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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 37, Jets 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:27, 1st and 10, on Breece Hall — 15.3 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:27 · 1st and 10
Breece Hall
Cowboys
(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
Jets closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 37–22. Biggest swing: Q2 2:27, Cowboys +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan FlournoyCowboysQ1 6:34(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
13.1pts
Jake FergusonCowboysQ2 11:48(11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.29 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Jets at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 1 giveaway.
(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
Swing −15.3 for JetsExpected points −4.13 for JetsThe model had Cowboys 4 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:27DAL +15% win prob(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
1st · 6:34NYJ +13% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
2nd · 11:48NYJ +10% win prob(11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:20NYJ +7% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 40-H.Luepke to NYJ 37 for 10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
2nd · 1:20NYJ +7% win prob(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 16 for 46 yards (22-T.Adams). Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 6:09NYJ +7% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds to DAL 33 for 10 yards (7-T.Diggs).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Ferguson's 26-yard touchdown catch with 11:48 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:46Nick Folk·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
1st5:00Brandon Aubrey·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–3
2nd11:48Jake Ferguson·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+69–3
2nd11:40Cowboys·1 pt1 pointthe league feed did not file the play that scored itthe league feed did not file the play that scored it+110–3
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Cowboys: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Cowboys: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.09Jets: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Cowboys: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.22Jets: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 56 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Jets’s 73 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 6, Jets 3.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's play-action rate, 42.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 31.3% in week 3.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 4.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +5.4 pts, is past their previous high of +2.6 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Jets9.1%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteDAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.4%, 14.9 points above their season mean of 27.5% and 2.0 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
Q1 6:34 · Cowboys · 3rd & 5 at DAL 40 · gained 40 · +3.85 EP · +14.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 95 yards from the DAL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
46%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1980%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3863%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2950%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0556%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.6713%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.9543%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2457%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Cowboys0Jets3
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Cowboys 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Cowboys3Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Jets 16
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Cowboys 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 39
2nd quarter56 plays
Cowboys9Jets3
Cowboys10Jets3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 45
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Cowboys 23
Cowboys16Jets3
Cowboys17Jets3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Jets 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 24
Cowboys23Jets3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Jets 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cowboys 43
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 26
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Cowboys 47
Cowboys29Jets3
Cowboys30Jets3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Jets 43
Cowboys30Jets6
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Cowboys 24
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Cowboys 44
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 32
Cowboys30Jets12
Cowboys30Jets14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys36Jets14
Cowboys37Jets14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 4
The period ended1 play
Cowboys37Jets20
Cowboys37Jets22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
