2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Miami Dolphins
24
Carolina PanthersWinner
27
Carolina Panthers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:50, CAR +32% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 4:50CAR +32% win prob(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 3:31CAR +20% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
- Q4 · 1:46MIA +16% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 15 for -7 yards (91-P.Jones).
- Q4 · 9:09CAR +14% win prob(9:09) 5-R.Dowdle right guard to MIA 32 for 43 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 9:08MIA Field goal
(9:08) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CAR 0 - Q2 · 15:00MIA Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — CAR 0 - Q2 · 10:53MIA Touchdown
(10:53) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — CAR 0 - Q2 · 3:28CAR Touchdown
(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — CAR 7 - Q2 · 0:04CAR Field goal
(:04) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 17 — CAR 10 - Q3 · 12:19CAR Field goal
(12:19) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 17 — CAR 13 - Q4 · 6:14CAR Touchdown
(6:14) 77-Y.Nijman reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — CAR 20 - Q4 · 4:50MIA Touchdown
(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 24 — CAR 20 - Q4 · 2:03CAR Touchdown
(2:03) 9-B.Young pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 24 — CAR 27
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 53 | 62 |
| Total yards | 248 | 421 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.10 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Success rate | 36% | 47% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.27 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.44 | 0.36 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 5/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · MIA
27/36, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
19/30, 198 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 27 | 12 | 48 | 5:57 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 31 | 6 | 24 | 2:32 | Fumble | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 42 | 15 | 58 | 6:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 28 | 3 | 4 | 0:54 | Interception | |
| 5 | MIA | CAR 49 | 6 | 44 | 3:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 24 | 14 | 81 | 7:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 24 | 11 | 75 | 1:47 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 30 | 6 | 44 | 2:45 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 17 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 14 | 5 | 19 | 2:41 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIA | MIA 24 | 6 | 13 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 2 | 7 | 26 | 4:22 | Punt | |
| 14 | MIA | MIA 34 | 4 | 3 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 25 | 4 | 4 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 20 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 15 | 8 | 61 | 4:02 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 43 | 5 | 57 | 1:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 17 | 10 | 78 | 2:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 22 | 5 | -7 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 21 | CAR | CAR 27 | 4 | 5 | 1:03 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 27/36 | 256 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | -2.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 9 | 110 | 1 | 26% | 10.4 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 15% | 10.4 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 21% | 0.8 |
| Julian Hill | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 15% | -0.8 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | 0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15% | -4.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Carolina Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/30 | 198 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 23 | 206 | 9.0 | 1 | 9.4 |
| Trevor Etienne | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 30% | 6.5 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 11% | 0.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | 1.0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11% | 3.2 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | 0.9 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 0.9 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11% | -3.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -0.3 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4% | 1.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rozeboom | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lathan Ransom | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Thornton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- MIA -1.5
- Closing total
- 44.5
- MIA moneyline
- -120
- CAR moneyline
- +100
Dolphins closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Bank of America Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 77°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- MIA 6 days · CAR 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike McDaniel vs Dave Canales