 for 38 yds, 0 TD

8% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 27	4	7	1:42	Fumble
2	PIT	PIT 46	9	48	4:53	Touchdown +7
3	NE	NE 28	8	13	3:13	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 10	13	70	6:23	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 23	11	61	4:48	Touchdown +7
6	PIT	PIT 34	5	5	1:41	Punt
7	NE	NE 6	17	94	7:13	Interception
8	PIT	PIT 20	1	0	0:07	End of half
9	PIT	PIT 35	4	0	1:24	Interception
10	NE	PIT 11	2	10	0:24	Fumble
11	PIT	PIT 20	4	8	1:48	Punt
12	NE	NE 46	3	11	1:16	Fumble
13	PIT	PIT 43	4	3	1:28	Punt
14	NE	NE 12	16	83	8:44	Touchdown +7
15	PIT	PIT 35	7	4	2:28	Punt
16	NE	NE 18	8	45	4:47	Fumble
17	PIT	PIT 38	10	67	5:25	Touchdown +7
18	NE	NE 26	9	45	1:13	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 29	2	0	1:03	End of game

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 94 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	16/23	139	2	1	0	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Warren	18	47	2.6	0	-2.7
Kenneth Gainwell	4	16	4.0	1	0.5
Aaron Rodgers	4	1	0.3	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Warren	5	6	34	0	27%	-0.6
Calvin Austin III	3	5	34	1	23%	-2.5
DK Metcalf	3	4	32	1	18%	2.6
Jonnu Smith	3	3	23	0	14%	3.5
Kenneth Gainwell	1	1	10	0	5%	0.7
Pat Freiermuth	1	3	6	0	14%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	6	4	0.0	0	2
Payton Wilson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	2	4	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	3	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	3	1.0	0	1
Chuck Clark	3	3	0.0	0	0
Brandin Echols	4	2	0.0	1	1
T.J. Watt	2	3	2.0	0	0
Jack Sawyer	3	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	28/37	268	2	1	5	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Drake Maye	7	45	6.4	2.2
TreVeyon Henderson	11	28	2.5	-0.5
Antonio Gibson	7	28	4.0	-5.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	18	4.5	-9.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	8	11	90	2	31%	9.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3	38	0	8%	2.9
Kayshon Boutte	2	3	28	0	8%	-1.7
Austin Hooper	2	3	28	0	8%	1.5
Mack Hollins	4	4	27	0	11%	1.7
Stefon Diggs	3	3	23	0	8%	0.8
TreVeyon Henderson	3	3	19	0	8%	0.3
Kyle Williams	1	1	8	0	3%	0.9
DeMario Douglas	2	5	7	0	14%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	8	6	1	1
Harold Landry III	2	6	0	0
Craig Woodson	2	2	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	1	0	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	2	1	0	0
Kyle Dugger	1	1	0	0
Carlton Davis III	2	0	0	0
Mike Onwenu	1	0	0	0
Jack Gibbens	1	0	0	0
Will Campbell	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1.5
Closing total: 44.5
PIT moneyline: -120
NE moneyline: +100

Steelers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: PIT 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Mike Vrabel