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2025 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 6, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

28

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

31

KC -3.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:36, KC +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑KC ↓
Q3 · 2:36KC 14 — JAX 20KC ball · 2nd & 3KC 76%

(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:36KC +45% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:01JAX +26% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).
  3. Q4 · 0:30JAX +25% win prob(:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q4 · 0:38JAX +20% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook (27-C.Conner) at KC -5. Touchback. PENALTY on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at KC 14 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:07KC Touchdown

    (4:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 10:49KC Touchdown

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 2:43JAX Touchdown

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 7
  4. Q3 · 8:47JAX Touchdown

    (8:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 14
  5. Q3 · 2:36JAX Touchdown

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 21
  6. Q4 · 12:25KC Touchdown

    (12:25) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 21 — JAX 21
  7. Q4 · 8:13JAX Field goal

    (8:13) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: KC 21 — JAX 24
  8. Q4 · 1:48KC Touchdown

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 28 — JAX 24
  9. Q4 · 0:30JAX Touchdown

    (:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 28 — JAX 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsJaguars
Offensive plays6354
Total yards476 (edge)319
Yards per play7.6 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.19 (edge)0.03
Success rate65% (edge)48%
Dropback rate73%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.120.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)-0.19
Third downs5/95/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)17
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/41, 318 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

18/25, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

10 att, 54 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyquan ThorntonWR

3/5 for 90 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian Thomas Jr.WR

4/6 for 80 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 30581:36Punt
2KCKC 97503:53Punt
3JAXJAX 144131:02Punt
4KCKC 2810874:27Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 3910595:26Fumble
6KCKC 36972:52Touchdown +7
7JAXJAX 3015628:06Touchdown +7
8KCKC 35521:44Punt
9JAXJAX 83200:54End of half
10KCKC 33581:45Punt
11JAXJAX 138824:35Touchdown +7
12KCKC 3212656:21Defensive touchdown
13KCKC 2010513:28Punt
14JAXJAX 12230:48Interception
15KCJAX 193190:43Touchdown +7
16JAXJAX 419204:12Field goal +3
17KCKC 1414866:23Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 409521:22Touchdown +7
19KCKC 175110:23End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 97 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes29/413181102.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Patrick Mahomes66010.014.7
Kareem Hunt7497.022.8
Isiah Pacheco7365.100.6
Xavier Worthy199.000.9
Brashard Smith144.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyquan Thornton3590013%6.4
Travis Kelce7861120%3.2
Marquise Brown4848020%2.4
Xavier Worthy6942023%0.6
Brashard Smith333208%1.3
Isiah Pacheco332008%1.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster231708%-11.7
Kareem Hunt11803%-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton650.001
Chamarri Conner430.000
Bryan Cook330.000
Jaylen Watson401.000
Charles Omenihu311.000
Leo Chenal220.500
Trent McDuffie120.013
Christian Roland-Wallace120.000
Jerry Tillery120.000
Drue Tranquill120.001

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence18/25221113-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trevor Lawrence10545.422.3
Travis Etienne12494.101.4
Bhayshul Tuten461.50-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas Jr.4680024%3.5
Travis Hunter3364012%4.0
Brenton Strange112204%1.3
Parker Washington2316112%-3.4
Dyami Brown2415016%-0.8
Travis Etienne349016%-3.2
Johnny Mundt11704%0.2
Bhayshul Tuten11504%-0.0
Hunter Long11304%-0.4
Tim Patrick01004%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun770.000
Eric Murray530.001
Tyson Campbell430.001
Andrew Wingard430.000
DaVon Hamilton130.000
Montaric Brown300.001
Rayuan Lane III210.000
Travis Hunter200.001
Dennis Gardeck110.000
Antonio Johnson200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3.5
Closing total
45.5
KC moneyline
-198
JAX moneyline
+164

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 59 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
KC 8 days · JAX 8 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Liam Coen