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2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

20

Los Angeles RamsWinner

27

LA -3.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:44, LA +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 1:44IND 20 — LA 26LA ball · 1st & 10LA 64%

(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:44LA +27% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
  2. Q4 · 3:24LA +21% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 11:29IND +19% win prob(11:29) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 22 for -5 yards (33-M.Hilton). FUMBLES (33-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by IND-95-A.Adebawore at LA 17.
  4. Q2 · 0:11LA +16% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:36LA Field goal

    (7:36) 16-J.Karty 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: IND 0 — LA 3
  2. Q1 · 5:00IND Field goal

    (5:00) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — LA 3
  3. Q2 · 12:23IND Touchdown

    (12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — LA 3
  4. Q2 · 5:24LA Field goal

    (5:24) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — LA 6
  5. Q2 · 0:11LA Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — LA 13
  6. Q4 · 11:38IND Touchdown

    (11:38) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — LA 13
  7. Q4 · 9:02IND Field goal

    (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — LA 13
  8. Q4 · 3:24LA Touchdown

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — LA 20
  9. Q4 · 1:44LA Touchdown

    (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — LA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsRams
Offensive plays5567
Total yards334464 (edge)
Yards per play6.16.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.090.08 (edge)
Success rate45%54% (edge)
Dropback rate64%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.07 (edge)-0.39
Third downs5/12 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1622 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers21 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

29/41, 375 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

24/33, 262 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

4.1 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

17 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

13/15 for 170 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Adonai MitchellWR

3/4 for 96 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · -4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 265162:13Interception
2LALA 2011625:15Field goal +3
3INDIND 486382:37Field goal +3
4LALA 267192:31Turnover on downs
5INDLA 4510455:07Touchdown +7
6LALA 2412676:56Field goal +3
7INDIND 308203:07Punt
8LALA 414962:07Touchdown +7
9INDIND 35200:07End of half
10LALA 356152:27Punt
11INDIND 183811:01Turnover on downs
12LALA 205202:03Punt
13INDIND 19411:39Punt
14LALA 274-21:32Punt
15INDIND 234-21:38Punt
16LALA 27481:59Punt
17INDIND 1012906:07Touchdown +7
18LALA 272-100:12Fumble
19INDLA 17472:24Field goal +3
20LALA 1713905:38Touchdown +7
21INDIND 208171:36Punt
22LALA 122880:11Touchdown +7
23INDIND 114210:40Interception
24LALA 444110:53End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 96 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones24/332621224.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor17764.50-3.8
Ashton Dulin177.000.5
Tyler Warren231.511.8
Daniel Jones1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adonai Mitchell3496013%-4.0
Tyler Warren5670019%4.8
Michael Pittman51041131%-2.2
Josh Downs4524016%2.0
Jonathan Taylor5520016%-1.6
Ashton Dulin111103%1.8
Tyler Goodson11003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross580.500
DeForest Buckner440.000
Zaire Franklin160.001
Camryn Bynum430.000
Xavien Howard510.000
Mekhi Blackmon421.000
Joe Bachie230.000
Laiatu Latu311.001
Grover Stewart130.000
Mike Hilton210.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford29/4137530314.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams13775.90-2.4
Blake Corum9212.30-2.9
Matthew Stafford441.00-6.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua1315170138%13.5
Tutu Atwell128815%4.9
Davante Adams4656115%5.4
Tyler Higbee2525013%-2.6
Kyren Williams3417010%-0.2
Colby Parkinson221705%0.9
Jordan Whittington11703%0.4
Davis Allen11003%-0.9
Blake Corum24-5010%-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kam Curl360.023
Quentin Lake540.000
Omar Speights340.000
Nate Landman330.001
Jared Verse411.000
Jaylen McCollough310.000
Kamren Kinchens210.001
Byron Young211.000
Darious Williams110.000
Emmanuel Forbes110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -3.5
Closing total
49.5
IND moneyline
+154
LA moneyline
-185

Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 47 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
IND 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Sean McVay