2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Carolina Panthers

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -5.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

New England Patriots 42–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:55, CAR +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:55CAR 6 — NE 6CAR ball · 4th & 8CAR 50%

(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:55CAR +18% win prob(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q1 · 12:19NE +6% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to NE 23 for 16 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q1 · 3:05CAR +5% win prob(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
Q1 · 11:36NE +5% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to NE 7 for 16 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:56CAR Touchdown
(10:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 0
Q1 · 5:55NE Touchdown
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 7
Q2 · 15:00NE Touchdown
(15:00) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 14
Q2 · 5:53NE Touchdown
(5:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 21
Q2 · 2:00NE Touchdown
(2:00) 59-V.Lowe reported in as eligible. 4-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-92-C.Jackson has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 28
Q3 · 10:27NE Touchdown
(10:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 35
Q4 · 14:16NE Touchdown
(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NE 42
Q4 · 2:00CAR Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 13 — NE 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Patriots
Offensive plays	65	45
Total yards	326 (edge)	309
Yards per play	5.0	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.39 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	58%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.88 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	3/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

14/17, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.3 expected points added · +20.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

18/30, 150 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.9 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

10 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

9 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Stefon DiggsWR

6/7 for 101 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

4/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 24	9	72	4:09	Touchdown +6
2	NE	NE 35	5	7	1:35	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 23	7	29	3:42	Defensive touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 41	8	18	2:38	Punt
5	NE	NE 20	7	80	3:02	Touchdown +7
6	CAR	CAR 33	10	25	4:59	Missed field goal
7	NE	NE 45	9	60	4:07	Touchdown +7
8	CAR	CAR 25	5	2	1:46	Punt
9	NE	CAR 14	5	14	2:05	Touchdown +7
10	CAR	CAR 32	8	14	1:30	Punt
11	NE	NE 2	4	5	0:25	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 47	0	0	0:02	End of half
13	NE	NE 22	10	88	4:43	Touchdown +7
14	CAR	CAR 32	8	33	3:49	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 35	4	6	2:07	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 1	4	8	1:58	Punt
17	NE	CAR 41	8	41	3:10	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 35	7	34	3:56	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 41	4	8	1:36	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 9	14	91	6:45	Touchdown +7
21	NE	NE 31	4	0	1:56	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	18/30	150	1	0	1	-8.9
Andy Dalton	5/6	58	1	0	0	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	10	49	4.9	1.6
Trevor Etienne	7	33	4.7	-3.1
Rico Dowdle	9	32	3.6	-2.7
David Moore	1	12	12.0	1.0
Bryce Young	1	3	3.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	4	8	62	0	25%	-0.6
Tommy Tremble	5	8	42	1	25%	1.1
Brycen Tremayne	3	4	36	0	13%	2.1
Mitchell Evans	3	4	23	1	13%	4.4
Chuba Hubbard	3	3	20	0	9%	0.6
James Mitchell	2	2	17	0	6%	1.4
Hunter Renfrow	2	2	10	0	6%	1.0
Rico Dowdle	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
A'Shawn Robinson	1	5	0.0	0
Nick Scott	3	2	0.0	0
Trevin Wallace	4	1	0.0	1
Tershawn Wharton	2	3	1.0	0
Derrick Brown	1	3	0.0	0
Mike Jackson	3	1	0.0	1
Christian Rozeboom	1	3	0.0	0
Nic Scourton	2	1	0.0	0
Chau Smith-Wade	2	0	0.0	0
Akayleb Evans	2	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	14/17	203	2	0	1	19.3
Joshua Dobbs	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	38	4.2	0	-2.4
TreVeyon Henderson	7	32	4.6	1	-0.1
Antonio Gibson	6	27	4.5	1	1.3
Drake Maye	3	11	3.7	1	1.0
Joshua Dobbs	3	-2	-0.7	0	0.0
Kyle Williams	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	7	101	0	41%	9.9
Hunter Henry	2	2	39	1	12%	5.6
Austin Hooper	1	1	24	0	6%	1.7
Kayshon Boutte	1	3	18	0	18%	-1.2
TreVeyon Henderson	2	2	14	0	12%	2.7
Mack Hollins	1	1	4	1	6%	2.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	3	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jack Gibbens	7	4	0
Robert Spillane	4	6	0
Christian Elliss	3	6	0
Marcus Jones	3	2	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	0	0
Dell Pettus	2	2	0
Craig Woodson	3	1	1
Christian Gonzalez	3	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	1	2	0
Brenden Schooler	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -5.5
Closing total: 42.5
CAR moneyline: +215
NE moneyline: -265

Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 55 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CAR 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Mike Vrabel