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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q1 5:55, 4th and 8 — 17.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 42–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:55, Patriots +17.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:55 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.88 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 6 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marcus Jones's 87-yard return touchdown with 5:55 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tommy Tremble7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, hit left upright+66–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.88 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Patriots’s 45 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Patriots 5.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's play-action rate, 40.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 32.0 points above their season number of 68.0% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 15.5-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.5 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-8.5 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 65 snaps
Patriots-4.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.6 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 45 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Panthers54.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 48 early downs
Patriots44.4%leaned — ran early · −9.8 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Panthers31.6%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots40.9%leaned — faked the run · +16.0 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Panthers100.0%off script — went for it · +32.0 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots25.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Panthers18.2%leaned — sat back · −10.1 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Patriots18.4%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Panthers4.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Patriots10.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 32.0 points above their season mean of 68.0% and 2.1 times their own 15.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
14/17, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
19.3 expected points added · +20.4% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
18/30, 150 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.9 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD
25% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Hunter Henry banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 23.2 | +6.2 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 14/17, 203 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +2.0 | 63% | 82% | 41% | 62% | 6/7, 101 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.2 | +1.5 | 75% | 71% | 25% | 21% | 5/8, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Receiving Back | 12.6 | +5.6 | 31% | 23% | 12% | 0% | 7 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +6.8 | 76% | 77% | 12% | 8% | 2/2, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.3 | +4.0 | 54% | 53% | 13% | 2% | 3/4, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | +0.5 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 150 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.2 | −2.3 | 94% | 97% | 25% | 58% | 4/8, 62 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | +1.3 | 51% | 58% | 9% | 0% | 10 car, 49 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 8.7 | +1.2 | 18% | 14% | 0% | — | 6 car, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +3.6 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +0.7 | 81% | 89% | 13% | 16% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB | 6.3 | +2.4 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 5/6, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 5.1 | −1.5 | 57% | 64% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 38 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 4.0 | −2.1 | 39% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 32 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| James MitchellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.7 | 25% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +2.0 | 65% | 55% | 6% | 0% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 3.3 | −3.9 | 16% | 8% | 0% | — | 7 car, 33 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.5 | 49% | 55% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.0 | 69% | 73% | 18% | 37% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Joshua DobbsQB | -0.2 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.2 | −0.9 | 29% | 27% | 0% | — | 1 car, -2 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q1 5:55 · Panthers · 4th & 8 at NE 43 · gained nothing · -6.70 EP · −24.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 91 yards from the CAR 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers6
Patriots0Panthers6Patriots6Panthers6Patriots7Panthers6Patriots13Panthers6Patriots14Panthers6Patriots20Panthers6Patriots21Panthers6Patriots27Panthers6Patriots28Panthers6Patriots34Panthers6Patriots35Panthers6Patriots41Panthers6Patriots42Panthers12Patriots42Panthers13Patriots42Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/30 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −8.9 |
| Andy Dalton | 5/6 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Trevor Etienne | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 25% | −0.6 |
| Tommy Tremble | 5 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Scott |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/17 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +19.3 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_CAR_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 55 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.7 |
| David Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| 25% |
| +1.1 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| James Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 | −2.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 41% | +9.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 12% | +5.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 6% | +1.7 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 18% | −1.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12% | +2.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6% | +2.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dell Pettus | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brenden Schooler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
