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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 25, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:23, 2nd and 10, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 21.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:23 · 2nd and 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton).
Seattle Seahawks 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, Seahawks +21.7% win probability on one snap.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 2 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass d
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Myers's 52-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jason Myers52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+323–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Cardinals 3.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-10.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 64 snaps
Cardinals4.5 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 93%
Tendencies room →Seahawks42.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 50 early downs
Cardinals75.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Seahawks26.7%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Cardinals13.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.6 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 83%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Seahawks15.7%leaned — sat back · −9.4 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Cardinals16.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Seahawks13.7%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Cardinals10.0%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
SEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.7%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 25.1% and 1.1 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
18/26, 242 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.9 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
27/41, 200 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-3.3 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
4/5 for 79 yds, 0 TD
21% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added
Receiving · ARI
6/10 for 66 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Emari Demercado banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +2.7 | 100% | 92% | 25% | 42% | 6/10, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | −2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/41, 200 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 41 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 242 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 24 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +2.5 | 80% | 87% | 21% | 33% | 3 car, 11 yd · 4/5, 79 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −3.4 | 47% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 12 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | −5.4 | 96% | 90% | 28% | 33% | 7/11, 52 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +4.8 | 86% | 83% | 13% | 9% | 3/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 12.0 | −1.4 | 50% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 19 car, 81 yd · 1/2, 29 yd |
| Trey BensonRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −0.7 | 55% | 45% | 13% | 0% | 8 car, 35 yd · 5/5, 19 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 10.1 | +4.8 | 39% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −0.1 | 64% | 63% | 13% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 4/5, 35 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −1.0 | 74% | 80% | 21% | 6% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −3.9 | 55% | 60% | 17% | 20% | 2/4, 44 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −4.5 | 97% | 92% | 15% | 19% | 3/6, 15 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.7 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.3 | 36% | 40% | 8% | 21% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 0.1 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 21% | 18% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Simi FehokoWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Bam KnightRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| George HolaniRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:04) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:04 · Seahawks · 2nd & 6 at ARI 34 · gained nothing · +0.93 EP · +30.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 90 yards from the SEA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Cardinals3Seahawks6Cardinals3Seahawks7Cardinals3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Seahawks13Cardinals3Seahawks14Cardinals3Seahawks17Cardinals3Seahawks17Cardinals6Seahawks20Cardinals6Seahawks20Cardinals12Seahawks20Cardinals13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks20Cardinals19Seahawks20Cardinals20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks23Cardinals20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/26 | 242 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 21% | +7.3 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 17% | +1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Witherspoon | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Julian Love | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/41 | 200 | 2 | 2 | 6 | −3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_04_SEA_ARI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 43 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 8% | +2.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 21% | −0.1 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Tory Horton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrice Knight | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Dareke Young | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
| 41 |
| 8.2 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Trey Benson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 10 | 66 | 1 | 25% | +1.2 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 28% | +1.5 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Trey Benson | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 5% | +2.7 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Mustipher | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Burke | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kei'Trel Clark | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kitan Crawford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
