2025 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 25, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Arizona Cardinals

SEA -1.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Seattle Seahawks 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, ARI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:23SEA 20 — ARI 20SEA ball · 2nd & 10SEA 65%

(:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass d

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:23ARI +22% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q4 · 0:04ARI +17% win prob(:04) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 · 0:33ARI +11% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:16ARI +11% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison to SEA 7 for 18 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:41ARI Field goal
(4:41) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: SEA 0 — ARI 3
Q1 · 1:38SEA Touchdown
(1:38) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — ARI 3
Q2 · 1:07SEA Touchdown
(1:07) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 14 — ARI 3
Q3 · 9:01SEA Field goal
(9:01) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 17 — ARI 3
Q3 · 1:44ARI Field goal
(1:44) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: SEA 17 — ARI 6
Q4 · 9:37SEA Field goal
(9:37) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 20 — ARI 6
Q4 · 5:55ARI Touchdown
(5:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 20 — ARI 13
Q4 · 0:33ARI Touchdown
(:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 20 — ARI 20
Q4 · 0:04SEA Field goal
(:04) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 23 — ARI 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Cardinals
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	384 (edge)	253
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	42% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	47%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

18/26, 242 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

27/41, 200 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

19 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

5 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

4/5 for 79 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR

6/10 for 66 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 26	7	18	2:43	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 14	6	38	3:15	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	ARI 48	2	0	0:16	Interception
4	ARI	SEA 47	6	28	4:09	Field goal +3
5	SEA	SEA 23	9	77	3:04	Touchdown +7
6	ARI	ARI 26	5	-1	1:43	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 26	6	3	2:53	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 27	10	40	3:37	Interception
9	SEA	ARI 49	6	20	2:40	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 20	4	9	1:55	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 10	8	74	2:44	Touchdown +7
12	ARI	ARI 26	7	13	1:01	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 34	11	40	6:04	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 35	6	8	2:30	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 13	4	0	1:36	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 38	7	23	3:11	Field goal +3
17	SEA	SEA 34	15	63	7:06	Field goal +3
18	ARI	ARI 27	10	58	3:43	Touchdown +7
19	SEA	SEA 22	8	43	2:34	Missed field goal
20	ARI	ARI 43	13	57	2:48	Touchdown +7
21	SEA	SEA 40	5	26	0:28	Field goal +3

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	18/26	242	1	0	3	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker III	19	81	4.3	0	-5.5
Zach Charbonnet	12	39	3.3	1	-2.2
Sam Darnold	1	24	24.0	0	1.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	3	11	3.7	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	4	5	79	0	21%	7.3
Elijah Arroyo	2	4	44	0	17%	1.8
AJ Barner	3	3	32	1	13%	3.2
Kenneth Walker III	1	2	29	0	8%	2.0
Cooper Kupp	4	5	26	0	21%	-0.1
Jake Bobo	1	1	17	0	4%	1.6
Tory Horton	1	2	10	0	8%	-0.4
Zach Charbonnet	2	2	5	0	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devon Witherspoon	5	4	0.5	0	1
Ernest Jones	4	4	0.5	1	1
Julian Love	6	0	0.0	0	1
Josh Jobe	4	1	0.5	0	1
Drake Thomas	4	1	1.0	0	1
Tyrice Knight	4	1	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	3	2	2.0	0	0
Derick Hall	2	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	3	1	1.5	0	1
Dareke Young	3	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	27/41	200	2	2	6	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyler Murray	5	41	8.2	0.1
Trey Benson	8	35	4.4	-0.4
Emari Demercado	2	8	4.0	-0.2
Greg Dortch	1	4	4.0	-0.3
Michael Carter	1	1	1.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Harrison Jr.	6	10	66	1	25%	1.2
Trey McBride	7	11	52	0	28%	1.5
Greg Dortch	4	5	35	0	13%	0.4
Trey Benson	5	5	19	0	13%	0.1
Michael Wilson	3	6	15	0	15%	0.5
Emari Demercado	2	2	13	1	5%	2.7
Xavier Weaver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Akeem Davis-Gaither	5	5	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	5	4	0.0	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	4	3	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	3	3	0.0	0
PJ Mustipher	1	3	0.0	0
Denzel Burke	2	2	0.0	0
Kei'Trel Clark	2	1	0.0	0
Max Melton	2	1	0.0	2
Calais Campbell	2	1	1.0	0
Zaven Collins	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1.5
Closing total: 43.5
SEA moneyline: -125
ARI moneyline: +105

Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 43 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SEA 4 days · ARI 4 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.