2025 Week 4 · Mon, Sep 29, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Cincinnati Bengals

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -7.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Broncos closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Denver Broncos 28–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:22, DEN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:22CIN 3 — DEN 6DEN ball · 3rd & 5DEN 75%

(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:22DEN +7% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:33DEN +6% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to DEN 31 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q1 · 3:05DEN +5% win prob(3:05) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at CIN 23 for 26 yards (44-D.Knight).
Q1 · 11:52DEN +4% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 82-M.Tinsley to DEN 22 for 9 yards (29-J.McMillian; 49-A.Singleton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:11CIN Field goal
(9:11) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — DEN 0
Q1 · 0:22DEN Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — DEN 7
Q2 · 8:52DEN Touchdown
(8:52) 19-M.Mims left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — DEN 14
Q2 · 0:13DEN Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — DEN 21
Q4 · 5:02DEN Touchdown
(5:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — DEN 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Broncos
Offensive plays	42	77
Total yards	160	515 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.26	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	36%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	6	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

29/42, 326 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.3 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

14/25, 125 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.4 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

16 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

14 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/6 for 81 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Marvin Mims Jr.WR

6/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 30	13	57	5:52	Field goal +3
2	DEN	DEN 30	5	8	2:20	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 10	5	13	2:24	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 36	10	64	4:07	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 35	7	24	3:25	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 20	9	80	3:04	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 14	5	0	0:37	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 30	13	73	6:13	Interception
9	CIN	CIN 20	4	1	0:49	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 20	10	80	1:01	Touchdown +7
11	CIN	CIN 35	2	0	0:08	End of half
12	DEN	DEN 30	7	14	2:25	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 30	4	8	1:36	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 15	8	45	4:39	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 20	7	39	3:27	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 7	10	52	5:06	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 16	5	6	1:38	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 24	11	76	6:11	Touchdown +7
19	CIN	CIN 35	5	12	2:06	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 19	7	23	2:52	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Browning	14/25	125	0	0	3	-10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	10	40	4.0	-0.9
Andrei Iosivas	1	5	5.0	0.0
Jake Browning	3	4	1.3	0.6
Samaje Perine	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	3	6	32	27%	-1.9
Chase Brown	3	3	31	14%	1.2
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	23	36%	-4.0
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	22	5%	1.5
Mitchell Tinsley	1	2	9	9%	0.2
Mike Gesicki	1	1	8	5%	0.6
Samaje Perine	0	1	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Demetrius Knight Jr.	6	4	1	1
Geno Stone	4	6	0	0
Daxton Hill	5	4	0	1
Jordan Battle	4	5	0	0
B.J. Hill	4	1	0	0
Logan Wilson	2	3	0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	3	1	0	0
Josh Newton	3	1	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	2	0	0
Kris Jenkins	1	3	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	29/42	326	2	1	0	13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	16	101	6.3	0	3.2
RJ Harvey	14	58	4.1	0	-3.0
Marvin Mims Jr.	1	16	16.0	1	2.3
Bo Nix	6	7	1.2	1	1.4
Adam Prentice	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	5	6	81	1	14%	10.7
Marvin Mims Jr.	6	6	69	0	14%	2.7
Troy Franklin	4	8	55	0	19%	-2.1
RJ Harvey	4	5	40	1	12%	4.7
Adam Trautman	2	3	32	0	7%	1.3
Evan Engram	4	7	29	0	17%	-2.5
Tyler Badie	1	2	11	0	5%	0.3
Nate Adkins	2	3	5	0	7%	-0.5
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.4
Pat Bryant	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	6	5	0.0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	1	3	0.0	0
Jahdae Barron	2	1	0.0	0
Justin Strnad	1	2	0.0	0
Nik Bonitto	2	1	1.5	0
Brandon Jones	1	2	0.0	1
Jonathon Cooper	1	1	0.5	1
Riley Moss	2	0	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	1	1.0	0
Nate Adkins	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -7.5
Closing total: 44.5
CIN moneyline: +360
DEN moneyline: -470

Broncos closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Alex Moore
Rest: CIN 8 days · DEN 8 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Sean Payton