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2025 Week 4 · Mon, Sep 29, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

21

Miami DolphinsWinner

27

MIA -2.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓17 mph wind

Miami Dolphins 27–21. Biggest swing: Q1 3:06, NYJ +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑NYJ ↓
Q1 · 3:06NYJ 0 — MIA 3NYJ ball · 2nd & 6NYJ 53%

(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:06NYJ +14% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.
  2. Q3 · 9:36MIA +13% win prob(9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 12:55MIA +9% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle to NYJ 21 for 25 yards (30-M.Carter; 22-T.Adams).
  4. Q2 · 9:26MIA +7% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:55MIA Field goal

    (10:55) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 3
  2. Q2 · 9:26MIA Touchdown

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 10
  3. Q2 · 0:02NYJ Field goal

    (:02) 6-N.Folk 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 10
  4. Q3 · 11:38MIA Touchdown

    (11:38) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 17
  5. Q3 · 9:36NYJ Touchdown

    (9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIA 17
  6. Q3 · 5:26MIA Touchdown

    (5:26) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIA 24
  7. Q4 · 13:14NYJ Field goal

    (13:14) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — MIA 24
  8. Q4 · 3:36MIA Field goal

    (3:36) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — MIA 27
  9. Q4 · 1:56NYJ Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 21 — MIA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsDolphins
Offensive plays5856
Total yards389 (edge)300
Yards per play6.7 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)0.13
Success rate62% (edge)39%
Dropback rate60%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.370.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.16 (edge)-0.18
Third downs4/9 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)18
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Jets outgained Dolphins 389–300 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

20/27, 226 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

17/25, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

20 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

7 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

8.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 3411374:09Field goal +3
2NYJNYJ 1413817:51Fumble
3MIAMIA 4161108:40Touchdown +7
4NYJNYJ 269255:04Fumble
5MIANYJ 434102:24Punt
6NYJNYJ 1610441:52Field goal +3
7NYJ—100:07Fumble
8MIANYJ 367363:20Touchdown +7
9NYJNYJ 486522:10Touchdown +7
10MIAMIA 329434:03Touchdown +7
11NYJNYJ 356142:45Punt
12MIAMIA 10421:11Punt
13NYJNYJ 376563:15Field goal +3
14MIAMIA 34561:45Punt
15NYJNYJ 38434:22Punt
16MIAMIA 268563:29Field goal +3
17NYJNYJ 399631:44Touchdown +8
18MIANYJ 45501:47Punt
19NYJNYJ 11110:02End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 110 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields20/272261025.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields78111.618.2
Breece Hall14815.800.5
Braelon Allen4266.50-3.7
Isaiah Davis393.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson6882130%3.8
Mason Taylor5765026%6.9
Breece Hall5630022%-1.6
Jeremy Ruckert112304%1.0
Isaiah Davis221807%1.0
Allen Lazard11804%0.2
Josh Reynolds02007%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood190.001
Isaiah Oliver630.000
Andre Cisco530.000
Brandon Stephens530.001
Francisco Mauigoa230.000
Quinnen Williams230.000
Tony Adams120.001
Malachi Moore210.000
Micheal Clemons210.000
Sauce Gardner200.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa17/2517720010.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane20995.01-2.1
Ollie Gordon II6101.70-2.0
Malik Washington284.00-0.1
Tua Tagovailoa362.001.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill6667024%7.2
Jaylen Waddle3648024%0.5
Darren Waller3427216%6.5
Julian Hill121908%1.0
Malik Washington2313012%-2.4
De'Von Achane12208%-1.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11104%-0.8
Ollie Gordon II01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks1530.000
Tyrel Dodson541.000
Jack Jones140.000
Zach Sieler410.000
Ashtyn Davis310.000
Rasul Douglas211.002
Bradley Chubb300.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick200.001
Dante Trader Jr.110.000
Jaelan Phillips110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Closing total
44.5
NYJ moneyline
+124
MIA moneyline
-148

Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
88°F, wind 17 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
NYJ 8 days · MIA 11 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.