2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Levi's Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 26–21. Biggest swing: Q4 2:52, JAX +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:52JAX 26 — SF 21SF ball · 1st & 10JAX 68%

(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:52JAX +21% win prob(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q3 · 6:14JAX +16% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd (94-M.Smith) at SF 36. 0-D.Lloyd to SF 28 for 8 yards (88-J.Tonges; 68-C.McKivitz). ** Injury Update: SF-15-J.Jennings has returned to the game.
Q2 · 14:50SF +15% win prob(14:50) 1-T.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:40JAX +13% win prob(2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:36SF Field goal
(8:36) 18-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — SF 3
Q2 · 14:50JAX Touchdown
(14:50) 1-T.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 7 — SF 3
Q2 · 5:06JAX Touchdown
(5:06) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 84-H.Long for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 14 — SF 3
Q2 · 0:43SF Field goal
(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: JAX 14 — SF 6
Q2 · 0:02JAX Field goal
(:02) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 17 — SF 6
Q3 · 8:39SF Touchdown
(8:39) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: JAX 17 — SF 14
Q3 · 4:11JAX Field goal
(4:11) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 20 — SF 14
Q3 · 2:40JAX Touchdown
(2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 26 — SF 14
Q4 · 7:49SF Touchdown
(7:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 26 — SF 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	49ers
Offensive plays	60	64
Total yards	330	391 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	47% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	53%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	4/12	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

49ers outgained Jaguars 391–330 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

22/38, 309 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.4 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

21/31, 174 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

19 att, 124 yds, 1 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

6/11 for 92 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Jake TongesTE

3/5 for 58 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 35	14	57	6:27	Field goal +3
2	JAX	JAX 7	14	48	6:53	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	4	26	1:50	Fumble
4	JAX	SF 48	2	48	0:09	Touchdown +7
5	SF	SF 26	5	37	1:39	Interception
6	JAX	JAX 11	14	107	8:01	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 25	5	6	1:35	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 29	4	-1	0:58	Punt
9	SF	SF 41	12	60	1:48	Field goal +3
10	JAX	SF 47	7	29	0:40	Field goal +3
11	JAX	JAX 35	5	9	2:24	Punt
12	SF	SF 27	9	63	4:04	Touchdown +8
13	JAX	JAX 28	8	21	2:18	Punt
14	SF	SF 20	1	0	0:12	Interception
15	JAX	SF 28	4	11	1:55	Field goal +3
16	SF	SF 35	5	1	1:45	Defensive touchdown
17	SF	SF 35	8	39	3:08	Turnover on downs
18	JAX	JAX 26	4	8	2:17	Punt
19	SF	SF 8	9	92	4:16	Touchdown +7
20	JAX	JAX 44	10	37	4:09	Missed field goal
21	SF	SF 37	2	10	0:45	Fumble
22	JAX	SF 47	6	13	2:47	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 107 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	21/31	174	1	0	0	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	19	124	6.5	1	-0.0
Bhayshul Tuten	4	14	3.5	0	-2.3
Trevor Lawrence	7	7	1.0	0	0.5
Brian Thomas Jr.	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Parker Washington	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brian Thomas Jr.	5	7	49	0	23%	1.3
Brenton Strange	6	7	45	0	23%	2.3
Travis Hunter	3	5	42	0	17%	2.3
Hunter Long	3	3	23	1	10%	3.5
Bhayshul Tuten	1	1	8	0	3%	0.7
LeQuint Allen Jr.	1	1	7	0	3%	1.2
Travis Etienne	1	2	1	0	7%	-1.6
Johnny Mundt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Parker Washington	0	2	0	0	7%	-3.2
Tim Patrick	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyson Campbell	4	5	0.0	0	0
Foye Oluokun	2	5	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	5	2	0.0	2	2
Antonio Johnson	2	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Wingard	2	2	0.0	0	1
Dennis Gardeck	3	0	0.0	0	0
Travis Hunter	1	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	0	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	2	0	1.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	22/38	309	2	2	1	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	17	49	2.9	-4.3
Brian Robinson	5	21	4.2	0.2
Brock Purdy	2	13	6.5	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	6	11	92	1	30%	-0.4
Jake Tonges	3	5	58	1	14%	4.3
Ricky Pearsall	4	5	46	0	14%	5.7
Kyle Juszczyk	3	3	32	0	8%	2.0
Jauan Jennings	2	4	24	0	11%	-2.0
Luke Farrell	2	2	20	0	5%	-3.7
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	20	0	5%	-1.5
Kendrick Bourne	1	4	17	0	11%	-0.1
Skyy Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Dee Winters	9	1	1
Fred Warner	5	3	0
Marques Sigle	6	2	1
Jason Pinnock	2	4	0
Deommodore Lenoir	4	1	0
Darrell Luter Jr.	2	2	0
Sam Okuayinonu	2	2	0
Brayden Willis	2	0	0
Mykel Williams	1	1	0
Bryce Huff	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
JAX moneyline: +150
SF moneyline: -180

49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: JAX 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Liam Coen vs Kyle Shanahan