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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Packers194 of 211 plays carry both curves
(:01) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Swing +42.3 for CowboysExpected points −0.23 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 210
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:01GB +42% win prob(:01) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Overtime · 4:42GB +38% win prob(4:42) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
4th · 0:50DAL +33% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [1-M.Parsons].
4th · 1:49DAL +23% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 7:57DAL +23% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at GB 42 for 22 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Overtime · 6:43DAL +21% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 1-J.Tolbert ran ob at GB 5 for 34 yards [96-C.Wooden].
Overtime · 3:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Neither side got further than 13 clear, and 14 scores later it was still level.
Lead
1st10:06Romeo Doubs·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+77–0
2nd10:39Romeo Doubs·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+613–0
4th1:49Romeo Doubs·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+734–30
4th0:50George Pickens·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+734–37
4th0:04Brandon McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+337–37
Overtime4:42Brandon Aubrey·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+337–40
Overtime0:01Brandon McManus·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+340–40
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryCowboys
Packers5–3Cowboys
490Total yards436
6.3Yards per play6.5
55%Success rate55%
71%Third-down rate36%
5Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays7
27First downs25
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Packers: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.36Cowboys: +0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Packers: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.55Cowboys: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Packers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 78 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Cowboys 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −4.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys10.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 19.6 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 1.0 times their own 19.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
75Sean RhyanG · Every snap100%83 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%83 snaps
70Darian KinnardT · Every snap100%83 snaps
77Jordan MorganG · Every snap100%83 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsC · Every snap100%83 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time95%79 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time90%75 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Heavy rotation77%64 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation65%54 snaps
0Matthew GoldenWR · Heavy rotation59%49 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational30%25 snaps
23Emanuel WilsonRB · Rotational30%25 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Situational23%19 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Situational12%10 snaps
83Savion WilliamsWR · Situational12%10 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Kamal HaddenCBWarren BrinsonDTAaron BanksGAnthony BeltonTZach TomT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Lecitus SmithGMalik WillisQB
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
67Brock HoffmanC · Every snap100%69 snaps
66TJ BassG · Every snap100%69 snaps
73Tyler SmithG · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Full-time94%65 snaps
3George PickensWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
60Tyler GuytonT · Full-time81%56 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Full-time80%55 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeFB · Rotational25%17 snaps
71Nathan ThomasT · Rotational25%17 snaps
19Ryan FlournoyWR · Situational23%16 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Situational22%15 snaps
24Miles SandersRB · Situational10%7 snaps
75Hakeem AdenijiT · Situational1%1 snap
16Jalen CropperWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jay ToiaDTTyler BookerGDamone ClarkOLBJaydon BlueRBAjani CorneliusTCeeDee LambWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Brandon McManus−42% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
OT 0:01 · Packers · 4th & 14 at DAL 16 · gained nothing · +0.23 EP · −42.3% win probability
192 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 211 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 205. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 95 yards from the DAL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
211 of 211 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
211
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
49%
Yards
925
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.4764%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.4468%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.0041%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1964%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5250%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
211 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
211 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Packers6Cowboys0
Packers7Cowboys0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 34
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Cowboys 49
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Cowboys 43
2nd quarter49 plays
Packers13Cowboys0
Packers13Cowboys2
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 16
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Cowboys 45
Packers13Cowboys8
Packers13Cowboys9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Packers13Cowboys15
Packers13Cowboys16
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 43
Packers19Cowboys16
Packers20Cowboys16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Cowboys 1
Packers20Cowboys22
Packers20Cowboys23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Packers 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers26Cowboys23
Packers27Cowboys23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Cowboys 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Packers27Cowboys29
Packers27Cowboys30
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Packers33Cowboys30
Packers34Cowboys30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Cowboys 15
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Packers34Cowboys36
Packers34Cowboys37
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Packers 28
Packers37Cowboys37
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Cowboys 35
Overtime30 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Packers37Cowboys40
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Packers 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers40Cowboys40
Field goal17 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Cowboys 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
