For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Buffalo Bills 31, Saints 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 3:42, 3rd and 22, on Josh Allen — 8.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:42 · 3rd and 22
Josh Allen
Saints
(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Bills closed -15.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 31–19. Biggest swing: Q2 3:42, Saints +8.5% win probability on one snap.
8.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ2 3:02(3:02) 16-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-R.Shaheed to BUF 40 for 10 yards (56-J.Solomon; 39-C.Lewis).
7.5pts
Khalil ShakirSaintsQ4 12:56(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
8.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Saints156 of 170 plays carry both curves
(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Swing −8.5 for BillsExpected points −0.77 for BillsThe model had Saints 24 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:42NO +8% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (96-C.Granderson).
4th · 12:56NO +8% win prob(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
2nd · 3:02BUF +7% win prob(3:02) 16-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-R.Shaheed to BUF 40 for 10 yards (56-J.Solomon; 39-C.Lewis).
1st · 6:54BUF +7% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:01BUF +6% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to NO 28 for 27 yards (56-D.Davis).
1st · 10:58BUF +6% win prob(10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:31NO +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Cook's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:33 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th2:12Matt Prater·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Ferguson+319–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryBills
Saints2–3Bills
298Total yards359
4.5Yards per play6.6
42%Success rate48%
38%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
22First downs19
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 3–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — yards per play.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.30Bills: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Saints: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.09Bills: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bills’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, sat 10.7 points above their season number of 14.3% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 3.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +10.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bills14.3%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 10.7 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Kelvin Banks Jr.T · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Trevor PenningG · Every snap100%67 snaps
2Spencer RattlerQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Brandin CooksWR · Full-time90%60 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Full-time90%60 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Full-time85%57 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation73%49 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
68Torricelli Simpkins IIIG · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:58 · Bills · 2nd & 5 at NO 43 · gained 43 · +3.95 EP · +12.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2859%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1354%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.6825%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.0613%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.8043%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
Saints0Bills6
Saints0Bills7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Saints 43
Saints6Bills7
Saints7Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Bills 18
Saints7Bills13
Saints7Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Saints 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 44
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 40
Intercepted3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 47
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 3 to the Bills 19
Saints10Bills14
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 35
Punt6 plays
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 3 to the Bills 6
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Bills 49
Saints10Bills20
Saints10Bills21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Saints 5
Saints16Bills21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Bills 3
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.7 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Saints 49
Saints19Bills21
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 13
Saints19Bills27
Saints19Bills28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Saints 28
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Bills 43
Saints19Bills31
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Saints 17
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 39
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -15.5
Closing total
48.5
Saints moneyline
+800
Bills moneyline
-1350
Bills closed -15.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 50 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Saints 7 days · Bills 10 days
Coaches
Kellen Moore vs Sean McDermott
(1:31) (Shotgun) 12-C.Olave pass short right intended for 2-S.Rattler INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop at BUF 1. 24-C.Bishop pushed ob at BUF 14 for 13 yards (75-T.Fuaga). PENALTY on BUF-42-D.Williams, Illegal Blindside Block, 2 yards, enforced at BUF 5.
4th · 9:42NO +5% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to BUF 17 for -4 yards (27-T.White).
