For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Broncos174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
Swing −24.8 for EaglesExpected points −1.62 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04DEN +25% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
4th · 3:28PHI +15% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 37 for 16 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
2nd · 8:12PHI +15% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards (21-R.Moss).
4th · 8:17PHI +14% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 11 for 34 yards (53-Z.Baun).
4th · 0:15PHI +13% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 2-J.Dotson ran ob at DEN 29 for 24 yards (2-P.Surtain).
4th · 2:27PHI +12% win prob(2:27) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to PHI 28 for 1 yard (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on PHI-53-Z.Baun, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 28.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan Engram's 11-yard touchdown catch with 7:43 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:53Wil Lutz·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
1st0:32Jake Elliott·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Adomitis+33–3
4th7:43Evan Engram·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix · two-point goodLead never changed again+818–17
4th1:14Wil Lutz·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+321–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryEagles
Broncos7–2Eagles
360Total yards303
5.1Yards per play5.6
49%Success rate39%
31%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
21First downs13
2Sacks taken6
1Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.00Eagles: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Broncos: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.01Eagles: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 71 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Eagles’s 54 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Eagles 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +18.1 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of −0.6 pts in week 1.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 4.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 6.9% in week 4 against 37.8% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.9% in week 4 against 22.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.7% in week 4 against 18.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Eagles18.2%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 18.1 pts, 20.5 points above their season mean of -2.4 pts and 2.3 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
Q4 0:04 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at DEN 29 · gained nothing · -1.62 EP · −26.7% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 90 yards from the PHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1464%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1087%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2667%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0583%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 23
Broncos3Eagles0
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Eagles 34
Broncos3Eagles3
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Broncos 12
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Eagles 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Broncos3Eagles9
Broncos3Eagles10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Broncos 2
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 40
The period ended11 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Broncos 46
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 15
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Broncos3Eagles16
Broncos3Eagles17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Broncos 47
Punt13 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Eagles 35
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 32
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 28
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Eagles 38
4th quarter54 plays
Broncos9Eagles17
Broncos10Eagles17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 2
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Broncos16Eagles17
Broncos18Eagles17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Eagles 11
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Broncos 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Broncos21Eagles17
Field goal18 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Eagles 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Broncos 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
