2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

BAL -2.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:27, BAL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:27BAL 7 — KC 20BAL ball · 3rd & 1KC 79%

(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at BAL 47. Penalty on BAL-77-D.Faalele, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:27BAL +11% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at BAL 47. Penalty on BAL-77-D.Faalele, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 3:01BAL +10% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q1 · 1:50BAL +9% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Chenal [32-N.Bolton] at KC 16. 54-L.Chenal to KC 16 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
Q2 · 4:03KC +8% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:41BAL Touchdown
(9:41) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 43-J.Hill for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 0
Q1 · 5:44KC Field goal
(5:44) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 3
Q2 · 10:03KC Field goal
(10:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 6
Q2 · 4:03KC Touchdown
(4:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 13
Q2 · 1:45KC Touchdown
(1:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 20
Q2 · 0:02BAL Field goal
(:02) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — KC 20
Q3 · 11:55KC Touchdown
(11:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 80-T.Thornton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — KC 27
Q3 · 7:26BAL Field goal
(7:26) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — KC 27
Q3 · 1:10KC Field goal
(1:10) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — KC 30
Q4 · 13:20KC Touchdown
(13:20) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 13 — KC 37
Q4 · 2:08BAL Touchdown
(2:08) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 20 — KC 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Chiefs
Offensive plays	53	68
Total yards	360	385 (edge)
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	45% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	75%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.41 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	3/10	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

25/37, 270 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/20, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.2 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

6 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

5/8 for 83 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

7/8 for 74 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 30	11	70	5:25	Touchdown +7
2	KC	KC 32	10	33	3:55	Field goal +3
3	BAL	BAL 26	7	32	3:56	Interception
4	KC	KC 16	14	79	6:44	Field goal +3
5	BAL	BAL 15	6	32	3:14	Punt
6	KC	KC 44	6	56	2:46	Touchdown +7
7	BAL	BAL 32	5	9	1:03	Turnover on downs
8	KC	BAL 40	7	40	1:16	Touchdown +7
9	BAL	BAL 35	4	9	0:21	Fumble
10	KC	BAL 47	7	10	0:54	Missed field goal
11	BAL	BAL 47	5	29	0:26	Field goal +3
12	KC	KC 35	8	65	3:09	Touchdown +7
13	BAL	BAL 30	9	56	4:29	Field goal +3
14	KC	KC 49	11	49	6:16	Field goal +3
15	BAL	BAL 16	5	3	1:45	Turnover on downs
16	KC	BAL 24	5	24	1:06	Touchdown +7
17	BAL	BAL 31	10	34	3:03	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 35	11	24	6:43	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 14	4	86	1:33	Touchdown +7
20	KC	KC 22	4	5	1:56	End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 86 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/20	147	1	1	3	-5.2
Cooper Rush	9/13	52	0	0	0	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justice Hill	3	76	25.3	1	6.3
Lamar Jackson	6	48	8.0	0	2.8
Derrick Henry	8	42	5.3	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	7	8	74	0	27%	4.3
Justice Hill	5	6	41	1	20%	2.4
Mark Andrews	7	8	30	0	27%	-4.2
Rashod Bateman	1	2	24	0	7%	0.8
Derrick Henry	2	3	16	0	10%	0.5
Tylan Wallace	1	2	14	0	7%	-0.1
DeAndre Hopkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Hamilton	3	5	0.0	0
Teddye Buchanan	3	4	0.0	0
Trenton Simpson	3	2	0.0	0
Mike Green	3	2	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	5	0	0.0	0
Keyon Martin	4	1	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	4	1	0.0	0
Jacob Hummel	2	3	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	2	0.0	1
Tavius Robinson	1	2	1.0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	25/37	270	4	0	1	16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Xavier Worthy	2	38	19.0	2.9
Isiah Pacheco	7	35	5.0	-0.3
Kareem Hunt	13	34	2.6	1.9
Brashard Smith	4	9	2.3	-2.4
Patrick Mahomes	4	5	1.3	-2.6
Gardner Minshew	2	-3	-1.5	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Worthy	5	8	83	0	23%	6.6
Travis Kelce	5	5	48	0	14%	3.2
Marquise Brown	3	5	38	1	14%	3.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	6	36	1	17%	1.3
Brashard Smith	3	4	27	0	11%	1.0
Isiah Pacheco	2	3	13	1	9%	1.2
Kareem Hunt	1	1	13	0	3%	1.7
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	11	1	6%	0.6
Noah Gray	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Drue Tranquill	4	3	0.0	0	0
Chamarri Conner	4	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	3	3	0.0	0	0
Trent McDuffie	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jaden Hicks	4	1	0.0	0	0
Leo Chenal	4	0	0.0	1	1
Christian Roland-Wallace	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nohl Williams	2	1	0.0	0	1
Bryan Cook	3	0	0.0	0	0
George Karlaftis	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 48.5
BAL moneyline: -148
KC moneyline: +124

Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 57 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: BAL 6 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid