For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Chiefs154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +45.3 for JaguarsExpected points +12.66 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 12 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:36KC +45% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:01JAX +26% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).
4th · 0:30JAX +25% win prob(:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:38JAX +20% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook (27-C.Conner) at KC -5. Touchback. PENALTY on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at KC 14 - No Play.
4th · 13:12KC +16% win prob(13:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDuffie [56-G.Karlaftis] at JAX 21. 22-T.McDuffie to JAX 19 for 2 yards (1-T.Etienne). ** Injury Update: JAX-12-T.Hunter has returned to the game.
3rd · 8:47JAX +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:30 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:07Travis Kelce·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–0
4th0:30Trevor Lawrence·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+728–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryJaguars
Chiefs8–0Jaguars
476Total yards319
7.6Yards per play5.9
65%Success rate48%
56%Third-down rate56%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
26First downs17
0Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.15Jaguars: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.19Jaguars: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Jaguars 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's play-action rate, 8.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 18.8% in week 4.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +15.4 pts, is past their previous high of +11.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 17.1% in week 4 against 39.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars8.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteJAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 21.8% and 2.5 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Kingsley SuamataiaG · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Josh SimmonsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%64 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time80%51 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Heavy rotation77%49 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation66%42 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−42% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:36 · Chiefs · 2nd & goal at JAX 3 · gained nothing · -12.66 EP · −42.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 97 yards from the KC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
56%
Yards
795
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3566%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2858%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2970%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2144%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.7433%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 38
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Jaguars 46
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 22
Chiefs6Jaguars0
Chiefs7Jaguars0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Chiefs 7
2nd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs13Jaguars0
Chiefs14Jaguars0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Jaguars 9
Chiefs14Jaguars6
Chiefs14Jaguars7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Chiefs 3
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 8 to the Jaguars 24
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Chiefs14Jaguars13
Chiefs14Jaguars14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Chiefs 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Chiefs14Jaguars20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Jaguars 3
Chiefs14Jaguars21
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Jaguars 44
4th quarter56 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Jaguars 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 15
Chiefs20Jaguars21
Chiefs21Jaguars21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 5
Chiefs21Jaguars24
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Chiefs 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs27Jaguars24
Chiefs28Jaguars24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Jaguars 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chiefs28Jaguars30
Chiefs28Jaguars31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
