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2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee Titans

0

Houston TexansWinner

26

HOU -7.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:46, TEN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑TEN ↓
Q3 · 10:46TEN 0 — HOU 6HOU ball · 4th & 3HOU 88%

(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:46TEN +7% win prob(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  2. Q1 · 13:32HOU +5% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 28 for 33 yards (5-J.Pitre).
  3. Q2 · 0:46HOU +5% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to HOU 40 for 22 yards (24-D.Stingley).
  4. Q4 · 12:49TEN +4% win prob(12:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 36. 24-D.Stingley to TEN 44 for 20 yards (5-E.Ayomanor).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:55HOU Field goal

    (4:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q2 · 13:34HOU Field goal

    (13:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 6
  3. Q4 · 15:00HOU Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 12
  4. Q4 · 9:31HOU Touchdown

    (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 81-J.Higgins for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-27-W.Marks has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 19
  5. Q4 · 4:57HOU Touchdown

    (4:57) 27-W.Marks left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansTexans
Offensive plays4566
Total yards175353 (edge)
Yards per play3.95.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.340.15 (edge)
Success rate33%41% (edge)
Dropback rate64%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.490.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.06 (edge)
Third downs2/116/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps820 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers10 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

22/28, 233 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

10/26, 108 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.6 expected points added · -24.5% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

17 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

14 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

4/6 for 79 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Woody MarksRB

4/5 for 50 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 288493:19Missed field goal
2HOUHOU 3111356:52Field goal +3
3TENTEN 34531:44Punt
4HOUHOU 1511604:37Field goal +3
5TENTEN 227143:08Punt
6HOUHOU 40471:33Punt
7TENTEN 10441:03Punt
8HOUHOU 3710255:56Punt
9TENTEN 2311531:48Missed field goal
10HOUHOU 319334:18Missed field goal
11TENTEN 446112:56Punt
12HOUHOU 18141027:51Touchdown +6
13TENTEN 295222:17Interception
14HOUTEN 447443:12Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 27592:38Turnover on downs
16HOUTEN 315411:57Touchdown +7
17TENTEN 14580:56Punt
18HOUHOU 28462:05Punt
19TENTEN 2321:50End of game

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 102 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cam Ward10/26108012-16.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard14644.601.4
Cam Ward22211.002.3
Julius Chestnut100.00-1.5
Chimere Dike1-4-4.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Elic Ayomanor2744030%-7.1
Calvin Ridley2330013%2.4
Tony Pollard3312013%-0.6
Gunnar Helm111204%0.5
Van Jefferson11604%0.2
Chig Okonkwo134013%-1.5
Julius Chestnut01004%-1.0
Tyler Lockett040017%-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cedric Gray870.000
Cody Barton430.000
Jeffery Simmons411.000
Amani Hooker320.000
Roger McCreary230.000
Quandre Diggs130.001
Jalyn Armour-Davis130.000
Xavier Woods220.000
L'Jarius Sneed300.000
Dre'Mont Jones210.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud22/282332028.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks17694.111.3
Nick Chubb13473.60-3.0
C.J. Stroud4112.803.7
Jaylin Noel122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins4679021%3.4
Woody Marks4550118%4.1
Dalton Schultz5630021%-0.6
Jayden Higgins112414%3.1
Christian Kirk3420014%-0.5
Xavier Hutchinson2317011%0.9
Nick Chubb221507%1.2
Jaylin Noel11-204%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kamari Lassiter230.002
Henry To'oTo'o230.000
Danielle Hunter312.000
E.J. Speed220.000
M.J. Stewart310.001
Jalen Pitre310.000
Azeez Al-Shaair210.001
Mario Edwards200.000
Tremon Smith110.000
Derek Stingley Jr.200.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Closing total
39.5
TEN moneyline
+340
HOU moneyline
-440

Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 26 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.