For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at San Francisco 49ers 21. Final.
49ers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 26, 49ers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:52, 1st and 10, on Brock Purdy — 20.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:52 · 1st and 10
Brock Purdy
Jaguars
(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
O 45.5 ✓
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–21. Biggest swing: Q4 2:52, Jaguars +20.8% win probability on one snap.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Travis EtienneJaguarsQ2 14:50(14:50) 1-T.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
Devin LloydJaguarsQ3 6:14(6:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd (94-M.Smith) at SF 36. 0-D.Lloyd to SF 28 for 8 yards (88-J.Tonges; 68-C.McKivitz). ** Injury Update: SF-15-J.Jennings has returned to the game.
16.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 13 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.07 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Jaguars167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Swing −20.8 for 49ersExpected points −4.35 for 49ersThe model had Jaguars 2 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:52JAX +21% win prob(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
3rd · 6:14JAX +16% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd (94-M.Smith) at SF 36. 0-D.Lloyd to SF 28 for 8 yards (88-J.Tonges; 68-C.McKivitz). ** Injury Update: SF-15-J.Jennings has returned to the game.
2nd · 14:50SF +15% win prob(14:50) 1-T.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:40JAX +13% win prob(2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:35JAX +11% win prob(3:35) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4th · 14:20JAX +10% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Robinson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Etienne's 48-yard rushing touchdown with 14:50 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:36Eddy Pineiro·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+30–3
2nd14:50Travis Etienne·48-yd TD run48-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Jaguars: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Jaguars: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.0249ers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 60 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, 49ers 4.
Note49ers outgained Jaguars 391-330 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.85× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 9.5 points below their season mean of 9.5% and 1.8 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Walker LittleT · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%68 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time85%58 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
12Travis HunterWR · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational37%25 snaps
84Hunter LongTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
55Chuma EdogaT · Rotational32%22 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
70Cole Van LanenT · Rotational28%19 snaps
33Bhayshul TutenRB · Situational24%16 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Situational18%12 snaps
80Quintin MorrisTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Danny StriggowDEKhalen SaundersDTKahlef HailassieFSWyatt MilumGYasir AbdullahOLBCody SchraderRBDyami BrownWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q4 2:52 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at 50 · lost 3 · -4.35 EP · −19.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 92 yards from the SF 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
716
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0958%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1863%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3045%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.0559%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-1.1075%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Jaguars049ers3
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Jaguars 7
Punt15 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the 49ers 37
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 28
2nd quarter60 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars649ers3
Jaguars749ers3
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Jaguars 37
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jaguars1349ers3
Jaguars1449ers3
Touchdown19 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the 49ers 4
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
Punt4 plays
Jaguars1449ers6
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars1749ers6
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 8
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 44
Jaguars1749ers12
Jaguars1749ers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Jaguars 8
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the 49ers 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Jaguars2049ers14
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 21
Jaguars2649ers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 36
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Jaguars 29
4th quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 26
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 35
Jaguars2649ers20
Jaguars2649ers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the Jaguars 21
The period ended11 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the 49ers 29
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the 49ers 37 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
45.5
Jaguars moneyline
+150
49ers moneyline
-180
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Kyle Shanahan
2nd · 13:10JAX +9% win prob(13:10) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 21. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 27 for 6 yards (75-C.Colby). PENALTY on JAX-94-M.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at JAX 27. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 21. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 21 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey). PENALTY on JAX-94-M.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.
2nd · 11:35SF +9% win prob(11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 12-T.Hunter to JAX 34 for 28 yards (36-M.Sigle). JAX-77-A.Harrison was injured during the play. San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
