2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · New Era Field
New Orleans Saints
19
Buffalo BillsWinner
31
Buffalo Bills 31–19. Biggest swing: Q2 3:42, NO +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 3:42NO +8% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (96-C.Granderson).
- Q4 · 12:56NO +8% win prob(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
- Q2 · 3:02BUF +7% win prob(3:02) 16-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-R.Shaheed to BUF 40 for 10 yards (56-J.Solomon; 39-C.Lewis).
- Q1 · 6:54BUF +7% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 10:58BUF Touchdown
(10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — BUF 7 - Q1 · 6:54NO Touchdown
(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — BUF 7 - Q1 · 2:33BUF Touchdown
(2:33) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — BUF 14 - Q2 · 5:36NO Field goal
(5:36) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 10 — BUF 14 - Q3 · 6:48BUF Touchdown
(6:48) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — BUF 21 - Q3 · 0:17NO Touchdown
(:17) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 16 — BUF 21 - Q4 · 8:56NO Field goal
(8:56) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 19 — BUF 21 - Q4 · 7:12BUF Touchdown
(7:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 19 — BUF 28 - Q4 · 2:12BUF Field goal
(2:12) 15-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: BUF-16-C.Johnston has returned to the game.
Score after this play: NO 19 — BUF 31
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 54 |
| Total yards | 298 | 359 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 6.6 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | 0.20 (edge) |
| Success rate | 42% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 53% | 52% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 | 0.30 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 (edge) | 3/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 19 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
16/22, 209 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.9 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected
Passing · NO
18/27, 126 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.4 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 21 | 9 | 79 | 4:11 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | NO | NO 31 | 9 | 64 | 4:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 34 | 9 | 66 | 4:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | NO | NO 13 | 10 | 47 | 3:51 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 13 | 3 | -1 | 0:53 | Interception | |
| 6 | NO | BUF 49 | 4 | 2 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 3 | 6 | 16 | 2:31 | Punt | |
| 8 | NO | BUF 49 | 7 | 13 | 3:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 28 | 5 | -16 | 2:39 | Punt | |
| 10 | NO | BUF 40 | 8 | 35 | 1:30 | Interception | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 3 | 3 | 14 | 1:22 | End of half | |
| 12 | NO | NO 32 | 6 | 19 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 20 | 10 | 90 | 6:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | NO | NO 35 | 13 | 60 | 6:28 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 31 | 6 | 19 | 2:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | NO | BUF 49 | 9 | 32 | 3:59 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 40 | 6 | 60 | 1:46 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | NO | NO 31 | 7 | 28 | 1:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 41 | 9 | 32 | 3:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 35 | 5 | -2 | 0:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | BUF | NO 34 | 3 | 0 | 1:44 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 18/27 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8.4 |
| Chris Olave | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Kendre Miller | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 | 2.9 |
| Spencer Rattler | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 20% | 0.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | 1.3 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24% | 0.8 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20% | -5.0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -3.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cameron Jordan | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 1 | 3.2 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 | 2.6 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 23% | 2.6 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 18% | 2.1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 9% | 2.5 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14% | 1.7 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 18% | -0.8 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 0.8 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | 0.6 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Davious White | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Strong | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -15.5
- Closing total
- 48.5
- NO moneyline
- +800
- BUF moneyline
- -1350
Bills closed -15.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 50 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 73°F, wind 7 mph
- Referee
- Land Clark
- Rest
- NO 7 days · BUF 10 days
- Coaches
- Kellen Moore vs Sean McDermott