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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Bears152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing −45.7 for RaidersExpected points −1.51 for RaidersThe model had Bears 5 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:38CHI +46% win prob(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
2nd · 4:15LV +18% win prob(4:15) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:27CHI +16% win prob(12:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 22, and recovers at LV 33.
4th · 2:42LV +15% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze to LV 13 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn).
4th · 1:45LV +14% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to LV 2 for 5 yards (51-M.Koonce; 11-J.Chinn).
1st · 4:24CHI +13% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 98-M.Crosby at LV 15. 98-M.Crosby pushed ob at LV 34 for 19 yards (2-D.Moore).
1st · 11:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D'Andre Swift's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 1:39 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:58Cairo Santos·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–0
4th11:43Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+319–21
4th6:48Daniel Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+319–24
4th1:39D'Andre Swift·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+625–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryRaiders
Bears2–7Raiders
272Total yards357
4.3Yards per play7.0
42%Success rate53%
41%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays9
16First downs17
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers4
The read
Raiders ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.34Raiders: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Bears: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.09Raiders: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Raiders’s 51 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Raiders 4.
NoteRaiders outgained Bears 357-272 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 20.0% in week 3 against 40.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Raiders4.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 40.9%, 15.3 points above their season mean of 25.6% and 1.8 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Daniel Carlson−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:38 · Raiders · 4th & 3 at CHI 36 · gained nothing · -1.51 EP · −38.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 80 yards from the LV 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
47%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0647%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1171%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.3136%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4925%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1571%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 46
Bears3Raiders0
Field goal5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 9
Bears3Raiders6
Bears3Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Bears 8
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Raiders 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 23
Bears6Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 14
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bears6Raiders13
Bears6Raiders14
Touchdown3 plays
Bears9Raiders14
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Raiders 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 31
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears15Raiders14
Bears16Raiders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 22
Bears16Raiders20
Bears16Raiders21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Bears 9
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 41
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 1 to the Raiders 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bears19Raiders21
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 14
Bears19Raiders24
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Bears 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears25Raiders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Raiders 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Bears 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -1.5
Closing total
47.5
Bears moneyline
+105
Raiders moneyline
-125
Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 49 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bears 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Pete Carroll
CHI +13% win prob
(11:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at CHI 41. 31-K.Byard to LV 24 for 35 yards (58-J.Powers-Johnson).
3rd · 14:54CHI +12% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at LV 43. 29-T.Stevenson to LV 40 for 3 yards (16-J.Meyers; 80-I.Thomas). CHI-29-T.Stevenson was injured during the play.
