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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q3 3:47, 3rd and 6, on Andru Phillips — 24.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:47 · 3rd and 6
Andru Phillips
Giants
(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Phillips [0-B.Burns] at NYG 41. 22-A.Phillips to LAC 3 for 56 yards (13-K.Allen). Penalty on LAC-83-T.Conklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
New York Giants 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 3:47, Giants +24.2% win probability on one snap.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.63 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Phillips [0-B.Burns] at NYG 41. 22-A.Phillips to LAC 3 for 56 yards (13-K.Allen). Penalty on LAC-83-T.Conklin, Offensive Pass
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxson Dart's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 9:25 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Giants’s 70 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Giants 5.
Chargers outgained Giants 340-252 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's play-action rate, 9.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 77.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 27.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate, 35.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 0.0% in week 3 against 46.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers8.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.1 vs their 0.8 pts, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 56 snaps
Giants-7.1 ptsright on their number · −2.0 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chargers77.3%leaned — passed early · +18.7 vs their 58.6%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 44 early downs
Giants35.8%leaned — ran early · −15.3 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Chargers9.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −14.3 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Giants26.7%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Giants33.3%leaned — took the kick · −19.9 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±19.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chargers46.7%leaned — sent pressure · +21.2 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±15.1 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Giants38.6%right on their number · +5.3 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Chargers26.7%leaned — got home · +11.5 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Giants27.3%leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
LAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 9.1%, 14.3 points below their season mean of 23.4% and 1.8 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
23/41, 203 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-21.1 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
13/20, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.5 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
8/13 for 98 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Omarion Hampton banked 14.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion HamptonRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.5 | +14.3 | 89% | 82% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 128 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 37 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.8 | +4.7 | 92% | 89% | 34% | 54% | 8/13, 98 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | +0.2 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 111 yd, 1 TD · 10 car, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Committee Back | 13.0 | −9.3 | 75% | 67% | 10% | 0% | 25 car, 79 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 12.5 | +0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/41, 203 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 24 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.7 | +0.6 | 70% | 57% | 25% | 31% | 3/5, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −0.2 | 78% | 75% | 18% | 11% | 5/7, 37 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | +1.0 | 87% | 70% | 20% | 54% | 3/4, 44 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.4 | −5.0 | 97% | 90% | 25% | 0% | 3/5, 14 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.0 | 33% | 33% | 15% | 20% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.5 | 48% | 55% | 8% | 7% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 2.8 | −0.7 | 25% | 23% | 0% | — | 7 car, 28 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.5 | 32% | 33% | 5% | 8% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −5.9 | 92% | 91% | 16% | 22% | 1/6, 11 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 19% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Scott MatlockRB | 1.1 | −0.2 | 21% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB | 0.3 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kimani VidalRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tre HarrisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 19% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 21% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Phillips [0-B.Burns] at NYG 41. 22-A.Phillips to LAC 3 for 56 yards (13-K.Allen). Penalty on LAC-83-T.Conklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q3 3:47 · Chargers · 3rd & 6 at LAC 45 · gained nothing · -7.15 EP · −20.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 89 yards from the NYG 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers0
Giants6Chargers0Giants7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers0Giants10Chargers3Giants10Chargers3Giants13Chargers9Giants13Chargers10Giants13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers10Giants19Chargers10Giants21How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Chargers16Giants21Chargers18Giants21How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/41 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −21.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 12 | 128 | 10.7 | 1 | +7.2 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | +4.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 8 | 13 | 98 | 1 | 34% | +2.5 |
| Omarion Hampton | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Dye | 3 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 7 | 3 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 13/20 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 5 | −4.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.2 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_LAC_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 18% | +0.4 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −10.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Scott Matlock | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Tucker Fisk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Tre Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −7.9 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Jaxson Dart | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 20% | +3.7 |
| Malik Nabers | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +0.6 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 25% | +0.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 25% | −4.9 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Burns | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Nubin | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
