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Minnesota Vikings 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 24. Final.
Vikings -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Vikings 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 12:28, 1st and 10, on DK Metcalf — 19.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:28 · 1st and 10
DK Metcalf
Steelers
(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 41.5 ✓
Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 12:28, Steelers +19.4% win probability on one snap.
19.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetVikingsQ4 1:08(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
12.5pts
Carson WentzSteelersQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [51-N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
17.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Vikings at +0.04 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Vikings159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.4 for SteelersExpected points +6.40 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 13 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:28PIT +19% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:43MIN +18% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [51-N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
4th · 1:08MIN +13% win prob(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
4th · 2:13PIT +11% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:25PIT +11% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 3-J.Addison to PIT 1 for 81 yards (41-P.Wilson).
3rd · 6:04MIN +8% win prob(6:04) 11-C.Wentz sacked at 50 for -5 yards (90-T.Watt).
3rd · 5:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenny Gainwell's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:58 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:28Will Reichard·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–0
1st0:58Kenny Gainwell·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.20Steelers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.24Steelers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Steelers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 72 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Steelers’s 51 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Steelers 6.
NoteVikings outgained Steelers 374-315 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.0% in week 3 against 70.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 32.3% in week 3 against 12.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Steelers24.1%
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.9%, 16.3 points above their season mean of 54.6% and 1.5 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%76 snaps
76Will FriesG · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%76 snaps
11Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Every snap100%76 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time96%73 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time93%71 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Full-time86%65 snaps
1Jalen NailorWR · Heavy rotation63%48 snaps
27Jordan MasonRB · Heavy rotation62%47 snaps
65Michael JurgensC · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Rotational45%34 snaps
36Zavier ScottRB · Rotational38%29 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational28%21 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Situational16%12 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Situational14%11 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Donovan JacksonGAndrew Van GinkelOLBDesmond RidderQBJ.J. McCarthyQBWalter RouseTBen YurosekTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:28 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 20 · gained 80 · +6.40 EP · +16.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 99 yards from the MIN 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0675%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0453%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4267%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.2933%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.5467%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2450%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.030%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays
Vikings3Steelers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Steelers 13
Vikings3Steelers6
Vikings3Steelers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Vikings 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 31
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Steelers 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Vikings3Steelers13
Vikings3Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted12 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Steelers 42
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Vikings 10
Vikings6Steelers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Steelers 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 35
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 33
Intercepted11 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Steelers 44
Vikings6Steelers20
Vikings6Steelers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 4
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 19
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter59 plays
Vikings6Steelers24
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 15
Vikings12Steelers24
Vikings14Steelers24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Steelers 16
The period ended12 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Vikings 3
Vikings20Steelers24
Vikings21Steelers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 1 to the Steelers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 49 to the Vikings 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -2.5
Closing total
41.5
Vikings moneyline
-148
Steelers moneyline
+124
Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 45 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Mike Tomlin
MIN +7% win prob
(5:22) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 36-Z.Scott INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at MIN 48. 90-T.Watt to MIN 35 for 13 yards (36-Z.Scott).
3rd · 13:41MIN +7% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 23 for -8 yards (sack split by 95-K.Benton and 51-N.Herbig). Penalty on MIN-27-J.Mason, Offensive Holding, declined.
