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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q2 1:27, 3rd and 1, on Lamar Jackson — 10.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:27, Chiefs +10.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:27 · 3rd and 1
Lamar Jackson
Chiefs
(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at BAL 47. Penalty on BAL-77-D.Faalele, Offensive Holding, declined.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.41 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at BAL 47. Penalty on BAL-77-D.Faalele, Offensive Holding, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 4-yard touchdown catch with 4:03 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
JuJu Smith-Schuster4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–1311 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 53 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 68 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Chiefs 7.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 71.8%, sat 25.9 points above their season number of 45.9% — they passed early by 2.0 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens6.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +15.4 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 53 snaps
Chiefs4.5 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 82%
Tendencies room →Ravens71.8%off script — passed early · +25.9 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 39 early downs
Chiefs60.0%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Ravens10.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.2 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs17.5%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Ravens80.0%leaned — went for it · +45.1 vs their 34.9%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs80.0%leaned — went for it · +24.0 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 70%
Tendencies room →Ravens35.0%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs37.5%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens7.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs22.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
BAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.8%, 25.9 points above their season mean of 45.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
25/37, 270 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
16.2 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
14/20, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.2 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justice Hill banked 17.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 28.7 | +17.4 | 58% | 70% | 20% | 0% | 3 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 27.3 | −2.0 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 25/37, 270 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 5 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 17.1 | +0.5 | 59% | 70% | 23% | 55% | 2 car, 38 yd · 5/8, 83 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +2.7 | 87% | 95% | 27% | 40% | 7/8, 74 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.6 | −0.1 | 78% | 83% | 17% | 18% | 4/6, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 12.8 | +3.4 | 37% | 43% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 35 yd · 2/3, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +2.6 | 52% | 63% | 14% | 16% | 3/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −2.4 | 69% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 147 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 48 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −1.1 | 55% | 57% | 27% | 28% | 7/8, 30 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +2.6 | 66% | 85% | 14% | 6% | 5/5, 48 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +1.1 | 34% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −0.8 | 38% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 42 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB · Receiving Back | 6.6 | −2.3 | 26% | 23% | 11% | 0% | 4 car, 9 yd · 3/4, 27 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −2.0 | 44% | 38% | 3% | 2% | 13 car, 34 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.2 | 80% | 85% | 7% | 20% | 1/2, 24 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.7 | 40% | 40% | 7% | 14% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 2.1 | −0.7 | 29% | — | 0% | — | 9/13, 52 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 56% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 33% | 40% | 3% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen RoyalsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Gardner MinshewQB | -0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Chenal [32-N.Bolton] at KC 16. 54-L.Chenal to KC 16 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
Q1 1:50 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at KC 32 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −11.1% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 86 yards from the BAL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Chiefs0Ravens7Chiefs0Ravens7Chiefs3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens7Chiefs6Ravens7Chiefs12Ravens7Chiefs13Ravens7Chiefs19Ravens7Chiefs20Ravens10Chiefs20Ravens10Chiefs26Ravens10Chiefs27Ravens13Chiefs27Ravens13Chiefs30Ravens13Chiefs36Ravens13Chiefs37Ravens19Chiefs37Ravens20Chiefs37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/20 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −5.2 |
| Cooper Rush | 9/13 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill | 3 | 76 | 25.3 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 8 | 74 | 0 | 27% | +4.3 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Hummel |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/37 | 270 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +16.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_BAL_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 57 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +2.4 |
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 27% | −4.2 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7% | +0.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +0.5 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keyon Martin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Basil Okoye | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Brashard Smith | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 23% | +6.6 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 14% | +3.2 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 14% | +3.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 17% | +1.3 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 9% | +1.2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
