For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Los Angeles Rams 27. Final.
Rams -3.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 4
Los Angeles Rams 27, Colts 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:44, 1st and 10, on Tutu Atwell — 26.7 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:44 · 1st and 10
Tutu Atwell
Rams
(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:44, Rams +26.7% win probability on one snap.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren WilliamsColtsQ4 11:29(11:29) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 22 for -5 yards (33-M.Hilton). FUMBLES (33-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by IND-95-A.Adebawore at LA 17.
19.1pts
Puka NacuaRamsQ4 3:24(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Colts168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
Swing +26.7 for RamsExpected points +6.51 for RamsThe model had Colts 3 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:44LA +27% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
4th · 3:24LA +21% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:29IND +19% win prob(11:29) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 22 for -5 yards (33-M.Hilton). FUMBLES (33-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by IND-95-A.Adebawore at LA 17.
2nd · 0:11LA +16% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:23LA +15% win prob(2:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
4th · 5:53LA +14% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to IND 25 for 25 yards (0-C.Bynum; 33-M.Hilton).
4th · 2:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tutu Atwell's 88-yard touchdown catch with 1:44 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:36Joshua Karty·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+30–3
1st5:00Spencer Shrader·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–3
2nd5:24Joshua Karty·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+310–6
2nd0:11Davante Adams·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–13
4th11:38Michael Pittman·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+717–13
4th9:02Spencer Shrader·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+320–13
4th3:24Puka Nacua·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–20
4th1:44Tutu Atwell·88-yd TD catch88-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+720–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryRams
Colts2–6Rams
334Total yards464
6.1Yards per play6.9
45%Success rate54%
42%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays8
16First downs22
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.08Rams: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.33Rams: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.39Rams: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Rams’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's play-action rate, 15.9%, sat 19.5 points below their season number of 35.4% — they dropped back clean by 2.0 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Rams22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 15.9%, 19.5 points below their season mean of 35.4% and 2.0 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%61 snaps
68Dalton TuckerG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%61 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Every snap100%61 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time93%57 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Full-time89%54 snaps
84Tyler WarrenTE · Full-time89%54 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Full-time87%53 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation62%38 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational20%12 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Situational16%10 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational7%4 snaps
21DJ GiddensRB · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Kenny Moore IICBEric JohnsonDTMatt GoncalvesGRiley LeonardQBLuke TenutaTWill MalloryTEAlec PierceWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
Q4 1:44 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 12 · gained 88 · +6.51 EP · +29.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 96 yards from the LA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
48%
Yards
795
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1470%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2264%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0678%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4614%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 42
Colts0Rams3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Colts 23
Colts3Rams3
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Rams 23
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Rams 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Colts9Rams3
Colts10Rams3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 2
Colts10Rams6
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Colts 13
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts10Rams12
Colts10Rams13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Colts 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 35 to midfield
Drive ended3 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 24
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 40
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 20
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 34
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 26
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 39
4th quarter55 plays
Colts16Rams13
Colts17Rams13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Rams 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts20Rams13
Field goal5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts20Rams19
Colts20Rams20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Colts 9
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Rams 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts20Rams26
Colts20Rams27
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Colts 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3.5
Closing total
49.5
Colts moneyline
+154
Rams moneyline
-185
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 47 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Colts 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Sean McVay
LA +11% win prob
(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs. PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at IND 44 - No Play.
2nd · 12:23LA +11% win prob(12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
