2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field

Denver BroncosWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -3.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Eagles closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04DEN 21 — PHI 17PHI ball · 2nd & 10DEN 75%

(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04DEN +25% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
Q4 · 3:28PHI +15% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 37 for 16 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q2 · 8:12PHI +15% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q4 · 8:17PHI +14% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 11 for 34 yards (53-Z.Baun).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:53DEN Field goal
(6:53) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — PHI 0
Q1 · 0:32PHI Field goal
(:32) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — PHI 3
Q2 · 7:24PHI Touchdown
(7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — PHI 10
Q3 · 13:32PHI Touchdown
(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — PHI 17
Q4 · 13:16DEN Touchdown
(13:16) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — PHI 17
Q4 · 7:43DEN Touchdown
(7:43) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 1-E.Engram for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DEN 18 — PHI 17
Q4 · 1:14DEN Field goal
(1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 21 — PHI 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Eagles
Offensive plays	71	54
Total yards	360 (edge)	303
Yards per play	5.1	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	49% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	62%	83%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	5/16 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

23/38, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

24/39, 242 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

20 att, 79 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

6 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

8/10 for 114 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

8/10 for 99 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 31	5	6	1:40	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 20	4	3	1:12	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 31	12	27	5:19	Field goal +3
4	PHI	PHI 17	13	70	6:20	Field goal +3
5	DEN	DEN 29	8	29	3:37	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 10	8	71	4:32	Touchdown +7
7	DEN	DEN 19	6	22	2:31	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 14	7	27	2:31	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 20	6	21	0:59	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 11	4	4	0:27	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 44	4	-3	0:44	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 5	1	0	0:08	End of half
13	PHI	PHI 26	6	74	1:37	Touchdown +7
14	DEN	DEN 18	11	58	6:05	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 9	6	23	2:01	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 20	4	8	1:34	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 44	4	-11	1:05	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 36	11	62	4:27	Touchdown +7
19	PHI	PHI 28	5	4	2:03	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 28	7	84	3:32	Touchdown +8
21	PHI	PHI 43	5	11	2:36	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 32	11	46	3:49	Field goal +3
23	PHI	PHI 26	7	27	1:11	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 84 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	24/39	242	1	0	2	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	20	79	4.0	1	-1.7
Bo Nix	3	22	7.3	0	2.4
RJ Harvey	4	12	3.0	0	-0.7
Marvin Mims Jr.	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Adam Prentice	1	8	8.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	8	10	99	0	28%	7.8
Troy Franklin	3	5	35	0	14%	1.2
Evan Engram	4	6	33	1	17%	1.0
RJ Harvey	3	3	18	0	8%	3.4
Tyler Badie	1	2	16	0	6%	0.5
Trent Sherfield	1	2	15	0	6%	0.1
Adam Trautman	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Marvin Mims Jr.	2	5	10	0	14%	-3.5
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0
Nate Adkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	4	3	0.0	1
Alex Singleton	4	2	1.0	0
Pat Surtain II	5	1	0.0	2
Riley Moss	2	3	0.0	1
Ja'Quan McMillian	3	1	1.0	1
Nik Bonitto	3	1	2.5	0
Jonah Elliss	2	1	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Jahdae Barron	1	1	0.0	1
Eyioma Uwazurike	2	0	1.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	23/38	280	2	0	6	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	6	30	5.0	-0.1
AJ Dillon	2	12	6.0	0.4
Jalen Hurts	2	3	1.5	-0.0
Will Shipley	1	0	0.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	8	10	114	0	27%	6.4
Saquon Barkley	3	3	58	1	8%	3.9
A.J. Brown	5	8	43	0	22%	0.5
Jahan Dotson	1	3	24	0	8%	-0.1
Dallas Goedert	3	9	19	1	24%	-1.5
Grant Calcaterra	2	2	18	0	5%	0.8
Will Shipley	1	2	4	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zack Baun	7	5	1.0	0
Jihaad Campbell	4	5	0.0	0
Quinyon Mitchell	5	2	0.0	1
Andrew Mukuba	4	2	0.0	0
Kelee Ringo	6	0	0.0	0
Cooper DeJean	4	1	0.0	1
Jalen Carter	1	3	0.0	0
Moro Ojomo	2	2	0.0	0
Azeez Ojulari	1	2	0.0	0
Cameron Latu	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3.5
Closing total: 44.5
DEN moneyline: +180
PHI moneyline: -218

Eagles closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: DEN 6 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Nick Sirianni