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2025 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Washington Commanders

27

Atlanta FalconsWinner

34

ATL -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 34–27. Biggest swing: Q3 10:05, ATL +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑WAS ↓
Q3 · 10:05WAS 13 — ATL 17ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 70%

(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:05ATL +13% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
  2. Q2 · 10:43ATL +10% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to WAS 26 for 43 yards (2-M.Lattimore). Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined.
  3. Q3 · 5:25WAS +10% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at ATL 48. 0-M.Sainristil to ATL 25 for 23 yards (5-D.London).
  4. Q3 · 12:52ATL +8% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right guard pushed ob at ATL 37 for 22 yards (31-X.Watts).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:49ATL Field goal

    (10:49) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q1 · 0:52ATL Touchdown

    (:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — ATL 10
  3. Q2 · 11:36WAS Touchdown

    (11:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-L.McCaffrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 8:34ATL Touchdown

    (8:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — ATL 17
  5. Q2 · 5:29WAS Field goal

    (5:29) 16-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ** Injury Update: ATL-28-M.Ford has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — ATL 17
  6. Q3 · 10:16WAS Field goal

    (10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — ATL 17
  7. Q3 · 9:30ATL Touchdown

    (9:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — ATL 24
  8. Q3 · 4:26WAS Field goal

    (4:26) 16-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 16 — ATL 24
  9. Q3 · 0:22ATL Touchdown

    (:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 16 — ATL 31
  10. Q4 · 8:53WAS Touchdown

    (8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — ATL 31
  11. Q4 · 2:00ATL Field goal

    (2:00) 39-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — ATL 34
  12. Q4 · 1:33WAS Field goal

    (1:33) 16-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 27 — ATL 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersFalcons
Offensive plays5161
Total yards296438 (edge)
Yards per play5.87.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.130.27 (edge)
Success rate49%51% (edge)
Dropback rate59%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.180.69 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.09
Third downs1/86/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1623 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers11

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

20/26, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

18.3 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

16/27, 156 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

17 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB

7 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

8/10 for 110 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

4/5 for 106 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 3510454:14Field goal +3
2WASWAS 325-61:44Punt
3ATLATL 2715738:13Touchdown +7
4WASWAS 3010704:18Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 377683:04Touchdown +7
6WASATL 417263:03Field goal +3
7ATLATL 328163:33Punt
8WASWAS 87211:29Punt
9ATLATL 25430:22Punt
10WASWAS 299624:48Field goal +3
11ATLATL 244760:47Touchdown +7
12WASWAS 306322:38Interception
13ATLATL 203161:34Interception
14WASATL 25420:51Field goal +3
15ATLATL 289724:08Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 2413736:26Touchdown +8
17ATLATL 2315696:51Field goal +3
18WASWAS 355160:28Field goal +3
19ATLWAS 48401:29End of game

12 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 76 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota16/27156212-0.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Rodriguez Jr.7598.400.2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt7476.702.7
Marcus Mariota22010.002.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.393.00-0.5
Chris Moore199.000.7
Jeremy McNichols231.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel Sr.6672125%8.3
Zach Ertz2421017%1.5
Luke McCaffrey2321113%1.1
Jaylin Lane2318013%-3.8
Tay Martin111404%1.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt221008%0.4
Chris Moore030013%-2.5
Jeremy McNichols12008%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner360.000
Frankie Luvu531.000
Jeremy Reaves440.000
Mike Sainristil340.011
Marshon Lattimore320.000
Quan Martin140.000
Trey Amos220.000
Dorance Armstrong220.000
Daron Payne120.000
Javon Kinlaw300.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix Jr.20/2631321118.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson17754.41-0.4
Tyler Allgeier16513.21-2.5
Michael Penix Jr.420.50-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London810110138%4.0
Bijan Robinson45106019%7.4
Kyle Pitts5570119%7.8
Casey Washington1319012%1.1
Darnell Mooney111504%1.8
Ray-Ray McCloud12-708%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jessie Bates430.000
Xavier Watts240.011
Kaden Elliss320.500
Divine Deablo230.001
Dee Alford410.000
Mike Hughes400.001
David Onyemata220.000
Leonard Floyd130.500
Billy Bowman Jr.300.000
DeAngelo Malone120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
43.5
WAS moneyline
+120
ATL moneyline
-142

Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 61 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
WAS 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Raheem Morris