For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

44

Baltimore Ravens

10

HOU -2.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓

Houston Texans 44–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:04, HOU +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑HOU ↓
Q2 · 12:04HOU 7 — BAL 3HOU ball · 3rd & 5HOU 77%

(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:04HOU +7% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
  2. Q1 · 4:18BAL +6% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 16 for 29 yards (4-K.Lassiter) [45-E.Speed]. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, declined.
  3. Q1 · 14:12BAL +6% win prob(14:12) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 40 for 24 yards (24-M.Starks; 27-T.Tampa).
  4. Q2 · 11:23BAL +6% win prob(11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:29HOU Touchdown

    (9:29) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — BAL 0
  2. Q1 · 2:01BAL Field goal

    (2:01) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — BAL 3
  3. Q2 · 11:23HOU Field goal

    (11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 3
  4. Q2 · 5:40HOU Touchdown

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — BAL 3
  5. Q2 · 0:31HOU Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — BAL 3
  6. Q3 · 11:40HOU Touchdown

    (11:40) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb right guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 31 — BAL 3
  7. Q3 · 5:59HOU Field goal

    (5:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 34 — BAL 3
  8. Q3 · 2:48BAL Touchdown

    (2:48) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 34 — BAL 10
  9. Q4 · 13:53HOU Touchdown

    (13:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 14-J.Noel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 41 — BAL 10
  10. Q4 · 10:34HOU Field goal

    (10:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 44 — BAL 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansRavens
Offensive plays6440
Total yards419 (edge)207
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.2
Expected points added / play0.39 (edge)-0.34
Success rate61% (edge)38%
Dropback rate55%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.63 (edge)-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.29
Third downs7/12 (edge)3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)11
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

23/27, 244 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Cooper RushQB

14/20, 179 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

11 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

15 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/5 for 72 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Christian KirkWR

4/4 for 64 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 3312675:36Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 2513717:26Field goal +3
3HOUHOU 3111475:40Field goal +3
4BALBAL 255-141:56Punt
5HOUBAL 417513:46Touchdown +7
6BALBAL 36561:36Punt
7HOUHOU 239633:32Touchdown +7
8BALBAL 294290:28Missed field goal
9BALBAL 345122:11Interception
10HOUBAL 384381:16Touchdown +7
11BALBAL 20582:09Punt
12HOUHOU 297323:31Field goal +3
13BALBAL 297703:12Touchdown +7
14HOUHOU 359633:53Touchdown +7
15BALBAL 94101:38Interception
16HOUBAL 21451:40Field goal +3
17BALBAL 35531:31Punt
18HOUHOU 15541:32Punt
19BALBAL 333121:20Interception
20HOUHOU 1610496:07End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 71 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud23/2724440218.2
Davis Mills2/4230000.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb11615.512.1
C.J. Stroud13030.003.0
Woody Marks7243.40-3.0
Dameon Pierce7213.00-0.4
British Brooks2157.503.7
Nico Collins188.000.5
Jaylin Noel155.000.2
Davis Mills331.00-2.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk4464013%4.7
Dalton Schultz5660019%5.9
Nico Collins4552116%5.2
Jayden Higgins4432013%1.7
Brenden Bates222306%2.6
Xavier Hutchinson3318210%3.9
Jaylin Noel2313110%1.6
Harrison Bryant12506%-1.2
Nick Chubb01003%-0.9
Woody Marks01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed510.000
M.J. Stewart230.000
Henry To'oTo'o320.000
Jalen Pitre310.022
Kamari Lassiter310.011
Azeez Al-Shaair220.001
Will Anderson Jr.120.000
Calen Bullock200.000
Mario Edwards111.000
Dare Ogunbowale110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cooper Rush14/20179031-7.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry15332.21-4.6
Keaton Mitchell382.70-0.5
Justice Hill133.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers5572025%2.4
DeAndre Hopkins2246010%3.3
Mark Andrews2322015%-3.2
Isaiah Likely111205%2.2
Charlie Kolar111005%1.1
Justice Hill129010%-0.3
Keaton Mitchell11505%-0.2
Zaire Mitchell-Paden11305%-0.2
Derrick Henry01005%-6.3
Rashod Bateman030015%-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Teddye Buchanan770.000
Malaki Starks370.000
Trenton Simpson361.000
T.J. Tampa330.000
Reuben Lowery140.000
Nate Wiggins320.000
Keyon Martin410.000
Brent Urban140.000
Basil Okoye220.000
Travis Jones110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Closing total
41.5
HOU moneyline
-148
BAL moneyline
+124

Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 54 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
78°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
HOU 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs John Harbaugh