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2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

37

New York Jets

22

NYJ -1.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 37–22. Biggest swing: Q2 2:27, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑DAL ↓
Q2 · 2:27DAL 10 — NYJ 3NYJ ball · 1st & 10DAL 56%

(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:27DAL +15% win prob(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
  2. Q1 · 6:34NYJ +13% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
  3. Q2 · 11:48NYJ +10% win prob(11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 14:20NYJ +7% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 40-H.Luepke to NYJ 37 for 10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:46NYJ Field goal

    (7:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — NYJ 3
  2. Q1 · 5:00DAL Field goal

    (5:00) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — NYJ 3
  3. Q2 · 11:48DAL Touchdown

    (11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — NYJ 3
  4. Q2 · 1:02DAL Touchdown

    (1:02) 33-J.Williams right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — NYJ 3
  5. Q2 · 0:19DAL Touchdown

    (:19) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-71-N.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: DAL 23 — NYJ 3
  6. Q3 · 4:40DAL Touchdown

    (4:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — NYJ 3
  7. Q3 · 1:01NYJ Field goal

    (1:01) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — NYJ 6
  8. Q4 · 7:59NYJ Touchdown

    (7:59) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 7-J.Fields pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — NYJ 14
  9. Q4 · 4:34DAL Touchdown

    (4:34) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 37 — NYJ 14
  10. Q4 · 1:49NYJ Touchdown

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DAL 37 — NYJ 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysJets
Offensive plays5673
Total yards417 (edge)383
Yards per play7.4 (edge)5.2
Expected points added / play0.36 (edge)0.01
Success rate48%49% (edge)
Dropback rate59%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.41 (edge)0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.29 (edge)-0.22
Third downs6/12 (edge)7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps2126 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

32/46, 283 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

18/29, 237 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Javonte WilliamsRB

16 att, 135 yds, 1 TD

7.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

14 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Ryan FlournoyWR

6/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

6/10 for 71 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 2714597:17Field goal +3
2DALDAL 358492:46Field goal +3
3NYJNYJ 267312:07Punt
4DALDAL 1014856:10Touchdown +7
5NYJNYJ 405-191:58Punt
6DALDAL 29411:38Punt
7NYJNYJ 338695:46Fumble
8DALDAL 98901:21Touchdown +7
9NYJNYJ 22520:28Punt
10DALDAL 333670:14Touchdown +6
11NYJNYJ 25200:15End of half
12DALDAL 36571:36Punt
13NYJNYJ 245102:32Punt
14DALDAL 147123:02Punt
15NYJNYJ 336202:34Turnover on downs
16DALDAL 473530:43Touchdown +7
17NYJNYJ 267393:36Field goal +3
18DALDAL 35541:11Punt
19NYJNYJ 315251:01Turnover on downs
20DALDAL 29431:36Punt
21NYJNYJ 2211754:13Touchdown +8
22DALNYJ 4610463:25Touchdown +7
23NYJNYJ 3013722:49Touchdown +8
24DALNYJ 45401:42End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott18/2923740111.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams161358.417.4
Dak Prescott7284.000.8
Ryan Flournoy2105.00-0.0
Jaydon Blue471.80-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ryan Flournoy69114032%5.5
George Pickens2457114%4.5
Jake Ferguson7949232%2.4
Hunter Luepke111004%2.1
Javonte Williams12417%-0.1
Luke Schoonmaker12307%-0.7
Jalen Tolbert01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shemar James870.000
Juanyeh Thomas550.000
Donovan Wilson350.000
DaRon Bland610.000
Kenneth Murray, Jr.140.001
Trevon Diggs130.000
Marist Liufau310.000
Reddy Steward120.000
Donovan Ezeiruaku120.000
James Houston211.500

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields32/462832053.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall141138.10-2.2
Justin Fields7263.70-1.1
Isaiah Davis155.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson61071123%4.6
Mason Taylor91267027%3.9
Breece Hall4542011%4.3
Josh Reynolds342909%3.1
Isaiah Davis342809%0.2
Jeremy Ruckert442809%0.9
Arian Smith111402%1.0
Allen Lazard12305%-1.1
Andrew Beck12115%-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood520.000
Brandon Stephens510.002
Tony Adams320.001
Malachi Moore410.000
Francisco Mauigoa310.000
Braiden McGregor121.000
Quinnen Williams210.000
Sauce Gardner200.001
Micheal Clemons110.000
Isaiah Oliver110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Closing total
48.5
DAL moneyline
-105
NYJ moneyline
-115

Jets closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 59 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
82°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
DAL 7 days · NYJ 6 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Aaron Glenn