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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q4 7:57, 1st and 10, on Jihaad Campbell — 13.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:57 · 1st and 10
Jihaad Campbell
Eagles
(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–25. Biggest swing: Q4 7:57, Eagles +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 13 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sydney Brown's 35-yard return touchdown with 12:59 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers outgained Eagles 376-200 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 3 against 4.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 36.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-3.9 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 58 snaps
Buccaneers-5.5 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Eagles51.2%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 43 early downs
Buccaneers58.8%right on their number · +4.6 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Eagles22.6%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.0%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles0.0%inside their normal wobble · −32.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −11.7 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 62%
Tendencies room →Eagles41.9%leaned — sent pressure · +15.7 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Buccaneers51.6%leaned — sent pressure · +14.0 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Eagles4.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Buccaneers9.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
PHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 15.7 points above their season mean of 26.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
22/40, 289 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-5.4 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
15/24, 130 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-1.3 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Bucky Irving banked 11.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 25.5 | +11.3 | 61% | 48% | 13% | 0% | 15 car, 63 yd · 5/5, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.1 | +3.1 | 89% | 89% | 26% | 46% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/10, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.7 | +8.0 | 75% | 65% | 17% | 12% | 4/4, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 130 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 62 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/40, 289 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 13 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 17.4 | +1.4 | 84% | 74% | 17% | 0% | 19 car, 43 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 31 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 8.6 | −1.4 | 42% | 50% | 13% | 0% | 6 car, 17 yd · 4/5, 29 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 5.6 | −11.1 | 81% | 86% | 26% | 46% | 3/10, 26 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +1.5 | 91% | 81% | 8% | 13% | 2/2, 29 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.4 | 62% | 68% | 10% | 7% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/4, 14 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.7 | 96% | 93% | 10% | 5% | 3/4, 9 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 2.7 | −12.3 | 96% | 81% | 38% | 71% | 2/9, 7 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.3 | 49% | 35% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.4 | 32% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 1.7 | +0.1 | 14% | 10% | 0% | — | 3 car, 17 yd |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 54% | 52% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Devin CulpTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 8 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q4 7:57 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at PHI 11 · gained nothing · -5.78 EP · −20.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 86 yards from the TB 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Buccaneers0Eagles7Buccaneers0Eagles13Buccaneers0Eagles14Buccaneers0Eagles14Buccaneers3Eagles20Buccaneers3Eagles21Buccaneers3Eagles24Buccaneers3Eagles24Buccaneers6Eagles24Buccaneers12Eagles24Buccaneers13Eagles30Buccaneers13Eagles31Buccaneers13Eagles31Buccaneers19Eagles31Buccaneers20Eagles31Buccaneers23How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Eagles31Buccaneers25Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/24 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 1 | −2.2 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 17% | +4.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper DeJean | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Zack Baun | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/40 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_PHI_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 56 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| Braden Mann | 1 | -34 | -34.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 8% | +4.5 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 38% | −6.1 |
| Will Shipley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joshua Uche | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
| 63 |
| 4.2 |
| 0 |
| −5.8 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 13% | +7.5 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 10 | 101 | 1 | 26% | +0.4 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 26% | −4.4 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −5.1 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −2.7 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tykee Smith | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yaya Diaby | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
