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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 5
It turned at Q4 4:50, 1st and 10, on Jaylen Waddle — 31.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:50, Dolphins +31.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:50 · 1st and 10
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.36 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mitchell Evans's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mitchell Evans4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce YoungLead never changed again+724–279 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 53 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Panthers 4.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, is past their previous high of +6.5 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate, 21.2%, is past their previous high of 10.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
CAR's blitz rate sent, 15.0%, is past their previous low of 18.2% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.2% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points. · −0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins8.9 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +14.5 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+2.29× that swing) · 53 snaps
Panthers-14.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Dolphins66.7%leaned — passed early · +15.7 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 39 early downs
Panthers42.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Dolphins20.0%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers24.2%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
Panthers66.7%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Dolphins42.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Panthers15.0%leaned — sat back · −13.3 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 25%
Tendencies room →Dolphins21.2%leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Panthers7.5%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
MIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.9 pts, 14.5 points above their season mean of -5.6 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
27/36, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
19/30, 198 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rico Dowdle banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 32.4 | +12.8 | 67% | 50% | 15% | 0% | 23 car, 206 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 28 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.0 | +7.5 | 89% | 85% | 26% | 51% | 6/9, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 22.7 | +3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/36, 256 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.8 | +7.1 | 58% | 68% | 15% | 20% | 5/5, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | −0.5 | 87% | 88% | 21% | 4% | 10 car, 16 yd · 6/7, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.3 | +1.7 | 90% | 91% | 30% | 49% | 6/8, 73 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 198 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +4.1 | 79% | 79% | 11% | 21% | 2/3, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +3.6 | 37% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −2.9 | 53% | 45% | 15% | 11% | 4/5, 22 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.4 | 27% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 2 car, 10 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −5.0 | 58% | 63% | 15% | 7% | 4/5, 0 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 3.9 | +0.7 | 20% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 4 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.4 | 20% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| James MitchellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 24% | 21% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 76% | 74% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.0 | 43% | 59% | 11% | 9% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | 29% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | -0.2 | −1.9 | 25% | 25% | 0% | — | 3 car, -2 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
Q4 3:31 · Panthers · 4th & 5 at MIA 33 · gained 17 · +3.26 EP · +27.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 85 yards from the CAR 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins3
Panthers0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Dolphins9Panthers0Dolphins10Panthers0Dolphins16Panthers0Dolphins17Panthers0Dolphins17Panthers6Dolphins17Panthers7Dolphins17Panthers10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Dolphins17Panthers13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Dolphins17Panthers19Dolphins17Panthers20How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins23Panthers20Dolphins24Panthers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Dolphins24Panthers26Dolphins24Panthers27How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 27/36 | 256 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Ollie Gordon II |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 9 | 110 | 1 | 26% | +10.4 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/30 | 198 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_05_MIA_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| -2 |
| -0.7 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| +10.4 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 21% | +0.8 |
| Julian Hill | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 15% | −0.8 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −4.1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 23 | 206 | 9.0 | 1 | +9.4 |
| Trevor Etienne | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 30% | +6.5 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | +1.0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +3.2 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11% | −3.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rozeboom | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lathan Ransom | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Thornton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
