2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PHI -3.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles 31–25. Biggest swing: Q4 7:57, PHI +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:57PHI 31 — TB 23TB ball · 1st & 10PHI 78%

(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:57PHI +13% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 · 12:59PHI +9% win prob(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:04TB +6% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:02PHI +5% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson). FUMBLES (34-P.Nickerson), ball out of bounds at PHI 32. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:59PHI Touchdown
(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — TB 0
Q1 · 7:12PHI Touchdown
(7:12) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — TB 0
Q1 · 0:01TB Field goal
(:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: PHI 14 — TB 3
Q2 · 6:14PHI Touchdown
(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David]. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — TB 3
Q2 · 1:01PHI Field goal
(1:01) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 24 — TB 3
Q2 · 0:04TB Field goal
(:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: PHI 24 — TB 6
Q3 · 10:04TB Touchdown
(10:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 24 — TB 13
Q3 · 3:57PHI Touchdown
(3:57) 26-S.Barkley left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 31 — TB 13
Q3 · 2:24TB Touchdown
(2:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 7-B.Irving for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 31 — TB 20
Q4 · 12:20TB Field goal
(12:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: PHI 31 — TB 23
Q4 · 0:06TB Safety
(:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather).
Score after this play: PHI 31 — TB 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	58	67
Total yards	200	376 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	41% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	53%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers outgained Eagles 376–200 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

22/40, 289 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

15/24, 130 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

15 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

9 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

5/5 for 102 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Emeka EgbukaWR

4/10 for 101 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 20	7	28	2:09	Defensive touchdown
2	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:29	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 27	9	73	4:14	Touchdown +7
4	TB	TB 28	13	19	7:08	Field goal +3
5	PHI	PHI 30	5	7	2:26	Punt
6	TB	TB 16	6	23	2:50	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 33	7	67	3:34	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 20	5	6	1:10	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 25	12	54	4:02	Field goal +3
10	TB	TB 23	7	15	0:58	Field goal +3
11	PHI	PHI 32	5	-9	2:28	Punt
12	TB	PHI 40	4	7	1:36	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 34	4	7	0:52	Punt
14	TB	TB 23	2	77	0:13	Touchdown +7
15	PHI	PHI 40	5	-7	1:40	Punt
16	TB	TB 17	2	7	0:52	Fumble
17	PHI	TB 25	7	25	3:28	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 14	6	86	1:41	Touchdown +7
19	PHI	PHI 35	7	5	2:18	Punt
20	TB	TB 31	6	21	2:36	Field goal +3
21	PHI	PHI 23	5	0	0:28	Punt
22	TB	PHI 47	8	31	4:00	Interception
23	PHI	PHI 20	4	8	1:41	Punt
24	TB	TB 22	12	48	5:10	Turnover on downs
25	PHI	PHI 35	4	-30	0:57	Safety

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	15/24	130	2	0	2	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jalen Hurts	9	62	6.9	0	1.5
Saquon Barkley	19	43	2.3	1	-2.2
AJ Dillon	3	17	5.7	0	-0.3
Braden Mann	1	-34	-34.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	4	4	37	2	17%	4.1
Saquon Barkley	4	4	31	0	17%	0.4
DeVonta Smith	2	2	29	0	8%	4.5
Grant Calcaterra	1	2	16	0	8%	0.5
John Metchie III	2	2	10	0	8%	0.5
A.J. Brown	2	9	7	0	38%	-6.1
Will Shipley	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cooper DeJean	8	1	0.0	0	3
Zack Baun	5	3	1.0	0	0
Andrew Mukuba	3	2	0.0	0	0
Quinyon Mitchell	4	1	0.0	0	5
Joshua Uche	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kylen Granson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	4	0	0.0	0	2
Kelee Ringo	4	0	0.0	0	1
Jihaad Campbell	2	2	0.0	1	1
Byron Young	2	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/40	289	2	1	2	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bucky Irving	15	63	4.2	-5.8
Rachaad White	6	17	2.8	1.2
Baker Mayfield	2	13	6.5	1.5
Sterling Shepard	1	6	6.0	0.1
Tez Johnson	1	5	5.0	0.0
Emeka Egbuka	1	0	0.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bucky Irving	5	5	102	1	13%	7.5
Emeka Egbuka	4	10	101	1	26%	0.4
Rachaad White	4	5	29	0	13%	1.3
Chris Godwin Jr.	3	10	26	0	26%	-4.4
Sterling Shepard	2	4	14	0	10%	-5.1
Cade Otton	3	4	9	0	10%	-2.7
Tez Johnson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tykee Smith	5	4	0.0	2
SirVocea Dennis	5	2	0.0	0
Zyon McCollum	4	0	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	1	0.0	1
Antoine Winfield Jr.	3	1	0.0	0
Jacob Parrish	2	1	0.0	1
Benjamin Morrison	3	0	0.0	1
Vita Vea	3	0	2.0	0
Yaya Diaby	3	0	0.0	0
Lavonte David	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3.5
Closing total: 44.5
PHI moneyline: -185
TB moneyline: +154

Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 56 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 88°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: PHI 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Todd Bowles