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DYNATYZE
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Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Bengals161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.6 for BroncosExpected points +2.61 for BroncosThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:22DEN +7% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:33DEN +6% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to DEN 31 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss).
1st · 3:05DEN +5% win prob(3:05) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at CIN 23 for 26 yards (44-D.Knight).
1st · 11:52DEN +4% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 82-M.Tinsley to DEN 22 for 9 yards (29-J.McMillian; 49-A.Singleton).
2nd · 9:24DEN +4% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to CIN 16 for 22 yards (44-D.Knight). CIN-44-D.Knight was injured during the play.
1st · 6:05DEN +4% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Chase. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at CIN 15 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Bo Nix's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 0:22 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:11Evan McPherson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+33–0
1st0:22Bo Nix·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
2nd0:13Courtland Sutton·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+73–21
4th5:02RJ Harvey·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+73–28
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBroncos
Bengals1–8Broncos
160Total yards515
3.8Yards per play6.7
36%Success rate51%
18%Third-down rate62%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
1Explosive plays10
6First downs28
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Bengals: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.22Broncos: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Bengals: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.35Broncos: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.05Broncos: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 42 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Broncos’s 77 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's blitz rate sent, 6.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
CIN's play-action rate turned over: 25.8% in week 3 against 10.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.5 pts in week 3 against +2.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos17.2%
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteDEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.9%, 23.2 points below their season mean of 30.1% and 2.3 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Browning pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to DEN 31 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q1 12:33 · Bengals · 3rd & 6 at 50 · gained 19 · +2.58 EP · +8.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2267%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2571%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3946%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.290%
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.5280%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Bengals3Broncos0
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Broncos 8
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 38
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 45
Bengals3Broncos6
Bengals3Broncos7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Bengals 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 49
Bengals3Broncos13
Bengals3Broncos14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Bengals 16
Punt5 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bengals 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 27
Bengals3Broncos20
Bengals3Broncos21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Bengals 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 44
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 38
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 45
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Broncos 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 33
4th quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 28
Bengals3Broncos27
Bengals3Broncos28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Bengals 12
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
