For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

25

Las Vegas Raiders

24

LV -1.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓Dome

Chicago Bears 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, CHI +46% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 0:38CHI 25 — LV 24LV ball · 4th & 3LV 55%

(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:38CHI +46% win prob(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
  2. Q2 · 4:15LV +18% win prob(4:15) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 12:27CHI +16% win prob(12:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 22, and recovers at LV 33.
  4. Q4 · 2:42LV +15% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze to LV 13 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:58CHI Field goal

    (9:58) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — LV 0
  2. Q1 · 0:13LV Touchdown

    (:13) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — LV 7
  3. Q2 · 4:26CHI Field goal

    (4:26) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — LV 7
  4. Q2 · 4:15LV Touchdown

    (4:15) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — LV 14
  5. Q2 · 0:58CHI Field goal

    (:58) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 9 — LV 14
  6. Q3 · 11:44CHI Touchdown

    (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — LV 14
  7. Q3 · 5:29LV Touchdown

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — LV 21
  8. Q4 · 11:43CHI Field goal

    (11:43) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 19 — LV 21
  9. Q4 · 6:48LV Field goal

    (6:48) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: CHI 19 — LV 24
  10. Q4 · 1:39CHI Touchdown

    (1:39) 4-D.Swift left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 25 — LV 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsRaiders
Offensive plays6451
Total yards272357 (edge)
Yards per play4.37.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.12 (edge)-0.20
Success rate42%53% (edge)
Dropback rate66%43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.29-0.09 (edge)
Third downs7/17 (edge)2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)49 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1617 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)4

Raiders outgained Bears 357–272 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

22/37, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

14/21, 117 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

21 att, 138 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Rome OdunzeWR

4/8 for 69 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

3/9 for 46 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 29571:46Punt
2LVLV 255212:26Interception
3CHILV 244-40:55Field goal +3
4LVLV 26682:39Fumble
5CHILV 20672:58Interception
6LVLV 348604:08Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 3110344:46Punt
8LVLV 20331:34Interception
9CHILV 24894:26Field goal +3
10LVLV 363640:19Touchdown +7
11CHICHI 2910373:10Field goal +3
12LVLV 155290:53End of half
13LVLV 27200:18Interception
14CHILV 408603:04Touchdown +7
15LVLV 2012806:15Touchdown +7
16CHICHI 32591:52Punt
17LVLV 1472:24Punt
18CHILV 498404:29Field goal +3
19LVLV 2610634:53Field goal +3
20CHICHI 3113735:11Touchdown +6
21LVLV 427221:01Missed field goal
22CHICHI 44100:33End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams22/37212111-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift14382.71-0.9
Kyle Monangai4184.50-0.1
Caleb Williams8131.60-5.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rome Odunze4869122%0.0
Cole Kmet3946025%-1.3
Olamide Zaccheaus5641017%4.3
DJ Moore4538014%0.9
D'Andre Swift4622017%0.1
Luther Burden III22-406%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds650.000
Kevin Byard520.022
Tyrique Stevenson420.012
Noah Sewell140.000
Jaquan Brisker130.000
Nick McCloud220.000
Daniel Hardy120.000
Nahshon Wright300.000
Shemar Turner200.000
Andrew Billings200.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith14/21117230-9.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty211386.61-1.7
Raheem Mostert46215.502.1
Geno Smith4317.800.1
Tre Tucker294.50-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers5646030%1.8
Jakobi Meyers4730035%-15.0
Ashton Jeanty2217210%4.1
Tre Tucker2213010%0.8
Raheem Mostert111105%-0.0
Dont'e Thornton Jr.020010%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White810.001
Jeremy Chinn340.000
Kyu Blu Kelly420.000
Maxx Crosby500.013
Germaine Pratt320.000
Jamal Adams400.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao130.000
Malcolm Koonce210.000
Adam Butler110.000
Jonah Laulu110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -1.5
Closing total
47.5
CHI moneyline
+105
LV moneyline
-125

Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 49 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
CHI 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Pete Carroll