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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 5
It turned at Q2 12:04, 3rd and 5, on C.J. Stroud — 7.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 44–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:04, Ravens +7.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:04 · 3rd and 5
C.J. Stroud
Ravens
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
7.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Xavier Hutchinson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:29 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Xavier Hutchinson5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. StroudLead never changed again+77–0Ka'imi Fairbairn34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+344–1010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryRavens
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Ravens’s 40 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Ravens 2.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate, 37.1%, is past their previous high of 27.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected, +5.7 pts, is past their previous high of +4.3 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.1% in week 4 against 9.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.9 pts in week 4 against −16.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 10.0% in week 4 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.8% in week 4 against 43.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Texans5.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.9 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 64 snaps
Ravens-16.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 40 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans51.0%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 51 early downs
Ravens43.8%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 32 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Texans37.1%off script — faked the run · +14.3 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Ravens28.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Texans33.3%right on their number · +9.5 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±24.9 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 57%
Tendencies room →Texans23.8%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens34.3%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Texans9.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens11.4%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
HOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.1%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 2.1 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
23/27, 244 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.2 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
14/20, 179 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-7.9 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
C.J. Stroud banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 28.8 | +11.9 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 23/27, 244 yd, 4 TD · 1 car, 30 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.8 | +8.8 | 67% | 71% | 10% | 7% | 3/3, 18 yd, 2 TD |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.0 | +5.5 | 57% | 71% | 16% | 25% | 1 car, 8 yd · 4/5, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | +4.5 | 84% | 100% | 25% | 26% | 5/5, 72 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB | 12.1 | +1.3 | 34% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 11 car, 61 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | +1.3 | 59% | 77% | 19% | 17% | 5/6, 60 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.9 | 49% | 57% | 13% | 17% | 4/4, 64 yd |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.5 | 30% | 34% | 10% | 8% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/3, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.3 | −3.7 | 65% | 48% | 5% | 0% | 15 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.6 | 56% | 49% | 13% | 10% | 4/4, 32 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +3.9 | 26% | 33% | 10% | 14% | 2/2, 46 yd |
| Brenden BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.8 | 19% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 23 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.9 | 58% | 71% | 15% | 19% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Woody MarksRB | 2.4 | −4.2 | 39% | 49% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 24 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 2.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 2.2 | −1.0 | 30% | 48% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.6 | 53% | 52% | 5% | 7% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 2.1 | −0.8 | 23% | 17% | 0% | — | 7 car, 21 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.4 | 47% | 33% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| British BrooksRB | 1.5 | +0.8 | 16% | 3% | 0% | — | 2 car, 15 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 27% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 28% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | 1.2 | −0.8 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 23 yd · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | 1.2 | −4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 179 yd, 3 INT |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.1 | 81% | 81% | 15% | 34% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devontez WalkerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Q2 12:04 · Texans · 3rd & 5 at BAL 24 · lost 8 · -2.22 EP · −8.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 77 yards from the HOU 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans6
Ravens0Texans7Ravens0Texans7Ravens3Texans10Ravens3Texans16Ravens3Texans17Ravens3Texans23Ravens3Texans24Ravens3Texans30Ravens3Texans31Ravens3Texans34Ravens3Texans34Ravens9Texans34Ravens10Texans40Ravens10Texans41Ravens10Texans44Ravens10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/27 | 244 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +18.2 |
| Davis Mills | 2/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 13% | +4.7 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.J. Speed | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 14/20 | 179 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_05_HOU_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 54 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Woody Marks | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| British Brooks | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| 19% |
| +5.9 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 16% | +5.2 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 13% | +1.7 |
| Brenden Bates | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6% | +2.6 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 10% | +3.9 |
| Jaylin Noel | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 10% | +1.6 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Edwards | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 | −4.6 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 25% | +2.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 10% | +3.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 15% | −3.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +2.2 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −6.3 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddye Buchanan | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Tampa | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reuben Lowery | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyon Martin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Okoye | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
