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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami24
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina27
Miami Dolphins 24 at Carolina Panthers 27. Final.
Dolphins -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 5
Carolina Panthers 27, Dolphins 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:50, 1st and 10, on Jaylen Waddle — 31.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:50 · 1st and 10
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 44.5 ✓
Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:50, Dolphins +31.7% win probability on one snap.
31.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jimmy Horn Jr.PanthersQ4 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
20.4pts
Tua TagovailoaPanthersQ4 1:46(1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 15 for -7 yards (91-P.Jones).
15.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.36 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Dolphins161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.7 for PanthersExpected points −4.09 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:50CAR +32% win prob(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:31CAR +20% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
4th · 1:46MIA +16% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 15 for -7 yards (91-P.Jones).
4th · 9:09CAR +14% win prob(9:09) 5-R.Dowdle right guard to MIA 32 for 43 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
3rd · 14:53CAR +14% win prob(14:53) 5-R.Dowdle right end to MIA 17 for 53 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
1st · 6:37MIA +13% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIA 36 for -6 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-2-B.Chubb at MIA 40. 2-B.Chubb to MIA 42 for 2 yards (82-T.Tremble).
1st · 11:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mitchell Evans's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:08Riley Patterson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
2nd15:00De'Von Achane·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+710–0
2nd10:53Darren Waller·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+717–0
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Dolphins: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.16Panthers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Dolphins: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Dolphins: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.36Panthers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 53 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Panthers 4.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, is past their previous high of +6.5 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.2% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Panthers7.5%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.9 pts, 14.5 points above their season mean of -5.6 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
52Patrick PaulT · Every snap100%55 snaps
72Jonah SavaiinaeaG · Every snap100%55 snaps
79Larry BoromT · Every snap100%55 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%55 snaps
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%55 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time89%49 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Full-time87%48 snaps
18Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation71%39 snaps
6Malik WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation58%32 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Heavy rotation58%32 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational29%16 snaps
31Ollie Gordon IIRB · Rotational25%14 snaps
80Tanner ConnerTE · Situational20%11 snaps
84Tahj WashingtonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
82Dee EskridgeWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Storm DuckCBZeek BiggersDTQuinn EwersQBJaylen WrightRBCedrick Wilson Jr.WR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
Q4 3:31 · Panthers · 4th & 5 at MIA 33 · gained 17 · +3.26 EP · +27.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 85 yards from the CAR 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2859%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.2177%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.1467%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2730%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4278%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+1.1467%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Dolphins3Panthers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Panthers 14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended14 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Panthers 5
2nd quarter52 plays
Dolphins9Panthers0
Dolphins10Panthers0
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 32
Dolphins16Panthers0
Dolphins17Panthers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 4
Dolphins17Panthers6
Dolphins17Panthers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins17Panthers10
Field goal18 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Dolphins 12
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins17Panthers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Dolphins 17
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 37
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 28
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 37
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 45
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins17Panthers19
Dolphins17Panthers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Dolphins 1
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins23Panthers20
Dolphins24Panthers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Panthers 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins24Panthers26
Dolphins24Panthers27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Dolphins 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -1.5
Closing total
44.5
Dolphins moneyline
-120
Panthers moneyline
+100
Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Dolphins 6 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Dave Canales
CAR +11% win prob
(11:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to CAR 14 for 34 yards (21-N.Scott).
4th · 6:14CAR +9% win prob(6:14) 77-Y.Nijman reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
