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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 13 at New England Patriots 42. Final.
Patriots -5.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 4
New England Patriots 42, Panthers 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:55, 4th and 8 — 17.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:55 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.
New England Patriots 42–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:55, Patriots +17.5% win probability on one snap.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mitchell EvansPanthersQ1 12:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to NE 23 for 16 yards (53-C.Elliss).
6.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ1 3:05(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
4.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.88 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 6 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Panthers152 of 159 plays carry both curves
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Swing +17.5 for PatriotsExpected points +6.70 for PatriotsThe model had Panthers 17 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:55CAR +18% win prob(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
1st · 12:19NE +6% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to NE 23 for 16 yards (53-C.Elliss).
1st · 3:05CAR +5% win prob(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
1st · 11:36NE +5% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to NE 7 for 16 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
1st · 4:19NE +5% win prob(4:19) 5-R.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NE 40 for 10 yards (51-J.Gibbens). CAR-62-C.Zavala was injured during the play.
1st · 1:38NE +4% win prob(1:38) 4-A.Gibson right end to CAR 29 for 21 yards (32-T.Wallace).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marcus Jones's 87-yard return touchdown with 5:55 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:56Tommy Tremble·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Youngfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, hit left upright+66–0
1st5:55Marcus Jones·87-yd return TD87-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+76–7
4th2:00Mitchell Evans·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+713–42
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryPatriots
Panthers3–4Patriots
326Total yards309
5.0Yards per play6.9
49%Success rate42%
36%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays8
19First downs15
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.88 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.39Patriots: +0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Panthers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.88Patriots: +0.88 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Panthers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Patriots’s 45 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's play-action rate, 40.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 32.0 points above their season number of 68.0% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 15.5-point weekly swing.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 3.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Patriots10.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 32.0 points above their season mean of 68.0% and 2.1 times their own 15.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Cade MaysC · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Tetairoa McMillanWR · Full-time94%65 snaps
87Brycen TremayneWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Full-time81%56 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
84Mitchell EvansTE · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational49%34 snaps
70Brady ChristensenT · Rotational43%30 snaps
5Rico DowdleRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
73Brandon WaltonG · Rotational33%23 snaps
85James MitchellTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
62Chandler ZavalaG · Rotational25%17 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Situational19%13 snaps
23Trevor EtienneRB · Situational16%11 snaps
81Dalevon CampbellWR · Situational13%9 snaps
83David MooreWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Nick SamacCJaden CrumedyDTPatrick Jones IIOLBD.J. WonnumOLBJa'Tavion SandersTEJimmy Horn Jr.WRXavier LegetteWR
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%49 snaps
77Ben BrownC · Every snap100%49 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%49 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Full-time88%43 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Full-time88%43 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Full-time88%43 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation76%37 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation69%34 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation65%32 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation63%31 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation57%28 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Rotational49%24 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Rotational31%15 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational29%14 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Situational22%11 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Situational18%9 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Situational16%8 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Situational16%8 snaps
52Marcus BryantT · Situational12%6 snaps
11Joshua DobbsQB · Situational12%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Eric GregoryDTJared WilsonGCaedan WallaceGElijah PonderOLBTommy DeVitoQBEfton Chism IIIWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Martin punts−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q1 5:55 · Panthers · 4th & 8 at NE 43 · gained nothing · -6.70 EP · −24.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 91 yards from the CAR 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
633
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1570%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1555%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.7671%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1131%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4411%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2420%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Panthers6Patriots0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Patriots 7
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 42
Panthers6Patriots6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Patriots 43
Panthers6Patriots7
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Patriots 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Panthers 7
2nd quarter51 plays
Panthers6Patriots13
Panthers6Patriots14
Touchdown2 plays
No good11 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Patriots 26
Panthers6Patriots20
Panthers6Patriots21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Panthers 5
Punt6 plays
Panthers6Patriots27
Panthers6Patriots28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 7
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter33 plays
Panthers6Patriots34
Panthers6Patriots35
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Panthers 31
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Patriots 33
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 41
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 1 to the Panthers 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 34
4th quarter35 plays
Panthers6Patriots41
Panthers6Patriots42
Touchdown4 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Patriots 41
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 49
Panthers12Patriots42
Panthers13Patriots42
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Patriots 1
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
