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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 44, Ravens 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:04, 3rd and 5, on C.J. Stroud — 7.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:04 · 3rd and 5
C.J. Stroud
Ravens
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Houston Texans 44–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:04, Ravens +7.1% win probability on one snap.
7.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nico CollinsTexansQ1 14:12(14:12) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 40 for 24 yards (24-M.Starks; 27-T.Tampa).
6.2pts
DeAndre HopkinsRavensQ1 4:18(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 16 for 29 yards (4-K.Lassiter) [45-E.Speed]. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, declined.
6.5pts
What separated them
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Texans146 of 153 plays carry both curves
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Swing +7.1 for RavensExpected points +2.22 for RavensThe model had Ravens 11 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:04HOU +7% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
1st · 4:18BAL +6% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 16 for 29 yards (4-K.Lassiter) [45-E.Speed]. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 14:12BAL +6% win prob(14:12) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 40 for 24 yards (24-M.Starks; 27-T.Tampa).
2nd · 11:23BAL +6% win prob(11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
2nd · 14:55BAL +5% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to BAL 40 for 12 yards (40-T.Buchanan; 30-R.Lowery).
2nd · 5:40BAL +5% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Xavier Hutchinson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:29 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th10:34Ka'imi Fairbairn·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+344–10
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryRavens
Texans8–1Ravens
419Total yards207
6.5Yards per play5.2
61%Success rate38%
58%Third-down rate38%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays2
23First downs11
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers3
The read
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Texans: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.34Ravens: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.63Texans: +0.63 expected points added per play
−0.38Ravens: −0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.29Ravens: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Ravens’s 40 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Ravens 2.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.1% in week 4 against 9.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.9 pts in week 4 against −16.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 10.0% in week 4 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.8% in week 4 against 43.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens11.4%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.1%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 2.1 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive
69Ed IngramG · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Aireontae ErseryT · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Juice ScruggsG · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Jake AndrewsC · Every snap100%70 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Full-time80%56 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
81Jayden HigginsWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Rotational49%34 snaps
57Blake FisherT · Rotational46%32 snaps
27Woody MarksRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
21Nick ChubbRB · Rotational34%24 snaps
14Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational23%16 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Situational20%14 snaps
82Brenden BatesTE · Situational19%13 snaps
44British BrooksRB · Situational16%11 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Zion ChildressCBChristian HarrisOLBGraham MertzQBJarrett KingstonTTrent BrownTBraxton BerriosWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Q2 12:04 · Texans · 3rd & 5 at BAL 24 · lost 8 · -2.22 EP · −8.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 77 yards from the HOU 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
52%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.5163%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.5650%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.3578%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2250%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.5040%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Texans6Ravens0
Texans7Ravens0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Ravens 4
Texans7Ravens3
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Texans 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 45
2nd quarter49 plays
Texans10Ravens3
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Ravens 20
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 27
Texans16Ravens3
Texans17Ravens3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 3
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 37
Texans23Ravens3
Texans24Ravens3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Ravens 10
No good7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Texans 37
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 46
Texans30Ravens3
Texans31Ravens3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 27
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 28
Texans34Ravens3
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Ravens 38
Texans34Ravens9
Texans34Ravens10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Texans 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 44
4th quarter36 plays
Texans40Ravens10
Texans41Ravens10
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 19
Texans44Ravens10
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 16
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 38
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 24
Intercepted3 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Ravens 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
