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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 26, Titans 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 10:46, 4th and 3, on Ka'imi Fairbairn — 7.2 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:46 · 4th and 3
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Titans
(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Dome
Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Houston Texans 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:46, Titans +7.2% win probability on one snap.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Elic AyomanorTitansQ1 13:32(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 28 for 33 yards (5-J.Pitre).
5.1pts
Calvin RidleyTitansQ2 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to HOU 40 for 22 yards (24-D.Stingley).
4.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 11 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans145 of 153 plays carry both curves
(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Swing −7.2 for TexansExpected points −3.21 for TexansThe model had Titans 11 points higher than the market did.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:46TEN +7% win prob(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
1st · 13:32HOU +5% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 28 for 33 yards (5-J.Pitre).
2nd · 0:46HOU +5% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to HOU 40 for 22 yards (24-D.Stingley).
4th · 12:49TEN +4% win prob(12:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 36. 24-D.Stingley to TEN 44 for 20 yards (5-E.Ayomanor).
2nd · 0:03TEN +4% win prob(:03) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
3rd · 4:06HOU +4% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins ran ob at TEN 45 for 37 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 47-yard field goal with 4:55 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:55Ka'imi Fairbairn·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.BrinkmanLead never changed again+30–3
2nd13:34Ka'imi Fairbairn·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+30–6
Texans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Titans: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.15Texans: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Titans: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Titans: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Texans: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 45 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Texans’s 66 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Titans 0, Texans 3.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.3% in week 3 against 24.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 37.0% in week 3 against 12.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.3% in week 3 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans24.1%
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 9.1 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.7 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%50 snaps
72Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%50 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%50 snaps
75Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%50 snaps
1Cam WardQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
79Lloyd Cushenberry IIIC · Every snap100%50 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Full-time86%43 snaps
5Elic AyomanorWR · Full-time82%41 snaps
4Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation72%36 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation70%35 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation54%27 snaps
84Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational40%20 snaps
17Chimere DikeWR · Rotational40%20 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Rotational38%19 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational14%7 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Samuel WomackCBJackson SlaterGKevin Winston Jr.SSJC LathamTJohn OjukwuTBryce OliverWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brandon AllenQBJordan MimsRB
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
69Ed IngramG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Aireontae ErseryT · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%71 snaps
60Jake AndrewsC · Every snap100%71 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time85%60 snaps
70Juice ScruggsG · Full-time80%57 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Heavy rotation68%48 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
27Woody MarksRB · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
81Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
21Nick ChubbRB · Rotational42%30 snaps
14Jaylin NoelWR · Situational24%17 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Situational20%14 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Situational14%10 snaps
82Brenden BatesTE · Situational8%6 snaps
57Blake FisherT · Situational7%5 snaps
44British BrooksRB · Situational4%3 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Zion ChildressCBDarrell TaylorDEGraham MertzQBDameon PierceRBCam RobinsonTBraxton BerriosWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:44) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q1 11:44 · Titans · 4th & 5 at HOU 23 · gained nothing · -4.24 EP · −10.0% win probability
143 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 82 yards from the HOU 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
528
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.2451%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4461%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5150%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4260%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
No good8 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Texans 23
Titans0Texans3
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Titans 29
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Titans 44
2nd quarter46 plays
Titans0Texans6
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 25
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 47
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 47
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 14
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Titans 41
The period ended14 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Texans 24
3rd quarter31 plays
No good9 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Titans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Texans 43
The period ended16 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Titans 29
4th quarter42 plays
Titans0Texans12
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 46
Titans0Texans18
Titans0Texans19
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 24
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 31
Titans0Texans25
Titans0Texans26
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 18
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 22
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 2 to the Titans 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
