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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 6, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 5
It turned at Q3 2:36, 2nd and 3, on Devin Lloyd — 45.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:36, Jaguars +45.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:36 · 2nd and 3
Devin Lloyd
Jaguars
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
45.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 65% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 7 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:30 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryJaguars
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Jaguars 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's play-action rate, 8.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected, +15.4 pts, is past their previous high of +11.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
JAX's sack or hit rate, 8.7%, is past their previous low of 9.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate, 65.9%, is past their previous high of 57.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 17.1% in week 4 against 39.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs15.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.6 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 63 snaps
Jaguars2.9 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 81%
Tendencies room →Chiefs68.5%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 54 early downs
Jaguars65.9%leaned — passed early · +9.3 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs15.2%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Jaguars8.6%off script — dropped back clean · −13.3 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−2.48× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
Jaguars25.0%inside their normal wobble · −22.6 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 70%
Tendencies room →Chiefs31.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars39.1%inside their normal wobble · +9.1 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Chiefs20.0%inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars8.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −4.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
JAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 21.8% and 2.5 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
29/41, 318 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.7 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/25, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
4/6 for 80 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kareem Hunt banked 9.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/41, 318 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 26.2 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/25, 221 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 54 yd, 2 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 19.1 | +4.2 | 80% | 80% | 20% | 8% | 7/8, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB | 18.7 | +9.5 | 33% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 49 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +1.4 | 93% | 97% | 24% | 44% | 4/6, 80 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +0.6 | 45% | 50% | 13% | 33% | 3/5, 90 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −7.2 | 77% | 80% | 23% | 30% | 1 car, 9 yd · 6/9, 42 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +3.9 | 26% | 26% | 12% | 6% | 2/3, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +4.3 | 67% | 74% | 12% | 23% | 3/3, 64 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | −3.7 | 59% | 54% | 16% | 1% | 12 car, 49 yd · 3/4, 9 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 8.8 | −5.2 | 52% | 54% | 20% | 30% | 4/8, 48 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 8.6 | +0.8 | 62% | 65% | 8% | 0% | 7 car, 36 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB | 6.6 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −2.8 | 66% | 61% | 8% | 2% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −4.1 | 66% | 69% | 16% | 16% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.8 | 38% | 31% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 2.1 | −1.2 | 21% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 34% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 60% | 69% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.0 | — | 22% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jason BrownleeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:36 · Chiefs · 2nd & goal at JAX 3 · gained nothing · -12.66 EP · −42.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 97 yards from the KC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Jaguars0Chiefs7Jaguars0Chiefs13Jaguars0Chiefs14Jaguars0Chiefs14Jaguars6Chiefs14Jaguars7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs14Jaguars13Chiefs14Jaguars14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs14Jaguars20Chiefs14Jaguars21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs20Jaguars21Chiefs21Jaguars21Chiefs21Jaguars24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Chiefs27Jaguars24Chiefs28Jaguars24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs28Jaguars30Chiefs28Jaguars31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 13% | +6.4 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chamarri Conner | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/25 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_05_KC_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 59 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 36 |
| 5.1 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| +3.2 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 20% | +2.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 23% | +0.6 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −11.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 24% | +3.5 |
| Travis Hunter | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 12% | +4.0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 12% | −3.4 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 16% | −0.8 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 16% | −3.2 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foye Oluokun | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Wingard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DaVon Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rayuan Lane III | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
