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2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

6

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

40

IND -7 ✓U 46.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 40–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:38, IND +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑LV ↓
Q2 · 11:38LV 3 — IND 6IND ball · 2nd & 10IND 68%

(11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 11:38IND +8% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 14:21IND +7% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to LV 21 for 19 yards (36-K.Kelly).
  3. Q1 · 4:54LV +7% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at IND 14 for -11 yards (94-T.Lewis).
  4. Q2 · 9:38LV +7% win prob(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:24LV Field goal

    (3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 0
  2. Q2 · 11:38IND Touchdown

    (11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 7
  3. Q2 · 8:01IND Touchdown

    (8:01) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 14
  4. Q2 · 0:20IND Touchdown

    (:20) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 20
  5. Q3 · 6:58IND Touchdown

    (6:58) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 26
  6. Q3 · 5:55IND Touchdown

    (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-A.Abdullah up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 32
  7. Q3 · 2:30IND Touchdown

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 40
  8. Q4 · 11:43LV Field goal

    (11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 6 — IND 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersColts
Offensive plays6561
Total yards296319 (edge)
Yards per play4.65.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.210.28 (edge)
Success rate49%51% (edge)
Dropback rate63%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.24 (edge)
Third downs8/148/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps1825 (edge)
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

25/36, 228 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

20/29, 212 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.4 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

17 att, 66 yds, 3 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Tre TuckerWR

4/6 for 62 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Ashton DulinWR

2/5 for 55 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 29591:49Punt
2LVLV 1416809:50Field goal +3
3INDIND 1715936:48Touchdown +7
4LVLV 306162:04Punt
5INDLV 8531:33Touchdown +7
6LVLV 2510494:03Interception
7INDIND 1215633:38Touchdown +6
8LVLV 354260:15Missed field goal
9LVLV 266122:03Punt
10INDIND 3212686:03Touchdown +6
11LVLV 30340:35Interception
12INDLV 6360:30Touchdown +6
13LVLV 35592:02Turnover on downs
14INDLV 444461:20Touchdown +8
15LVLV 3414305:48Field goal +3
16INDIND 189314:54Punt
17LVLV 1113706:45End of game

8 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 93 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith25/36228024-10.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty14674.80-0.7
Raheem Mostert7223.10-3.2
Tre Tucker199.000.8
Geno Smith382.700.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tre Tucker4662017%3.8
Ashton Jeanty5742019%-0.6
Albert Okwuegbunam5636017%1.6
Jakobi Meyers4632017%2.0
Jack Bech3527014%-3.4
Ian Thomas332008%1.2
Alex Bachman11903%0.8
Dont'e Thornton Jr.02006%-8.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Chinn550.001
Isaiah Pola-Mao410.000
Elandon Roberts230.000
Devin White320.000
Malcolm Koonce220.000
Kyu Blu Kelly210.000
Adam Butler300.000
Jonah Laulu110.000
Charles Snowden110.000
Maxx Crosby200.001

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones20/2921220012.4
Anthony Richardson1/29000-1.2
Tyler Warren0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor17663.934.6
DJ Giddens5224.400.1
Ameer Abdullah263.011.1
Daniel Jones122.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ashton Dulin2555016%3.1
Josh Downs6854026%4.7
Tyler Warren4444113%4.0
Michael Pittman5639119%1.3
Jonathan Taylor3420013%0.1
Anthony Richardson11903%0.5
DJ Giddens01003%-0.6
Adonai Mitchell01003%-1.7
Bernhard Raimann01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Austin Ajiake450.000
Nick Cross350.001
DeForest Buckner331.000
Neville Gallimore420.000
Zaire Franklin331.000
Charvarius Ward410.000
Mekhi Blackmon410.011
Samson Ebukam311.000
Rodney Thomas210.000
Joe Bachie030.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -7
Closing total
46.5
LV moneyline
+285
IND moneyline
-360

Colts closed -7 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 46 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
LV 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Shane Steichen