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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 27 at Atlanta Falcons 34. Final.
Falcons -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 4
Atlanta Falcons 34, Commanders 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:05, 1st and 10, on Bijan Robinson — 13.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:05 · 1st and 10
Bijan Robinson
Falcons
(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Dome
Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Atlanta Falcons 34–27. Biggest swing: Q3 10:05, Falcons +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake LondonFalconsQ2 10:43(10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to WAS 26 for 43 yards (2-M.Lattimore). Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined.
10.1pts
Mike SainristilCommandersQ3 5:25(5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at ATL 48. 0-M.Sainristil to ATL 25 for 23 yards (5-D.London).
9.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Commanders at 1 of 8 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Swing +13.3 for FalconsExpected points +4.47 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:05ATL +13% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
2nd · 10:43ATL +10% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to WAS 26 for 43 yards (2-M.Lattimore). Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 5:25WAS +10% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at ATL 48. 0-M.Sainristil to ATL 25 for 23 yards (5-D.London).
3rd · 12:52ATL +8% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right guard pushed ob at ATL 37 for 22 yards (31-X.Watts).
1st · 14:20ATL +8% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to WAS 34 for 26 yards (23-T.Amos).
4th · 8:53ATL +8% win prob(8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
John Parker Romo's 38-yard field goal with 10:49 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:49John Parker Romo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+30–3
1st0:52Drake London·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr.from Michael Penix Jr.+70–10
2nd11:36Luke McCaffrey·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+77–10
4th8:53Deebo Samuel Sr.·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · two-point good+824–31
4th2:00John Parker Romo·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+324–34
4th1:33Matt Gay·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+327–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryFalcons
Commanders0–8Falcons
296Total yards438
5.8Yards per play7.2
49%Success rate51%
13%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays8
16First downs23
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Commanders: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.27Falcons: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.69Falcons: +0.69 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 51 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Falcons’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Falcons 6.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's blitz rate sent, 56.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.7% in week 3 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 45.5% in week 3 against 20.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Falcons16.7%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.7%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 37.7% and 1.5 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Penix pass+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q3 10:05 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 24 · gained 69 · +4.47 EP · +11.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 76 yards from the ATL 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
52%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34+0.2238%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2068%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.4050%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3443%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Commanders0Falcons3
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Commanders 14
Punt5 plays
Commanders0Falcons9
Commanders0Falcons10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Commanders 5
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 33
2nd quarter47 plays
Commanders6Falcons10
Commanders7Falcons10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 5
Commanders7Falcons16
Commanders7Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Commanders 14
Commanders10Falcons17
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 25
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Commanders 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 35
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 28
3rd quarter42 plays
Commanders13Falcons17
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Falcons 29
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Commanders13Falcons23
Commanders13Falcons24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Commanders 7
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Falcons 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 36
Commanders16Falcons24
Field goal4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 23
Commanders16Falcons30
Commanders16Falcons31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Commanders 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Commanders22Falcons31
Commanders24Falcons31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Falcons 22
Commanders24Falcons34
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Commanders 5
Commanders27Falcons34
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Falcons 24
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -2.5
Closing total
43.5
Commanders moneyline
+120
Falcons moneyline
-142
Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 61 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Raheem Morris
2nd · 0:07
ATL +8% win prob
(:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, recovered by WAS-34-A.Hamilton at WAS 24. 34-A.Hamilton to WAS 27 for 3 yards (22-C.Phillips).
3rd · 10:16ATL +7% win prob(10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
