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2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

21

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

24

MIN -2.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 12:28, PIT +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑MIN ↓
Q2 · 12:28MIN 3 — PIT 13PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 51%

(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:28PIT +19% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:43MIN +18% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [51-N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
  3. Q4 · 1:08MIN +13% win prob(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
  4. Q4 · 2:13PIT +11% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:28MIN Field goal

    (6:28) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — PIT 0
  2. Q1 · 0:58PIT Touchdown

    (:58) 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 12:28PIT Touchdown

    (12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — PIT 14
  4. Q2 · 0:16MIN Field goal

    (:16) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — PIT 14
  5. Q3 · 2:26PIT Touchdown

    (2:26) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — PIT 21
  6. Q4 · 11:21PIT Field goal

    (11:21) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — PIT 24
  7. Q4 · 7:56MIN Touchdown

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 36-Z.Scott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — PIT 24
  8. Q4 · 2:13MIN Touchdown

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 21 — PIT 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsSteelers
Offensive plays7251
Total yards374 (edge)315
Yards per play5.26.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.040.20 (edge)
Success rate44%59% (edge)
Dropback rate75%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.16 (edge)
Third downs4/134/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)17
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Vikings outgained Steelers 374–315 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Carson WentzQB

30/46, 350 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.2 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

18/22, 200 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

19 att, 99 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

16 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

10/11 for 126 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

DK MetcalfWR

5/5 for 126 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 355-22:11Punt
2MINMIN 2611566:25Defensive touchdown +3
3PITPIT 2911715:29Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 307173:27Punt
5PITPIT 202800:12Touchdown +7
6MINMIN 2611316:26Interception
7PITPIT 3212354:12Missed field goal
8MINMIN 99611:26Field goal +3
9PITPIT 24200:12End of half
10MINMIN 325-91:51Punt
11PITPIT 26472:06Punt
12MINMIN 1011335:48Interception
13PITMIN 356352:52Touchdown +7
14MINMIN 185-91:48Punt
15PITMIN 468314:17Field goal +3
16MINMIN 3011723:28Touchdown +8
17PITPIT 3510493:41Turnover on downs
18MINMIN 18992:01Touchdown +7
19PITMIN 49591:06Punt
20MINMIN 206230:54Turnover on downs
21PITMIN 32100:08End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 99 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Carson Wentz30/463502263.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason16573.60-0.3
Carson Wentz2126.001.6
Zavier Scott210.50-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson1011126026%7.1
Jordan Addison48114019%2.2
Zavier Scott6843119%-1.1
T.J. Hockenson4539012%1.3
Jordan Mason331507%-0.1
Adam Thielen221105%2.6
Jalen Nailor142110%2.3
Josh Oliver01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Wilson540.000
Josh Metellus450.000
Ivan Pace Jr.250.000
Byron Murphy320.000
Jonathan Allen320.000
Javon Hargrave410.000
Elijah Williams310.000
Dallas Turner130.000
Harrison Smith300.000
Jalen Redmond212.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers18/222001023.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Gainwell19995.223.4
Kaleb Johnson6223.70-0.7
Aaron Rodgers382.700.8
Connor Heyward122.001.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf55126123%10.1
Kenneth Gainwell6635027%-1.2
Darnell Washington3320014%0.9
Calvin Austin III221309%0.7
Jonnu Smith236014%-1.5
Kaleb Johnson01005%-0.4
Ben Skowronek01005%-0.7
Scott Miller01005%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Payton Wilson850.000
Patrick Queen831.000
DeShon Elliott421.012
Nick Herbig321.500
T.J. Watt321.011
Darius Slay410.000
Jalen Ramsey220.000
Keeanu Benton131.500
Juan Thornhill210.001
Ben Skowronek210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Closing total
41.5
MIN moneyline
-148
PIT moneyline
+124

Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 45 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
MIN 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Mike Tomlin