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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q2 4:36, 1st and 10, on D.J. Reed — 9.9 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:36 · 1st and 10
D.J. Reed
Lions
(4:36) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 4-D.Reed [55-D.Barnes] at CLE 39. 4-D.Reed pushed ob at CLE 5 for 34 yards (72-K.Leveston). DET-31-K.Joseph was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Detroit Lions 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:36, Lions +9.9% win probability on one snap.
9.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 4 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — -0.04 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 14 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(4:36) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 4-D.Reed [55-D.Barnes] at CLE 39. 4-D.Reed pushed ob at CLE 5 for 34 yards (72-K.Leveston). DET-31-K.Joseph was injured during the play. The Replay
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Bates's 48-yard field goal with 14:20 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Jake Bates48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+37–108 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Lions’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Lions 3.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-7.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 64 snaps
Lions-11.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 88%
Tendencies room →Browns53.1%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 49 early downs
Lions38.5%leaned — ran early · −15.2 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Browns28.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Lions14.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.1 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.2%.
Lions25.0%leaned — took the kick · −40.6 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−1.97× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Browns18.5%leaned — sat back · −10.6 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Lions44.7%leaned — sent pressure · +12.9 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 41%
Tendencies room →Browns18.5%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Lions26.3%leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
DET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 40.6 points below their season mean of 65.6% and 2.0 times their own 20.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
16/34, 184 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-19.9 expected points added · -15.2% completion over expected
Passing · DET
16/27, 168 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.0 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/7 for 70 yds, 2 TD
28% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +10.9 | 90% | 96% | 28% | 12% | 7/7, 70 yd, 2 TD |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.5 | −0.9 | 58% | 39% | 12% | 0% | 21 car, 82 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 33 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 17.7 | +5.1 | 62% | 63% | 8% | 0% | 15 car, 91 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −1.5 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 168 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +3.3 | 55% | 67% | 12% | 5% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | −0.4 | 55% | 71% | 18% | 24% | 3/6, 58 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.8 | −6.2 | 82% | 89% | 26% | 43% | 3/9, 48 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +0.5 | 93% | 96% | 16% | 13% | 3/4, 39 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.7 | −9.9 | 85% | 100% | 32% | 69% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/8, 40 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −3.7 | 85% | 74% | 18% | 20% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/6, 24 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.3 | 84% | 87% | 9% | 1% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.8 | 22% | 26% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 1.3 | −1.7 | 27% | 39% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 1.3 | −18.7 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 16/34, 184 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, -1 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 1.2 | −7.7 | 33% | 37% | 4% | 1% | 9 car, 12 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 1.1 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dillon GabrielQB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 18% | 18% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dylan SampsonRB | -0.2 | −2.1 | 13% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, -2 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle AllenQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:36) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 4-D.Reed [55-D.Barnes] at CLE 39. 4-D.Reed pushed ob at CLE 5 for 34 yards (72-K.Leveston). DET-31-K.Joseph was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 4:36 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 30 · gained nothing · -7.40 EP · −17.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 88 yards from the CLE 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Lions0Browns7Lions0Browns7Lions6Browns7Lions7Browns7Lions10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Browns7Lions16Browns7Lions17Browns7Lions20Browns10Lions20Browns10Lions26Browns10Lions27Browns10Lions33Browns10Lions34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/34 | 184 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −19.9 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Joe Flacco |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Bond | 3 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 18% | +3.3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 26% | −9.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Schwesinger | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/27 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_CLE_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -10 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| -1 |
| -0.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 18% | −1.7 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −1.2 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −1.9 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tre Avery | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
| 91 |
| 6.1 |
| 1 |
| +0.9 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Jacob Saylors | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 7 | 70 | 2 | 28% | +8.8 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 32% | −5.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +1.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −0.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrion Arnold | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Brian Branch | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Grant Stuard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DJ Reader | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
