For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Raiders156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.6 for ColtsExpected points +2.25 for ColtsThe model had Raiders 12 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:38IND +8% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:21IND +7% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to LV 21 for 19 yards (36-K.Kelly).
1st · 4:54LV +7% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at IND 14 for -11 yards (94-T.Lewis).
2nd · 9:38LV +7% win prob(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.
2nd · 3:59LV +6% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 18-J.Bech INTERCEPTED by 97-L.Latu (90-G.Stewart) at IND 12. 97-L.Latu to IND 12 for no gain (70-S.Forsythe).
2nd · 12:30IND +5% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 1-J.Downs to LV 11 for 12 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
1st · 11:14
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Warren's 11-yard touchdown catch with 11:38 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:24Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
2nd11:38Tyler Warren·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel JonesLead never changed again+73–7
4th11:43Daniel Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–40
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryColts
Raiders0–8Colts
296Total yards319
4.6Yards per play5.2
49%Success rate51%
57%Third-down rate80%
0Red-zone touchdowns6
4Explosive plays4
18First downs25
4Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Raiders: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.28Colts: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Raiders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.31Colts: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Raiders: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.24Colts: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 65 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Colts’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Colts 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Colts12.2%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was IND's play-action rate, 20.0% against a season mean of 28.1% — and IND swings 9.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%68 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%68 snaps
61Jordan MeredithC · Every snap100%68 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%68 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Full-time88%60 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time88%60 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
2Ashton JeantyRB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
18Jack BechWR · Heavy rotation53%36 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational47%32 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational47%32 snaps
86Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational46%31 snaps
81Alex BachmanWR · Situational12%8 snaps
46Carter RunyonTE · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Eric StokesCBLeki FotuDTCaleb RogersGGermaine PrattOLBBrock BowersTEMichael MayerTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kenny PickettQBDJ GlazeT
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
71Matt GoncalvesG · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Full-time98%65 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Full-time89%59 snaps
17Daniel JonesQB · Full-time89%59 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Full-time89%59 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Full-time89%59 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time82%54 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
84Tyler WarrenTE · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational45%30 snaps
75Jalen TravisT · Situational17%11 snaps
21DJ GiddensRB · Situational14%9 snaps
6Anthony GouldWR · Situational11%7 snaps
63Danny PinterC · Situational11%7 snaps
68Dalton TuckerG · Situational11%7 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Situational11%7 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Situational9%6 snaps
26Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational8%5 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Kenny Moore IICBEric JohnsonDTBuddy JohnsonMLBRiley LeonardQBTyler GoodsonRBLuke TenutaTAlec PierceWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Cole punt−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.
Q2 9:38 · Raiders · 4th & 17 at LV 36 · gained nothing · -4.44 EP · −9.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 88 yards from the IND 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
48%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.2064%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.3191%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1635%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.2725%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4433%
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter30 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 38
Raiders3Colts0
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Colts 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Raiders 46
2nd quarter60 plays
Raiders3Colts6
Raiders3Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 11
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 43
Raiders3Colts13
Raiders3Colts14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 2
Intercepted11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 11
Raiders3Colts20
Touchdown20 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Raiders 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Colts 39
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 38
Raiders3Colts26
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Raiders 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 34
Raiders3Colts32
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 2
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 44
Raiders3Colts38
Raiders3Colts40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 6
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Colts 34
4th quarter33 plays
Raiders6Colts40
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 5
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 49
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Colts 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
