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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Mon, Sep 29, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q1 3:06, 2nd and 6, on Braelon Allen — 13.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:06 · 2nd and 6
Braelon Allen
Dolphins
(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.
Miami Dolphins 27–21. Biggest swing: Q1 3:06, Dolphins +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 62% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 5 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Riley Patterson's 47-yard field goal with 10:55 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Riley Patterson47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+30–3
Garrett Wilson23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Fields · two-point good+821–279 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 56 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Dolphins 4.
Jets outgained Dolphins 389-300 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-14.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 57 snaps
Dolphins-3.9 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jets58.7%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 46 early downs
Dolphins37.2%leaned — ran early · −13.7 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Jets14.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Dolphins40.7%inside their normal wobble · +11.3 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.0%.
Dolphins25.0%right on their number · −8.1 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Jets29.6%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins40.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 26%
Tendencies room →Jets0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins8.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 9.8 points below their season mean of 9.8% and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
20/27, 226 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.6 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
17/25, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Fields banked 13.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 27.1 | +13.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/27, 226 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.2 | +7.4 | 98% | 83% | 30% | 38% | 6/8, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 17.7 | +6.8 | 28% | 37% | 16% | 33% | 3/4, 27 yd, 2 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.1 | +1.7 | 76% | 70% | 8% | 1% | 20 car, 99 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 16.1 | +0.8 | 63% | 46% | 22% | 13% | 14 car, 81 yd · 5/6, 30 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 177 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 12.7 | +3.9 | 41% | 44% | 24% | 29% | 6/6, 67 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.5 | +1.5 | 81% | 71% | 26% | 27% | 5/7, 65 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −2.9 | 90% | 85% | 24% | 30% | 3/6, 48 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 4.7 | −0.5 | 33% | 40% | 7% | 4% | 3 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −2.0 | 48% | 56% | 12% | 7% | 2 car, 8 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +2.0 | 40% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 23 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | 0.0 | 69% | 48% | 8% | 1% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 43% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.3 | 47% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 1.0 | −4.1 | 26% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 6 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 0.6 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 67% | 63% | 7% | 14% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.
Q1 3:06 · Jets · 2nd & goal at MIA 6 · gained 2 · -5.17 EP · −17.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 96 yards from the MIA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Dolphins3How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Jets0Dolphins9Jets0Dolphins10Jets3Dolphins10Jets3Dolphins16Jets3Dolphins17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Jets9Dolphins17Jets10Dolphins17Jets10Dolphins23Jets10Dolphins24Jets13Dolphins24Jets13Dolphins27Jets19Dolphins27Jets21Dolphins27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 20/27 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Breece Hall | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 30% | +3.8 |
| Mason Taylor | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 26% | +6.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/25 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_NYJ_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 22% | −1.6 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Francisco Mauigoa | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micheal Clemons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sauce Gardner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 99 |
| 5.0 |
| 1 |
| −2.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 24% | +7.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 24% | +0.5 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 16% | +6.5 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −2.4 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 15 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bradley Chubb | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
